Be honest with yourself. Many of my majeerteen adeero and even siblings are hoping alshabaab will be gone soon and that will be their "mark" to go back. But do you honestly think their defeat is near?
Here's why I think alshabaab is here to stay:
1: They extort so much tax from all the major cities and regions as well as where they control that they've managed to run a budget-surplus for the last couple of years.
2:. They're clever and know which battles to fight. See, if they just blow up all businesses, then they unite all the moneyed elite against them. But if they offer a means to co-exist, i.e. pay up, then even government members aren't so keen on alshabaab, making it even a non-issue for some of them--no matter how much of a minority. This also applies to which battles they fight in the field. They're known to abandon a village/location and avoid a costly battle. They always recognize their strength: asymmetrical warfare, gorilla, and they never get out of their comfort zone. This also means they've denied so many new soldiers battle experience. Essentially, they are far smarter than the government and don't do things unless they're necessary--necessary referring to filling their pockets.
3: Speaking about being smarter than the government, alshabaab isn't internally corrupt nor dysfunctional. Government can't even agree on what steps to take. That's fine when you're one of those EU countries where most-everyone is well-off and they've plenty of resources. But when your government is ours, even the states, you don't have the luxury of such obscene internal dysfunction. This is another way the government is worse. Basically, forget about them coming together to fight. They'll say so in public and do a 180 in private, handing tens of thousands to alshabaab extortionists.
4: Then there's the reality of how soldiers work in somalia. They come in layers. Sub-clan malitias, clan malitias, tribal malitias and finally, official state and national army. Let's leave out thugs for now. This means we do in fact have enough soldiers in somalia to defeat alshabaab ten times over, but they're so fractured and loyal to their sub-clan or clan, even tribe, to fight alshabaab. They're much more interested in carving out a local area for themselves or securing their clan, etc... Alshabaab, as far they're concerned, is only a problem when they come to my region. And even then, alshabaab is clever enough to offer them a means to co-exist, leads to even less resistance.
5: That leaves two options to defeat them. The better hope right now depends on the new soldiers trained in Eritrea. But remember, those guys aren't battle hardened. More so, alshabaab will be sure to deny them experience with their asymmetrical warfare. The other option is the US, but that assumes the US isn't benefiting from Alshabaab and is interested in genuinely helping us rid of this pesky group. Remember, the US is only there for its own interests, which is to ensure neocolonialism and neo-liberal economic structures are put in place--structures that will favor it's Multinationals and giant corporations. The US is here to make us like Kenya or Ethiopia: just another foreign owned sub-saharan African nation. It leads me to conclude that the US, while easily capable of flooring alshabaab, chooses to wait until things are in-place for its multinationals. Most are quick to forget this, but a coalition of Ethiopia and the US easily crushed the Islamic courts union back in 2006, an organization far more powerful than alshabaab, of which alshabaab was a member. Prominent member, yes, but a member nonetheless. The main way the US hopes to accomplish this (selling our country to it's Multinationals) is to continue to strap the central government with more debt thru the IMF as well as the World Bank--and when the piss-poor somali nation can't pay, they ask for concessions--those concessions come in the form of laws that favor them. It's a classic strategy of the US, straight from the cold war.
Given all that, do you honestly believe that alshabaab will be gone in this term or even the next? I suspect they'll be here for another two decades--thats five four year terms.
Here's why I think alshabaab is here to stay:
1: They extort so much tax from all the major cities and regions as well as where they control that they've managed to run a budget-surplus for the last couple of years.
2:. They're clever and know which battles to fight. See, if they just blow up all businesses, then they unite all the moneyed elite against them. But if they offer a means to co-exist, i.e. pay up, then even government members aren't so keen on alshabaab, making it even a non-issue for some of them--no matter how much of a minority. This also applies to which battles they fight in the field. They're known to abandon a village/location and avoid a costly battle. They always recognize their strength: asymmetrical warfare, gorilla, and they never get out of their comfort zone. This also means they've denied so many new soldiers battle experience. Essentially, they are far smarter than the government and don't do things unless they're necessary--necessary referring to filling their pockets.
3: Speaking about being smarter than the government, alshabaab isn't internally corrupt nor dysfunctional. Government can't even agree on what steps to take. That's fine when you're one of those EU countries where most-everyone is well-off and they've plenty of resources. But when your government is ours, even the states, you don't have the luxury of such obscene internal dysfunction. This is another way the government is worse. Basically, forget about them coming together to fight. They'll say so in public and do a 180 in private, handing tens of thousands to alshabaab extortionists.
4: Then there's the reality of how soldiers work in somalia. They come in layers. Sub-clan malitias, clan malitias, tribal malitias and finally, official state and national army. Let's leave out thugs for now. This means we do in fact have enough soldiers in somalia to defeat alshabaab ten times over, but they're so fractured and loyal to their sub-clan or clan, even tribe, to fight alshabaab. They're much more interested in carving out a local area for themselves or securing their clan, etc... Alshabaab, as far they're concerned, is only a problem when they come to my region. And even then, alshabaab is clever enough to offer them a means to co-exist, leads to even less resistance.
5: That leaves two options to defeat them. The better hope right now depends on the new soldiers trained in Eritrea. But remember, those guys aren't battle hardened. More so, alshabaab will be sure to deny them experience with their asymmetrical warfare. The other option is the US, but that assumes the US isn't benefiting from Alshabaab and is interested in genuinely helping us rid of this pesky group. Remember, the US is only there for its own interests, which is to ensure neocolonialism and neo-liberal economic structures are put in place--structures that will favor it's Multinationals and giant corporations. The US is here to make us like Kenya or Ethiopia: just another foreign owned sub-saharan African nation. It leads me to conclude that the US, while easily capable of flooring alshabaab, chooses to wait until things are in-place for its multinationals. Most are quick to forget this, but a coalition of Ethiopia and the US easily crushed the Islamic courts union back in 2006, an organization far more powerful than alshabaab, of which alshabaab was a member. Prominent member, yes, but a member nonetheless. The main way the US hopes to accomplish this (selling our country to it's Multinationals) is to continue to strap the central government with more debt thru the IMF as well as the World Bank--and when the piss-poor somali nation can't pay, they ask for concessions--those concessions come in the form of laws that favor them. It's a classic strategy of the US, straight from the cold war.
Given all that, do you honestly believe that alshabaab will be gone in this term or even the next? I suspect they'll be here for another two decades--thats five four year terms.
