Why cant Somaliland become a federal state?

[JamalFarah]

Can it happen? Maybe, but is it likely?

So far, no Somali administration has really tried to make amends. SL currently control about one-third of Somalia. Why would they give that up just to be a third rang player in the power struggles between Hawiye and Darood? Relying on military force won't work; it would lead to too much bloodshed and renewed hatred.

For reunification to be possible, there needs to be some kind of incentive, either economic or military, and guarantees that the dictaroship of the Barre era won't happen again. But realistically, this can only happen once Somalia itself is stable and flourishing.


Another option could be a friendly breakup. Regions of Somaliland wanting to rejoin can choose to do so, with a peaceful border and an economic agreement promoting cooperation and shared laws. Pretty much a Somali-EU.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

If you were to draw a north-south line dividing northern Somalia in half, it would run through Oog. 50% of northern Somalia is east of Oog.

These people think the Ethiopians are as stupid as they are. Ethiopia will never set a precedent for unilateral declaration of independence (UDI). This deal will never amount to anything because recognition is not on the table.

You guys really try these misleading statements - "east of oog" like the whole of Sanaag is aligned with your interests.

Somaliland is the only case of pre-existing borders which you guys really try to negate but it's the most important principle in this case.

What happens to the eastern regions is up to them. They can negotiate with the Somaliland government for their political and economic inclusion or they can remain autonomous.

I don't see any timeline for the FGS to become a competent and capable authority to negotiate the issue of Somaliland. Recent airspace issues have demonstrated a lack of capacity to stick to past agreements. It's looking like Somalia is headed for messy divorce and the eastern regions are going to be stuck in the middle of it. The US is trying to push the day off indefinitely but it's not their place to tell other countries whether or not they can recognize Somaliland.

 

[Yami]

I just hope you know HSM is keeping your secessionist dream alive. Not sure why he’s doing it, but previous administration had you guys locked up. , Hassan freed you.

Irirnimo is one hell of a drug brotha

 

[Yazi]

Of course only a braindead Isaaq wouldn’t think losing the capital of a region within his fake “country” kills any dent in having recognition. You’d have to control your entire borders and there’s no hope of ever doing that. We both know this but you try and lie to yourself.

The only reason Bihi went the Ethiopian route is to cover up that disastrous loss in Sool. You can have a million MOU with Ethiopia or anyone else, recognition will never come. But I want you guys to keep trying so the jokes will always keep coming lol.

I don't deny it's MBC way to cover his mishandling of the war and perhaps even delay elections but to claim the recognition rests in the deserts of eastern Sool is hilarious. What strategic importance does Lascanood have that will secure recognition for Somaliland? Nothing. It's actually a burden on the budget. You seem to forget many countries emerged with disputed regions. Kashmir didn't prevent Pakistan separating from India nor did Abiye prevent South Sudan from separation from Sudan and countless other examples... We can always dispute the territory as part of ours until we get the means to capture it again that's why I find it funny that you guys claim your dry deserts somehow holds the key for Somaliland recognition, talk about being divorced from reality.

 

[Knaan99]

For reunification to be possible, there needs to be some kind of incentive, either economic or military, and guarantees that the dictaroship of the Barre era won't happen again. But realistically, this can only happen once Somalia itself is stable and flourishing.


Another option could be a friendly breakup. Regions of Somaliland wanting to rejoin can choose to do so, with a peaceful border and an economic agreement promoting cooperation and shared laws. Pretty much a Somali-EU.

The first option is unlikely.
Isaaqs who are barely 3m want to be half of . The more “special” status xamar gives them the more others will copy them. “Why not us? barre killed us too” metoo will be their slogan.

The 2nd option is even more unlikely. Unless they drop their claim over British Somaliland(which they will never do)
Isaaq land + their sidekick is possible. Isaaq land alone is very much possible.
But known their elites, they believe Ethiopia will help them capture SSC lol.

Also, u have to take inferior complexity into account. It’s like what Qatar is to UAE and Saudi Arabia. Their emir was caught on tape saying he will pay anything and everything to break up Saudi Arabia.
Did Saudis had an Arab barre that massacred the Qataries ?? Nope.
It’s simply inferior complexity. Or Kuwait was doing to sadaam in late 80’s who was fighting Iran on behalf the Sunni Arabs. Pure inferior complexity that angered sadaam so much and let to first gulf war.
And unlike Qatar, isaaqs will always view their darod neighbors as existential threat and will feel inferior to darod & hawiya and will legit become a 5th column long term headache. But now with a sovereignty state.

 

[Yazi]

If you were to draw a north-south line dividing northern Somalia in half, it would run through Oog. 50% of northern Somalia is east of Oog.

These people think the Ethiopians are as stupid as they are. Ethiopia will never set a precedent for unilateral declaration of independence (UDI). This deal will never amount to anything because recognition is not on the table.

WTF is northern Somalia? We don't claim Puntland so stick to Somaliland claimed borders. East of Oog & Ceerigaabo are like 30% of Somaliland's territory. In your delusional mind you think we have to capture Puntland to become recognized. I even saw an eariler post from you saying it's time we centerlize the state even if it has to be under Hawiye to form a national army that could repulse Ethiopia. The MoU shocked your Darood supremacists to the point changing your sacred stand over federalism and autonomy. Who would thought the MoU would shake the core of Darood everywhere, even Puntland offered their jetty Garcaad to be used by Ethiopia after the MoU of fears of missing out. Admit it. We checkmated your Somalia to the point you dropped a long standing believe of Puntland's autonomy.

 

[Ozark]

I don't deny it's MBC way to cover his mishandling of the war and perhaps even delay elections but to claim the recognition rests in the deserts of eastern Sool is hilarious. What strategic importance does Lascanood have that will secure recognition for Somaliland? Nothing. It's actually a burden on the budget. You seem to forget many countries emerged with disputed regions. Kashmir didn't prevent Pakistan separating from India nor did Abiye prevent South Sudan from separation from Sudan and countless other examples... We can always dispute the territory as part of ours until we get the means to capture it again that's why I find it funny that you guys claim your dry deserts somehow holds the key for Somaliland recognition, talk about being divorced from reality.

Imagine thinking Pakistan and India in the late 40s is anyway comparable to present day northern Somalia. And also thinking the ethnic troubles in Sudan is also anyway comparable to idoorland. Imagine thinking that you can military lose a whole region and then having already lost 75% of another (Sanaag) and having the keys to recognition? A place like Sool that has potential of oil in holhol and having a “border” with Somalia has no “strategic importance”? Talk about being divorced from reality. There’s delusional and then there’s idoors. Without Sool and Sanaag, there’s no hope.

WTF is northern Somalia? We don't claim Puntland so stick to Somaliland claimed borders.

Literally no one cares what you claim. Your recognized as Somalia and that will be the case till judgement day.

 

[Yazi]

Imagine thinking Pakistan and India in the late 40s is anyway comparable to present day northern Somalia. And also thinking the ethnic troubles in Sudan is also anyway comparable to idoorland. Imagine thinking that you can military lose a whole region and then having already lost 75% of another (Sanaag) and having the keys to recognition. A place like Sool that has potential of oil in holhol and having a “border” with Somalia has no “strategic importance”. Talk about being divorced from reality. There’s delusional and then there’s idoors.

Literally no one cares what you claim. Your recognized as Somalia and that will be the case till judgement day.

All these mental gymnastics and you still haven't provided a rebuttal. There is a precedent of countries sperating despite not controlling their entire claimed territory, yes or no? What is there in eastern Sool that will somehow grant Somaliland immediate recognition? Nothing. The oil also exists in Western Sool, Togdheer and Berbera. We still control Caynaba district so we still claims over Sool and we also control half of Sanaag including the regional capital so rest assured Sool & Sanaag will always be claimed by Somaliland even if we don't control Darood areas. Didn't your new admin also claim Caynaba at some point? This is the game. We lost Lascanood in 2003 did that bring us recognition, no. We held Lascanood for 15 years did that bring us recognition, no. So what the hell are blabbing about? That's what I mean when I said you guys think highly of yourselves. It's been 6 months since you established your new admin, did the FGS the weakest entity in the Somali politics recognize it? No. Believe me you guys are not important, you're no one's core strategic interest you're just a free way that connects us to southern Somalia lol

 

[Ozark]

All these mental gymnastics and you still haven't provided a rebuttal. There is a precedent of countries sperating despite not controlling their entire claimed territory, yes or no? What is there in eastern Sool that will somehow grant Somaliland immediate recognition? Nothing. The oil also exists in Western Sool, Togdheer and Berbera. We still control Caynaba district so we still claims over Sool and we also control half of Sanaag including the regional capital so rest assured Sool & Sanaag will always be claimed by Somaliland even if we don't control Darood areas. Didn't your new admin also claim Caynaba at some point? This is the game. We lost Lascanood in 2003 did that bring us recognition, no. We held Lascanood for 15 years did that bring us recognition, no. So what the hell are blabbing about? That's what I mean when I said you guys think highly of yourselves. It's been 6 months since you established your new admin, did the TFG the weakest entity in the Somali government recognize it? No. Believe me you guys are not important, you're no one's core strategic interest you're just a free way that connects us to southern Somalia lol

Leave it to a idoor to bring up comparisons that have nothing to do with them. Those precedents don’t apply to you. First of all, India and Pakistan were seperated from colonial powers and south Sudan were given their divorce papers from Khartoum. Something Mogadishu will never give you. You have no case for recognition. And no one lives in caynabo, it’s a ghost town without any toilets. As for Sanaag, the majority of it (warsangeli) have zero to do with you. And lol at you saying there’s no strategic importance but when I list some, you go ahead and list the same things I did (oil) lol.

So genius, without controlling your borders, you have no national sovereignty. Even if you did control it, your chances of recognition would be 1%. Without it, it’s 0. Hope your catching on.

 

[Yazi]

Even if you did control it, your chances of recognition would be 1%. Without it, it’s 0. Hope your catching on.

All this smokescreen only to end up on my original conclusion. I'm glad you at least admitted on the grand scheme of things, you guys don't really matter. By your own admission, Sool & Sanaag adds 1% to Somaliland probability of recognition geez I'm ok with the other 99% wallahi you played yourself!

 

[Ozark]

All this smokescreen only to end up on my original conclusion. I'm glad you at least admitted on the grand scheme of things, you guys don't really matter. By your own admission, Sool & Sanaag adds 1% to Somaliland probability of recognition geez I'm ok with the other 99% wallahi you played yourself!

Your not getting what I’m saying. You’ll always be at 0% chance for recognition. Simply controlling your borders will bump you up to 1%, which will never happen.

 

[Yazi]

Your not getting what I’m saying. You’ll always be at 0% chance for recognition. Simply controlling your borders will bump you up to 1%, which will never happen.

Are you dense? That's your opinion, but even on your opinion you knew deep down Sool & Sanaag are strategically inconsequential adding to 1% of Somaliland's recognition caee. Even you can not deny that 90% of Somaliland recognition case rests on Berbera & Lughaya. Without them we're still in state of limbo like the past 30 years. However we're lucky that Abiye came to power in 2018 and recently made it very clear that access to sea is his paramount priority. Everything is falling in it's place nicely which is why Darood are having panic attacks about the MoU.



Even you, an SSC advocate, admitted the insignificance of his regions to Somaliland's quest for independence. That's alone is a very telling sign of your own awareness of lacking strategic importance.

 

[Ozark]

Even you, an SSC advocate, admitted the insignificance of his regions to Somaliland's quest for independence. That's alone is a very telling sign of your strategic importance.

Your dense. I did not say it has no significance. I argued the opposite. Can you not read? Lol

However we're lucky that Abiye came to power in 2018 and recently made it very clear that access to sea is his paramount priority. Everything is falling in it's place nicely which is why Darood are having panic attacks about the MoU.

No we’re not panicking. I actually want you to be an Ethiopian slave. It’s Xamar that is fighting for their sovereignty and there winning in the diplomatic arena over Abiy.

 

[Ximan iyo Xadeed]

Are you dense? That's your opinion, but even on your opinion you knew deep down Sool & Sanaag are strategically inconsequential adding to 1% of Somaliland's recognition caee. Even you can not deny that 90% of Somaliland recognition case rests on Berbera & Lughaya. Without them we're still in state of limbo like the past 30 years. However we're lucky that Abiye came to power in 2018 and recently made it very clear that access to sea is his paramount priority. Everything is falling in it's place nicely which is why Darood are having panic attacks about the MoU.



Even you, an SSC advocate, admitted the insignificance of his regions to Somaliland's quest for independence. That's alone is a very telling sign of your own awareness of lacking strategic importance.

Google map is your friend


God-Barwaaqo to Jidali is already 20% of Sanaag

Yubbe(Qaarar) to Cawsane is an extra 40% without including Dhaxamo, Xagal and traditional grazing land


That would leave Isaaq with a 40% of the landmass


Coastline = more towards Isaaq

Landwise = Harti

Most of Ceerigaabo villages are in the East and South respectively

 

[Yazi]

Your dense. I did not say it has no significance. I argued the opposite. Can you not read? Lol

No we’re not panicking. I actually want you to be an Ethiopian slave. It’s Xamar that is fighting for their sovereignty and there winning in the diplomatic arena over Abiy.

What holds more importance to Somaliland recognition. Sea access for Ethiopia or Sool & Sanaag? I rest my case.

 

[Yazi]

Google map is your friend


God-Barwaaqo to Jidali is already 10% of Sanaag

Yubbe(Qaarar) to Cawsane is an extra 40% without including Dhaxamo, Xagal and traditional grazing land


That would leave Isaaq with a 45% of the landmass


Coastline = more towards Isaaq

Landwise = Harti

Let's go with your logic, Somaliland controls 45% of the Landmass of Sanaag & 60% of the population including Ceerigaabo city. And then what? Did that bring about Somaliland's recognition? Will controlling the entirety of Sool & Sanaag brings about recognition, no. That's my whole point and I'm from Sool. The area might have potential for urbanization and development and even strategic depth in case of invasion from Somalia but is it crucial for Somaliland? No. The critical heartland of Somaliland is from Berbera to Hargeisa to Kalabaydh & Wajaale. Even Burco in central Somaliland is not strategically important not for the survival of Somaliland or Ethiopia's access to sea. Somaliland waa Galbeed.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Your not getting what I’m saying. You’ll always be at 0% chance for recognition. Simply controlling your borders will bump you up to 1%, which will never happen.

That's not how it works.

Somaliland's recognition hinges on two factors: 1) Interests (ports, oil, red sea etc) and 2) AU principles most importantly having pre-existing borders.

The eastern regions might be a reason for some countries not to recognize but I can't say how many. Most will be worried about the unilateral independence.

What really matters? Getting some recognition (even a handful of countries) and help (military and economic) to strengthen the Somaliland state against failed state aggression.

Somaliland has stood on it's own and with some help it can get to the next level and shake off Somalia once and for all. No more talk of reintegrating Somaliland in any form (federal state, north region, north south confederacy).

 

[Ximan iyo Xadeed]

Let's go with your logic, Somaliland controls 45% of the Landmass of Sanaag & 60% of the population including Ceerigaabo city. And then what? Did that bring about Somaliland's recognition? Will controlling the entirety of Sool & Sanaag brings about recognition, no. That's my whole point and I'm from Sool. The area might have potential for urbanization and development and even strategic depth in case of invasion from Somalia but is it crucial for Somaliland? No. The critical heartland of Somaliland is from Berbera to Hargeisa to Wajaale. Even Burco in central Somaliland is not strategically important not for the survival of Somaliland or Ethiopia's access to sea. Somaliland waa Galbeed.

So you assumed all of Ceerigaabo district are Isaaq?


You're the same goofy that claimed my coastal land

And you said it yourself you're from Sool, I know more about Sanaag than you.

 

[Ximan iyo Xadeed]

I was being generous with you when it comes to demographics , lets say I didn't include my clans land in Northern Ceerigaabo

 

[Yazi]

Bro I'm not in mood for FKD. You lost. Move on. Don't bring drama previous thread.