What if Ahmed Gurey won at Wayna Daga (Alternate history)

[Lightshow]

 

[Three Moons]

You don't understand. We aren't talking ill of him but it's fact a few of his mistakes led to the Imam not being able to fully establish the empire and all of its conquered territories and so after Ahmad Gurey's death Adal retreated and fell To Oromo hordes.

If the Ottomans could recover from the brutal humiliation of Bayezid I at the hands of Timur and emerged from their Interregnum as an expanding empire facing much greater odds than Adal, then there is no reason why Imam Ahmed should be blamed for his successors not consolidating his empire and for not dealing a death blow to a critically wounded Abyssinia. Nur Ibn Mujahid even beheaded their emperor Galawdewos and vanquished the rest of the Portuguese, yet he did not take the Oromo threat serious enough. Imam Ahmed on the other hand sent scouts and armies to every part of the Horn and beyond, there were no surprises for him, he even saw the Portuguese coming when he confronted them at Massawa.

 

[awsaleban667]

Ahmed Gurey on his last campaign before retiring (1564) @Khaemwaset

 

[awsaleban667]

If the Ottomans could recover from the brutal humiliation of Bayezid I at the hands of Timur and emerged from their Interregnum as a expanding empire, then there is no reason why Imam Ahmed should be blamed for his successors not consolidating his empire and for not dealing a death blow to critically wounded Abyssinia. Nur Ibn Mujahid even beheaded their emperor Galawdewos and vanquished the rest of the Portuguese, yet he did not take the Oromo threat serious enough. Imam Ahmed on the other hand sent scouts and armies to every part of the Horn and beyond, there were no surprises for him, he even saw the Portuguese coming when he confronted them at Massawa.

Yeah Nur didn’t take the Oromos seriously but his biggest L was allowing Uthman Al Habeshi to take the throne after he died.

 

[Bazed]

Thinking about what could've been. Perhaps he would've united us and gone down the path of rapid industrialization. The way Japan was consolidated under 1 royal family, Gurey could've established a dynasty.

Can you imagine? Man I both love and hate what could've been.

Back to EU4 I guess.

 

[HabarSteven12]

Ahmed cut off christavao head in the heat of the moment when christavao insulted the prophet. Also Ahmed definitely could’ve won during Wayna Daga even after the Turks left his army only disintegrated after he died

I agree It was definitely in the heat of the moment. But Imam Ahmed also underestimated the joint power of the Ethiopian and Portuguese forces. The Ottomans were well experienced in dealing with the Portuguese. With Ottoman support, Imam Ahmed won a decisive victory at the battle of Wofla. Prior to Portuguese support for Abyssinia, Imam Ahmad came close to extinguishing the ancient kingdom. Abyssinia had to cry for help from the Portuguese, who had far superior weapons than the Adalite forces.

Imam Ahmed should have at least negotiated with the Ottomans. When Imam Ahmed won the battle of Wofla and the Portuguese forces scattered, he thought it was the end for Abyssinia. He told the Ottomans that he no longer needed their support and sent the elite contingent back to Yemen. But it was a trap all along. Imam Ahmed wasn't thinking strategically. If he had negotiated with the Ottomans, he could have controlled all of Abyssinia.

 

[HabarSteven12]

Imam ahmad really should've put his pride aside and given the head of cristavo da gama to the Ottomans as requested instead of ending up in a diplomatic spat with them leading to just him vs the still powerful Portuguese and destroyed ethiopian army.

Imam Ahmed wasn't thinking strategically and unnecessaryly put himself in a spat with the Ottomans, who helped him win a decisive victory at the battle of Wofla a few months prior to the battle of Wayna Daga. The Ottomans were well-versed and experienced in dealing with the Portuguese, who had far superior weapons than the Adalite forces.

Just imagine the outcome if Imam Ahmed had negotiated with the Ottomans. All of Abyssinia would have come under the Adal Empire, and the Portuguese would have been kicked out of the strategic trade routes in the Red Sea. It would have been a win-win situation for both the Ottomans and the Adalite forces. But the Imam was a little prideful and wasn't thinking strategically long-term.

 

[Three Moons]

Ahmed cut off christavao head in the heat of the moment when christavao insulted the prophet. Also Ahmed definitely could’ve won during Wayna Daga even after the Turks left his army only disintegrated after he died

If Imam Ahmed had kept Da Gama alive, and locked in a Adalite fort or town it would have demoralised the Portuguese, and they would have lost the will to fight in Wayna Daga, the Byzantinesque death blow to Abyssinia would have been completed, and unlike the Battle of Fatagar, this would have been years before the Oromos were a threat, and Adal therefore would have had all the time in the world to rebuild and consolidate its gains.

I always felt that handing Cristavao over to the Ottomans was the smart play, but it would also potentially signal that Imam Ahmed was subordinate to them instead of independent, and through Ottoman-Portuguese negotiations there is a chance that Cristavao could eventually be released to his brother, the governor of India, and this would definitely eventually come back to bite the Adalites down the line.

One way or another Cristavao would raise a larger army and return to the Horn, so he had to go. Imam Ahmed however should have kept his death a secret until the end of the war, or kept him prisoner in Harar or Abasa for the rest of his life, the way the Portuguese imprisoned Mir Ali Bey in Lisbon for the rest of his life.

The brutal death of the Portuguese commander, his close relationship with his men combined with the centuries of anti-Muslim hatred built up in the medieval Portuguese psyche, now having to face the reality that Cristavao was beheaded by ‘a Moor’ was simply too much to swallow, and they became suicidal, putting all of their efforts to kill the Imam on the battlefield.

He could have never foreseen this, nobody could.

 

[X29]

Ahmed Gurey on his last campaign before retiring (1564) @Khaemwaset
View attachment 315180

What is the economy today

 

[Vacelere]

I believe it would end in the same way because even if imam Ahmed won the battle he would face a four obstacles on his way of total domination of east Africa.

1 the tribes he rule
2 the conquered people
3 the remnants of the Ethiopian forces
4 the oromo invasion

So I believe hard to imagine the adalites who were already tired and stritched thin will be able to overcome this and another point is imam Ahmed and his cousin nur to a lower extent the only rulers of the walashma dynasty who were serious about Ethiopia threat

 

[Garsoore]

I believe it would end in the same way because even if imam Ahmed won the battle he would face a four obstacles on his way of total domination of east Africa.

1 the tribes he rule
2 the conquered people
3 the remnants of the Ethiopian forces
4 the oromo invasion

So I believe hard to imagine the adalites who were already tired and stritched thin will be able to overcome this and another point is imam Ahmed and his cousin nur to a lower extent the only rulers of the walashma dynasty who were serious about Ethiopia threat

They'd have been most happy to be under our rule. There's already an account of them being so. The Abyssinian army used to plunder their own lands while on their to war

 

[Inquisitive_]

Imam Ahmed underestimated the strength and power of the Portuguese army in Ethiopia. The Ottomans had a lot of experience dealing with the Portuguese military and won many decisive battles against them. If Imam Ahmed handed over the body of Cristavo da Gama to the Ottomans, the Turks could have pressured Cristavo da Gama to tell them vital intelligence information about Portuguese military secrets in Ethiopia and the Red Sea. This would have been a victory for both the Ottomans and Imam Ahmed. But qadr allah wa masha fa'al.

The majority of the elite contingent that was sent to bolster Imam Ahmed's forces in the battle of Wofla deserted to Yemen. The majority of the elite contingent departed for Yemen when Imam Ahmed refused to hand over the body of Cristavo da Gama. Only 200 Turks remained behind. If the elite Turkish contingent remained at the battle of Wayna Daga, Imam Ahmad would have definitely won. All of Abyssinia would have been under the Adal Empire.

Typical Somali stubbornness and arrogance which has always been our downfall it also cost us the 77 war, two global superpowers at that time telling us not to invade Ethiopia but we go ahead and do it while breaking ties with our main ally.

That stupid colossal stubbornness & arrogance by Barre caused the destruction of Somalia and the ongoing 4 decade abject humiliation.

But it looks like Barre was preceded by the Adal Sultanate refusing to handover useless najas infidel body to the Ottomans while at the same time through typical sheer arrogance underestimate his opponents which lead to the downfall of the Adal sultanate.

Don't blame our Lord for this, its our own doing, this is who we are as a people, steeped in stubbornness and arrogance, never ones to learn from history.