What's Stopping Puntland Housing Boom?

[DR OSMAN]

I wonder what is stopping PL from having a housing boom? A large part of an economy relies on workers purchasing a home plus vehicles, it's the largest expenditure in GDP calculation yet PL housing boom is only concentrated with a small group of diaspora building holiday homes, how do we get the locals to build their own homes, imagine every 20-30 year old in PL got a job, saved, got a bank loan and built his dream home? that would result in hundreds of thousands of homes each year added into our GDP calculation.

That would be like 50k average house price x 100 thousand youth across Puntland, that's a beautiful net effect of $5 billion dollars added into our economy each year just thru home building or purchases. If we can sustain 100,000 new home owners each year across our 4 million population, that is a guaranteed $5 billion dollars in our GDP each year without 'fail' plus our government taxation revenue will naturally feel the effects of this economic policy.

Is there any home based economic plans in PL you guys can suggest? We need to put our youths thru the 'mortgage' game, this is where the largest part of Australia economy depends on, it depends on young people purchasing homes and the construction industry and banks are two 'infrastructure' needed for this to happen.

 

[DR OSMAN]

In Australia something like 20% of the GDP each year is related to 'property' sector.

The property industry also contributed $202.9 billion to GDP in 2015-16, an increase of $20.4 billion

Why don't we create property sector for locals and ensure our GDP is at least 20% property purchases or new builds, we need to kick-start a race among 'youths' to become home-owners or as they say the 'american dream or australian dream', u make them aspire to reach home ownership as their first priority.

I know we could add 5 billion dollars just by creating an economic policy for 100,000 locals in PL so in each year waxaa laga raba inay guri dhistan.

 

[libaac]

I wonder what is stopping PL from having a housing boom? A large part of an economy relies on workers purchasing a home plus vehicles, it's the largest expenditure in GDP calculation yet PL housing boom is only concentrated with a small group of diaspora building holiday homes, how do we get the locals to build their own homes, imagine every 20-30 year old in PL got a job, saved, got a bank loan and built his dream home? that would result in hundreds of thousands of homes each year added into our GDP calculation.

That would be like 50k average house price x 100 thousand youth across Puntland, that's a beautiful net effect of $5 billion dollars added into our economy each year just thru home building or purchases. If we can sustain 100,000 new home owners each year across our 4 million population, that is a guaranteed $5 billion dollars in our GDP each year without 'fail' plus our government taxation revenue will naturally feel the effects of this economic policy.

Is there any home based economic plans in PL you guys can suggest? We need to put our youths thru the 'mortgage' game, this is where the largest part of Australia economy depends on, it depends on young people purchasing homes and the construction industry and banks are two 'infrastructure' needed for this to happen.

This is unrealistic instead of home building build factories since they’ll have a bigger effect on the country or start tech camps where people can outsource to PL. It’s better to build a proper economy than wishful thinking. How is it possible for that many people to own houses?

 

[DR OSMAN]

This is unrealistic instead of home building build factories since they’ll have a bigger effect on the country or start tech camps where people can outsource to PL. It’s better to build a proper economy than wishful thinking. How is it possible for that many people to own houses?

The population in PL is 4.5 million. 100,000 purchases is quite small fraction when 70% of the population is under 30. That means 3 million people are under 30, are u saying we can't create a policy of home ownership for 100,000 of those 3 million? housing is the biggest sector not factories in economy.

Housing sector has a supply and value chain that stimulates the economy thru electricians-plumbers-carpenters-labourers-project managers-engineers and it also creates 'parts supply' sector such as doors-nails-windows-furnitures.

Just a small govt economic policy to bring a 100,000 new home purchases or builds each year can lead to booms in supply and value chain like you see in Australia.

The puntland govt needs to begin giving out 'free land' to 'youths under 30' as an incentive to build new homes, this will foster the banking arm to prepare the 'loaning requirements' it will lead to then property sector to respond by building the property, it will lead to trickle effect across the value-supply chain I explained.

100,000 new properties in PL each year is reasonable since the under 30 population is 3 million and more. That's only 3% oo qorsho loo samaye, when infact it should be 20-30% which is close to 900k in qorsho loo sameeyo

 

[libaac]

I see what you’re trying to say now. It’s a good initiative but there has to be safety guidelines and also regulations regarding all aspects of housing. Does PL have any other industries? Since it has the least severe terrorist problem it could progress rapidly with the right governance?

 

[DR OSMAN]

I see what you’re trying to say now. It’s a good initiative but there has to be safety guidelines and also regulations regarding all aspects of housing. Does PL have any other industries? Since it has the least severe terrorist problem it could progress rapidly with the right governance?

We need to 'target' the 20-40 year old generation and say 'wa kan dhul bilaash ah' and the government already sets up the water-electricity grid naturally to this new 'neighborhood' called 'xafada dhalinyarada' and all dhalinyaro are expected to build a 'property' there or developers can come in and build apartments or it can be mixed residential area between apartments and houses.

Garowe has a very good mayor and town plan already exists. We should trial the pilot project in Garowe first with 10,000 properties goal and then 30,000 for north galkacyo, 50,000 homes for Bosaso after-wards, 10,000 for Qardho. This would be 100,000 homes program.

This would lead to a response from parts and supply manufacturers or importers who's business will boom and the govt taxation revenue will grow, we need a 'stimulating' economic policy around dhalinyarada and housing allows for trickle across effect onto other supply or value chain sectors such as furniture companies-electrical companies-plumbing-engineers get more jobs-project managers get jobs-window company-door companies-roofing companies, nails companies-bedding and mattress companies.

Just from one housing economic policy will trickle across to so many sectors who generate work and therefore generate employees and taxations for government.

 

[libaac]

We need to 'target' the 20-40 year old generation and say 'wa kan dhul bilaash ah' and the government already sets up the water-electricity grid naturally to this new 'neighborhood' called 'xafada dhalinyarada' and all dhalinyaro are expected to build a 'property' there or developers can come in and build apartments or it can be mixed residential area between apartments and houses.

Garowe has a very good mayor and town plan already exists. We should trial the pilot project in Garowe first with 10,000 properties goal and then 30,000 for north galkacyo, 50,000 homes for Bosaso after-wards, 10,000 for Qardho. This would be 100,000 homes program.

This would lead to a response from parts and supply manufacturers or importers who's business will boom and the govt taxation revenue will grow, we need a 'stimulating' economic policy around dhalinyarada and housing allows for trickle across effect onto other supply or value chain sectors such as furniture companies-electrical companies-plumbing-engineers get more jobs-project managers get jobs-window company-door companies-roofing companies, nails companies-bedding and mattress companies.

Just from one housing economic policy will trickle across to so many sectors who generate work and therefore generate employees and taxations for government.

Mashallah this is a good start but it should be closely monitored. As long as PL sets out guidelines it should be good. Also I have a questions how many kids in PL attend school and how many are employed ?

 

[قوة الشرطة الصومالية]

Corruption is the major culprit. I blame my Maxamud saleeban folk. Every one of the leaders after A.Y stole state funds. I will take them to court in their pension years. Walahi they will pay back every single cent they took from the states funds.

 

[Hali]

Corruption is the major culprit. I blame my Maxamud saleeban folk. Every one of the leaders after A.Y stole state funds. I will take them to court in their pension years. Walahi they will pay back every single cent they took from the states funds.

Unfortunately no dislike button

 

[Hali]

Maybe cheap rent and the fact people are constantly moving.

 

[codewebsduh]

If by Puntland you mean Bari + Mudug which have a max population of 2 million it's inherently due to the lower population.

Contrast this with Xamar with ~3 million people and a significant diaspora presence. Housing boom is a function of population.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I have a good idea of housing growth in Galkacyo and I think it must be a fairly good rate because the land the government sold for Garacad port, Xerada Siinay and Xerada Kabida, is being built on fairly quickly. Xerada Siinay is already about 40% built up. Siinay and Kabida combined are about 3 sq km, so Galkacyo is about add 3 sq km to its land area in under 5 years. That is fast for any Somali city.

I don't know about the rest of Puntland.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

If by Puntland you mean Bari + Mudug which have a max population of 2 million it's inherently due to the lower population.

Contrast this with Xamar with ~3 million people and a significant diaspora presence. Housing boom is a function of population.

MJ is second only to Ogaden. Hawiye, Isaaq and D&M are all laangaab when compared to MJ.

 

[SirLancelLord]

If by Puntland you mean Bari + Mudug which have a max population of 2 million it's inherently due to the lower population.

Contrast this with Xamar with ~3 million people and a significant diaspora presence. Housing boom is a function of population.

Yes exactly, population and diaspora interaction. Marketing Lesson #1 the people are the best sellers

you need an active diaspora, Hargeisa was ground zero between 91 - 97

to make Garowe attractive and not just for sentimental reasons - you gotta ask, if I wasn't from there why would I go

 

[libaac]

Yes exactly, population and diaspora interaction. Marketing Lesson #1 the people are the best sellers

you need an active diaspora, Hargeisa was ground zero between 91 - 97

to make Garowe attractive and not just for sentimental reasons - you gotta ask, if I wasn't from there why would I go

This is what I’ve been saying laakin it seems non MJs aren’t welcome therefore it would be hard to get this initiative of the ground. People need to understand that giving the youth some land won’t guarantee the development and revenue they’re expecting. If you look at xamar even though there is shit security it’s having a property boom. The reason for this is people that aren’t from xamar also invest and buy property. This coupled with their diaspora and large population is what has caused the rapid selling of homes

 

[codewebsduh]

This is what I’ve been saying laakin it seems non MJs aren’t welcome therefore it would be hard to get this initiative of the ground. People need to understand that giving the youth some land won’t guarantee the development and revenue they’re expecting. If you look at xamar even though there is shit security it’s having a property boom. The reason for this is people that aren’t from xamar also invest and buy property. This coupled with their diaspora and large population is what has caused the rapid selling of homes

There is a quasi boom in Bosaso/Galkacyo but generally the best housing sectors are Hargeisa, JigJiga and Mogadishu. Alot of reer waqooyi sneak into jigjiga and live there life there.

 

[DR OSMAN]

If by Puntland you mean Bari + Mudug which have a max population of 2 million it's inherently due to the lower population.

Contrast this with Xamar with ~3 million people and a significant diaspora presence. Housing boom is a function of population.

Garissa is 45000 SQ KM and is 1 million censused by Kenya. We can extrapolate PL is 150,000 SQ KM, it is 3.3 times larger by land mass, so it's 1 million(garissa population) x 3.3 = 3.3 million for Puntland. Plus mind you this is 95% majerten population, where-as mogadishu is at best 60% hawiye with the rest of cad-cads-Madow-somalis accounting for the rest.

Mogadishu isn't 3 million either, it's 1.5 million maximum after u measure '1 km x 1 km' and assume a density rate of 5 per household and the city area sq is 90 sq km.

Look at this way if Mogadishu is 3 million, that would mean in each area sq kilometer the density rate is 33000. 3 million/90 is 33000 per area sq. How is it 1000 meter by 1000 meter inay ku nool yihin 33000, that would indicate their is 33000/5 per household, that means u will find 6600 properties in 1 area sq to have population of 3 million.

Me and @Thegoodshepherd talked about this topic and concluded hamar is 1.5 million max with 200-300k for south west IDPS. For 1.5 million population that indicates a housing rate of 1.5 million/90 area sq = 16000 people. This means 1 area sq/16000 ppl will give u housing ratio of 3200 houses in 1 area sq which is more likely then 6600 houses in 1 area sq.

Maybe me and @Thegoodshepherd can carry on this discussion, cause it's obvious you lack basic mathamatics. U trying to fit in 6600 houses of 20 by 20 meter per house in 1 area sq km, which is impossible. Infact maybe the-goodshephard if u have the time can u go into google earth and measure an 'average' property dimension, it's around 20 by 20 meters per house plot.

maybe good-shepherd go into google earth and measure 1 area sq km in mogadishu and count how many houses exist, that will give us data on how to multiply that across 90 area sq and how many houses exist and we can give a density ratio of 5 per household. Max being 8, minimum being 3, average being 5 is fair estimate.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Waryaa @Thegoodshepherd this is 1 area sq kilometer in mogadishu

Is there 33000 people with 6600 houses in this area sq kilometer.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Waryaa @Thegoodshepherd this is 1 area sq kilometer in mogadishu

Is there 33000 people with 6600 houses in this area sq kilometer.

No there are not 33,000 people in that sq km of Mogadishu because it is not built upward. You can only achieve densities of that level if you have 4 floor apartment buildings like in central Paris.

Only by having this kind of apartment building can you have densities above 25,000 per sq km. It is, however, possible that IDPs in Mogadishu have densities above 33,000 without apartment buildings since they don't have enough land and live on top of each other.

 

[0117]

Garissa is 45000 SQ KM and is 1 million censused by Kenya. We can extrapolate PL is 150,000 SQ KM, it is 3.3 times larger by land mass, so it's 1 million(garissa population) x 3.3 = 3.3 million for Puntland. Plus mind you this is 95% majerten population, where-as mogadishu is at best 60% hawiye with the rest of cad-cads-Madow-somalis accounting for the rest.

Mogadishu isn't 3 million either, it's 1.5 million maximum after u measure '1 km x 1 km' and assume a density rate of 5 per household and the city area sq is 90 sq km.

Look at this way if Mogadishu is 3 million, that would mean in each area sq kilometer the density rate is 33000. 3 million/90 is 33000 per area sq. How is it 1000 meter by 1000 meter inay ku nool yihin 33000, that would indicate their is 33000/5 per household, that means u will find 6600 properties in 1 area sq to have population of 3 million.

Me and @Thegoodshepherd talked about this topic and concluded hamar is 1.5 million max with 200-300k for south west IDPS. For 1.5 million population that indicates a housing rate of 1.5 million/90 area sq = 16000 people. This means 1 area sq/16000 ppl will give u housing ratio of 3200 houses in 1 area sq which is more likely then 6600 houses in 1 area sq.

Maybe me and @Thegoodshepherd can carry on this discussion, cause it's obvious you lack basic mathamatics. U trying to fit in 6600 houses of 20 by 20 meter per house in 1 area sq km, which is impossible. Infact maybe the-goodshephard if u have the time can u go into google earth and measure an 'average' property dimension, it's around 20 by 20 meters per house plot.

maybe good-shepherd go into google earth and measure 1 area sq km in mogadishu and count how many houses exist, that will give us data on how to multiply that across 90 area sq and how many houses exist and we can give a density ratio of 5 per household. Max being 8, minimum being 3, average being 5 is fair estimate.

Why are you using Garissa to extrapolate the population of Puntland and not historical census or voting registration carried out there