Which is more likely : Hiiraan State or SSC State ?

[FAST_LANE]

Horta Banadir State will never happen as it means Southwest losing Barawe , as both Puntland and Jubaland will also shoot it down .

I can see Hassan finally coming thru for his Abtiyaal and create Hiiraan State in the last 6 months of his term just like he did with Galmudug .
As for SSC we have to wait for a darood president

 

[bidenkulaha]

Neither. Banadir State will happen through the backdoor given it’ll have its own finances, security and elected government soon.

It’s not in the interests of other states to have more states given they’d have to share the pie with them

 

[Yazi]

If Banadir & Lower Shabelle merge RX will become a major minority there. As it stands now, they're 50% of Lower Shabelle & 20-25% of Banadir. After the merge, they will be anywhere between 30-35% of this new state. +800k RX will be living in this new state

 

[convincation]

If Banadir & Lower Shabelle merge RX will become a major minority there. As it stands now, they're 50% of Lower Shabelle & 20-25% of Banadir. After the merge, they will be anywhere between 30-35% of this new state. +800k RX will be living in this new state

Vast majority of Rx in Xamar are IDPs who live on the outskirts. They’ll return to Baydhabo once Baay is cleansed. Even if you include their IDPs 25% is ridiculously high for a group who can’t fill a single district alone while Hawiye sub subs live in whole districts exclusively.

Banaadir state is for Hawiye then Digil, Rahanweyn is Mirifle and Mirifle have no stake in LS or Banaadir. Hawiye and Digil share a long history and have been neighbours for centuries, also most Digil clans (Garre, Jiddu, Most Tunni etc) trace to Samaale not Saab.

 

[convincation]

Horta Banadir State will never happen as it means Southwest losing Barawe , as both Puntland and Jubaland will also shoot it down .

I can see Hassan finally coming thru for his Abtiyaal and create Hiiraan State in the last 6 months of his term just like he did with Galmudug .
As for SSC we have to wait for a darood president

Banaadir state is the likeliest to happen from all the ones you listed. Dhulbhante and Xawaadle simply don’t have as much sway in politics as Abgaal does. Banaadir state doesn’t have to include LS, although I’d rather it does + MS

PL has no power to challenge the FGS outside its own borders and JL doesn’t want to make an enemy out of it. Your folks opinion on Banaadir statehood never mattered

 

[Somali Saayid]

SSC. I'm rooting for my Dhulbahante cousins.

Hiiraan State:

Banaadir state:

Spoiler

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[Hilmaam]

 

[Guillotine]

SSC is more tricky, their lands stretch into the 3 gobols. So where would administrative lands start and end?

 

[The Midlands]

There is no such thing as Banaadir State unfortunately Xamar will remain as Somalia capital what will happen is it will have representation based on 4.5 in the apper house and elected Mayor wich will open the door for HG by june 2024. Xamar will say byee to unukaleh

 

[Garaad.XIV]

Hawiye have been requesting a Benadir state for the last ten years. However, due to incompetence among Hawiye presidents, the likelihood of their demands being met appears low.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Vast majority of Rx in Xamar are IDPs who live on the outskirts. They’ll return to Baydhabo once Baay is cleansed. Even if you include their IDPs 25% is ridiculously high for a group who can’t fill a single district alone while Hawiye sub subs live in whole districts exclusively. Banaadir state is for Hawiye then Digil, Rahanweyn is Mirifle and Mirifle have no stake in LS or Banaadir

I will nominate this comment for Cope of the Year in Dec.

 

[Jungle]

Mareeg State & Xiriir Land will be fully recognised before those 2 mentioned in OP lol

 

[convincation]

I will nominate this comment for Cope of the Year in Dec.

No cope. IDPs will return to the towns they came from once those lands are peaceful. Most still have members of their family living in their hometowns

Instead of passing Eelay onto me worry about Bosaaso where they’re everywhere and even politically represented as are Somali Bantus. I heard even the mayor of Qardho is Somali Bantu

 

[Cartan Boos]

Mareeg State & Xiriir Land will be fully recognised before those 2 mentioned in OP lol

SSC was thing before u papper state

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

No cope. IDPs will return to the towns they came from once those lands are peaceful. Most still have members of their family living in their hometowns

Instead of passing Eelay onto me worry about Bosaaso where they’re everywhere and even politically represented as are Somali Bantus. I heard even the mayor of Qardho is Somali Bantu

No Going Back: The New Urban Face of Internal Displacement in Somalia

 

[convincation]

View attachment 280369

View attachment 280374


View attachment 280377No Going Back: The New Urban Face of Internal Displacement in Somalia

https://reliefweb.int/attachments/4f0c2784-1a8e-42e6-adb7-62b239d54776/Somalia%20-%20CCCM%20Cluster%20-IDP%20site%20verification%20exercise%20-%20Bossaso%20-%20%20Nov%202022.pdf

Again, worry about yourself.

 

[Prince of HS]

View attachment 280385

https://reliefweb.int/attachments/4f0c2784-1a8e-42e6-adb7-62b239d54776/Somalia%20-%20CCCM%20Cluster%20-IDP%20site%20verification%20exercise%20-%20Bossaso%20-%20%20Nov%202022.pdf

Again, worry about yourself.

125,000 is a huge population of idp for a city as small as bosaaso. Inshallah they keep coming. We welcome unity and diversity

 

[convincation]

125,000 is a huge population of idp for a city as small as bosaaso.

It’s basically all of them

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

@Prince of HS I saw what you wrote.

https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/5d8332c64.pdf

 

[Prince of HS]

@Prince of HS I saw what you wrote.


View attachment 280390
https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/5d8332c64.pdf

You think they can afford property or even read a polling paper