What would Somalia be like if we had won the Ogaden war?

[Based]

I was just wondering what we would be like if we won that war considering it was the start of our demise and why Somalia is still struggling from a civil war that stemmed from our failure in galbeed. Was anarchy and destruction our destiny even if we had won?

 

[Aurelian]

I was just wondering what we would be like if we won that war considering it was the start of our demise and why Somalia is still struggling from a civil war that stemmed from our failure in galbeed. Was anarchy and destruction our destiny even if we had won?

We would have won if we had peace with them sponsored by USSR, meaning Somali galbeed either giving to Somali or stayed under ethiopian and Somali control, rebels would not have being funded by Ethiopia, economically kinda stable with the USSR support which would have the effect of containing the public anger. Bare would boosted his reputation if Somalia took Ogadeen back with dire dabe and harar.

 

[Giftxo]

We would have the same stability as Ethiopia today. Ethiopia would have became us

 

[Macalin dheerow]

Some sort of civil war would definitely happen, somalis where tribalistic back then. The difference would be the severity. The casualties would be smaller. Barre would have been overthrown by large coalition of multiple clans. The aftermath would also be more peaceful, heres why


Barre would still be strong as he was not riddled by the financial problems caused by the war. He would still be tribalistic and some day clans would be opposed to him. No dictator last. The clans would need to work together due to Barres strenght. A lot of problems would be avoided by doing this. They would need to agree to power sharign before overthrowing him. There is no guarantee that the agreement would hold but it would stop a lot of problems from happening.

 

[Som]

Somalia would be more stable, probably no civil war and no chaos.
On the other hand nobody on the international community would recognize Somalia's annexation of Ogadenia, the region would still be considered part of ethiopia by many countries even if under de facto somali control.
In this scenario After some years ethiopia and somalia would have solved the situation with a treaty

 

[Ahmedahmed5000]

I was just wondering what we would be like if we won that war considering it was the start of our demise and why Somalia is still struggling from a civil war that stemmed from our failure in galbeed. Was anarchy and destruction our destiny even if we had won?

IMO going to war in 1977 just might be the biggest blunder, one way or another Ethiopia is going to diverge into different states. Oromos and amaharas have a bigger say than ethnic Somalis. They’re expanding and building churches in Ogaden. The best strategy would’ve been to fund insurgents like the oromos and Ogadens and Tiffany’s to wane the Ethiopian state to the breaking point. Eritrea got independence it wouldn’t have impossible to get Ogaden.