OPINION Why Farmajo is destined to lose

[TabK]

The current political impasse in Somalia can be seen as a continuation of the civil war.

On one side you have the winners of the civil war namely USC + SPM + SSDF (they surrendered to Afweyne in the end, but that is beside the point), whilst on the other you have a confluence of those who lost the Somali civil war trying for a come back.

As someone who has no dog in this race, the situation is quite clear:

Farmajo is supported by smaller economically unproductive clans who in the past benefitted immensely from a centralised government they could leach off. All economically productive groups (as well as Puntland region) want him out. Farmajo's only card is the good will of the international community, and they seem to be losing patience with him.

Farmajo probably knows he is on borrowed time, he lived through the civil war and experienced the defeat first hand. I imagine his plan is to get some concessions for his clan and then peacefully handover to USC.

 

[Mujahid Nur Marehan]

Farmaajo has the support of Sade people who live and control Gedo, and Middle Juba and lower Juba. Our next plan is to attack that Oromo guy called Madoobe and send him back to Bali Oromia.

 

[Bariire]

One thing I applaud Farmaajo is that he woke Hawiyes up and United them, but I must say that had neo-USC really wanted Farmaajo expelled they would have ages ago like miskiinka Abdulahi Yuusuf (Aun) was.

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[MrDeeni1]

The current political impasse in Somalia can be seen as a continuation of the civil war.

On one side you have the winners of the civil war namely USC + SPM + SSDF (they surrendered to Afweyne in the end, but that is beside the point), whilst on the other you have a confluence of those who lost the Somali civil war trying for a come back.

As someone who has no dog in this race, the situation is quite clear:

Farmajo is supported by smaller economically unproductive clans who in the past benefitted immensely from a centralised government they could leach off. All economically productive groups (as well as Puntland region) want him out. Farmajo's only card is the good will of the international community, and they seem to be losing patience with him.

Farmajo probably knows he is on borrowed time, he lived through the civil war and experienced the defeat first hand. I imagine his plan is to get some concessions for his clan and then peacefully handover to USC.

The faster people realise what farmaajo represents the faster these sort of threads won’t exist.

farmaajo represents “party politics” entering Somalia. N iyo N is a new form of politics that Somalis haven’t seen before.

what is the difference between someone like QorQor or Roble and someone like HSM they are all isku rer. But if the former came to power their vision for Somalia is a lot different than the latter. Same for deeni/madobe or farmaajo both are darood but have different ideology.

Conclusion

Somalis have moved past *pure* tribal politics and entered party politics.

its now simple fight

con-federation : madobe , deeni bihii ect

federalist: farmaajo qorqor ect.

 

[Mozart]

The faster people realise what farmaajo represents the faster these sort of threads won’t exist.

farmaajo represents “party politics” entering Somalia. N iyo N is a new form of politics that Somalis haven’t seen before.

what is the difference between someone like QorQor or Roble and someone like HSM they are all isku rer. But if the former came to power their vision for Somalia is a lot different than the latter. Same for deeni/madobe or farmaajo both are darood but have different ideology.

Conclusion

Somalis have moved past *pure* tribal politics and entered party politics.

its now simple fight

con-federation : madobe , deeni bihii ect

federalist: farmaajo qorqor ect.

Farmaajo doesn’t represent party politics. If I vote conservative in the UK, I know exactly what I’m voting for regarding their policies. You say Farmaajo is a federalist, I think he’s a centralist. You can’t be so ambiguous on something so big and claim you’re unlike the other candidates.The N&N slogan is a copied one too. He hasn’t introduced anything different in Somali politics

 

[codewebsduh]

The fight is between clan states and centralism. Funny how Somaliland doesn't allow clan states yet Somalia should.

 

[Murax]

Farmaajo’s Siyaasad is on a different level. Look at the miskiin clown show. 30 So called Presidential hopefuls who behind the scenes hate each other Vs a Well entrenched political party from different clans (Farmaajo, Rooble, Finnish, Laftagareen, GuudLaawe, QoorQoor, Mursal, Mahdi Gulleed) I can go on. Security forces in GorGor, Haramcad that are comprised of young, mixed clan forces, not the clan militias under Xassan Sh.

The election delay is actually great, as the victory over Kenya In Shaa Allah is a guarantee. The FGS being in place with that victory, will give them even more momentum.

 

[Mckenzie]

Farmaajo will not opt to leave and give concessions. Infact i read 1991 reports Afweyne also didn't want to leave, in his own words he wanted to die fighting to the end. He viewed it as a weakness because he knew the optics of leaving and coming back were much worse. Fortunately his family baa u miyir qabay as fighting a losing war with your female family members inside the bunker with you only spells bad trouble. Saynab Macalin is from Xamar though unfortunately she won't move to Buurdhuubo

I laugh at Kacaanists who pick a bone with Sharif/HSM who are atleast using legal means to come back, their papa Afwayne dragged his clan into two attempted comebacks that ended in defeat

 

[Aaliyah Al Sufyaani]

Farmaajo is lucky that the IC haven’t fully turned on him yet.

 

[TabK]

The faster people realise what farmaajo represents the faster these sort of threads won’t exist.

farmaajo represents “party politics” entering Somalia. N iyo N is a new form of politics that Somalis haven’t seen before.

what is the difference between someone like QorQor or Roble and someone like HSM they are all isku rer. But if the former came to power their vision for Somalia is a lot different than the latter. Same for deeni/madobe or farmaajo both are darood but have different ideology.

This is demonstrably inaccurate.

Virtually every single supporter of Farmajo on this board belongs to his clan.

This is as further away from party politics as you can get.

Farmajo's base is pretty much the small clans that were defeated in the Somali civil war. A central government serves them well as most of them would have very little influence otherwise. These are the same clans that benefitted from corruption during Afweyne's era.

 

[Calaf]

Farmaajo is lucky that the IC haven’t fully turned on him yet.

With that Hassan Shiekh's friend indictment, I don't think the IC will flip on him anytime soon.

 

[MrDeeni1]

This is demonstrably inaccurate.

Virtually every single supporter of Farmajo on this board belongs to his clan.

This is as further away from party politics as you can get.

Farmajo's base is pretty much the small clans that were defeated in the Somali civil war. A central government serves them well as most of them would have very little influence otherwise. These are the same clans that benefitted from corruption during Afweyne's era.

that’s such a lazy analysis . If Roble and Qorqor become president after him watch how the same people who support farmaajo now will support them 100%.

you can continue to support little clan enclaves all you want I want my president to be a person whos going to have Authority over states like Puntland , jubbaland and somaliland.

farmaajo 4 years
QorQor/Roble 8 years insallah

GUUL N IYO N !!

 

[TabK]

that’s such a lazy analysis . If Roble and Qorqor become president after him watch how the same people who support farmaajo now will support them 100%.

you can continue to support little clan enclaves all you want I want my president to be a person whos going to have Authority over states like Puntland , jubbaland and somaliland.

farmaajo 4 years
QorQor/Roble 8 years insallah

GUUL N IYO N !!

You are evading.

Your claim of Farmajo representing party politics was quickly shot down, it is undeniable that 99% of his supporters on this board belong to his immediate clan.

There are more landers who are delusional enough to support a new union with Somalia than there are non Marehans who support NN.

You are very far from party politics, continue rooting for your uncle by all means, but dont be stupid enough to try and claim you are doing so out of nationalism.

 

[reer]

realistic options

-jileec farmaajo
-hawiye guy who sold hawiye women to the gulf (qoslaaye)
- kheyre
-macalin dugsi who went from swearing by Allah threatening to remove farmajo to calaacaling for a peaceful protest

farmajo ignored his clan for 3 years and was criticized but @TabK conveniently has selective amnesia to when marehan in sspot were trashing him left and right. when it morphed into oohin about siad barre and 91 and civil war we knew where to stand. firmly with our adeer. the mucaarad hopeless banaanbax went out on video and said "farmaajo waa marehan blah blah".

people on sspot are seriously out of the loop. the relevant mucaarad wanted instability so farmajo flees and they can have elections WITHOUT him. this is jaalle cheeseman's election to lose because of the hopelessness of madasha.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Farmaajo has the support of Sade people who live and control Gedo, and Middle Juba and lower Juba. Our next plan is to attack that Oromo guy called Madoobe and send him back to Bali Oromia.

You just mention the epicentre of Abaar.

 

[Distant1]

Does he want to be re-elected?

 

[MrDeeni1]

You are evading.

Your claim of Farmajo representing party politics was quickly shot down, it is undeniable that 99% of his supporters on this board belong to his immediate clan.

There are more landers who are delusional enough to support a new union with Somalia than there are non Marehans who support NN.

You are very far from party politics, continue rooting for your uncle by all means, but dont be stupid enough to try and claim you are doing so out of nationalism.

saaxib are you deaf. If it’s about TRIBE AND QORQOR OR ROBLE IS PRESIDENT N&N supporters WOULD STILL SUPPORT THEM BECAUSE THEY ARE WADANI AND N&N

What’s so hard to understand about that stop projection bro. Wallahi I have never supported farmaajo for tribe even if he happens to share that with me.

And I will prove it when he’s succeeded by your tribesman who IS N&n be that’s isaaq or hawiye or .5.

 

[TabK]

saaxib are you deaf. If it’s about TRIBE AND QORQOR OR ROBLE IS PRESIDENT N&N supporters WOULD STILL SUPPORT THEM BECAUSE THEY ARE WADANI AND N&N

What’s so hard to understand about that stop projection bro. Wallahi I have never supported farmaajo for tribe even if he happens to share that with me.

And I will prove it when he’s succeeded by your tribesman who IS N&n be that’s isaaq or hawiye or .5.

You are trying to evade with ifs and coulds. We are not discussing the future.

You are not denying that the the vast majority, to the tune of 99% of all Farmajo supporters on this board hail from his immediate subclan.

This is tribalism in its purest form. End of story.

 

[The Honored one]

 

[Jiron]

Farmaajo enjoys wide support from diverse groups from every region, and it’s extremely dishonest to deny that. Whether he wins the upcoming election or not, it’s a fact that he still stands a good chance. He might not be ur politician of choice and that’s ok, just be ready for an outcome that u may not like, just as much as an outcome that u will welcome. It’s important to accept whatever the case will be