Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
Probably nothing. Cagjar is loyal part of the 'Prosperity' party of Abiy. Also he is a traitor to the people of Somalia Galbeed so expect nothing good. 99% to Addis, 1% to Galbeed most likely!
What do you guys think about Ethiopia exporting oil from the Somali region in two months?
- Thread starter EainA2
- Start date
Probably nothing. Cagjar is loyal part of the 'Prosperity' party of Abiy. Also he is a traitor to the people of Somalia Galbeed so expect nothing good. 99% to Addis, 1% to Galbeed most likely!
Idilinaa
VIP
Read this article a while ago, didn’t think they’d roll out plans this soon
This is probably why we haven’t heard much about it until now:
The ONLF will likely retaliate if extraction is attempted. Just like they did back in 2007:
Cagjar’s response:
He also dismissed the ONLF’s accusations about state interference and internal divisions:
It looks like things might be scaling back toward open conflict between the government and an insurgency once again , thanks to Abiy Ahmed’s overreaching ambitions:
When you really think about it, it’s remarkable how Somalis have managed to resist and block oil and gas extraction in the Ogaden since the early 1900s.
News: ONLF condemns Somali region officials' meeting with Poly-GCL as ‘resource plunder’, warns the later of ‘repercussions’
This is probably why we haven’t heard much about it until now:
The ONLF will likely retaliate if extraction is attempted. Just like they did back in 2007:
Cagjar’s response:
He also dismissed the ONLF’s accusations about state interference and internal divisions:
It looks like things might be scaling back toward open conflict between the government and an insurgency once again , thanks to Abiy Ahmed’s overreaching ambitions:
When you really think about it, it’s remarkable how Somalis have managed to resist and block oil and gas extraction in the Ogaden since the early 1900s.
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
So it was all bad when he was not in power, but when he get's in it's all good?? Lol.
Lets not also forget Cagjar's human rights record!
Idilinaa
VIP
Federal government in Ethiopia actually allocated 10% of the federal subsidies from domestic sources(from tax etc) to Somali region in 2022/2023 (2015 Ethiopian Calendar).
20 billion Ethiopian Birr is approximately 363.64 million USD.
But they under counted the Somali population by using the stats from 2017(5 million), when the census by the local government puts now at 25 million. So maybe we they will get the 2nd highest share if they count for that now as our population.
As Somali's share was about half of Amhara’s and less than one-third of Oromia’s,
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ZBR
سبحان اللهِ وبحمدِه Free Palestine
It’s a gas project south Somalia deserves that cheap energy the most and the most capable of captalizing from it due to their large population
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
Giving money to Cagjar is the same as giving money to Addis. This is simply Abiy paying his most loyal solider!
The Oromo are in revolt, the Amhara are in revolt, the Tigrayans were in revolt, and the South West can't read so they dont really care ngl...
Being able to make the periphery of Ethiopia more stable then the Ethiopian core is ofc something he will reward. Also Cagjar embezzles alot of stuff, he once diverted cash from a water project in Jigjiga to himself lmfao. Rest of this probably went to Liyu police if i'm being honest
Idilinaa
VIP
He is not wrong things have improved, Somalis have more freedom & autonomy and are governing their own region semi-autonomously similar to Puntland and Somaliland.
They pretty much de-militarized it , so people on this thread are wrong, they are not under direct occupation like they was before.
Cagjar is a loyalist/stooge to Abyi Ahmed no doubt, because they haven't honoured the full agreement that was promised to ONLF only partially.
I believe ONLF should come back to table with them again and negotiate stronger reform rather than igniting a new conflict. Cagjar needs to be transperant about the resource explorations.
Idilinaa
VIP
The money they have raised domestically through taxes in the Somali region have so far directly went into public services and development.
The revolt in Amhara, Tigray and Oromo is has to with them fighting over power and to dominate. They want to rule over others. Somalis are not fighting eachother over power , they are cooperating peacefully.
Somalis will only fight or resist if there is forcefull occupation or exploitation and denial of freedoms.
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
Things have improved but it is not because of Abiy's Prosperity party, it is not because of 'reform', but because of a peace agreement with the ONLF and the threat of resuming hostilities- that's it!
Also a major reason why the hammer has not came down on us Somalis yet is because Abiy is fighting the OLF and Fano right now. Ofc he will placate us for now.
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
This is true, however whenever Abiy is not fighting in Habasha he stirs random shit in Galbeed. The instigation of the Somali-Afar clashes is a great example. Honestly kudos to the Amhara and Oromo for distracting him for so long.
Also he can't do anything drastic in Galbeed because he has lots to gain from us (Liyu Police, Oil prospects) and he will lose it if he goes too hard on us.
Idilinaa
VIP
I believe it's a fundamentally different political situation for the Somali region. Unlike others, it isn't openly trying to secede right now, and it's not seen as a direct threat to Abiy Ahmed's grip on power unlike the Amhara, Tigray, or Oromo, who all seek some form of dominance over Addis. They all firmly identify as part of the Ethiopian project. The Somali region, on the other hand, does not.
That said, I also think granting the Somali region more autonomy has only reinforced its distinct trajectory. It continues to operate separately from the rest of Ethiopia and is economically more integrated with other Somali regions, especially as it seeks to expand trade corridors across the broader Somali territories.
The only true breaking point, in my view, will come with the question of natural resources in Ogaden and Abiy Ahmed’s ambition for sea access.
Espaa_
Ku sali nabiga {scw}
I didnt know okay
idk shi about galbeed and i assumed everything was good there 
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
Very insightful
Can you post the census? This would mean that it’s about the same as somalias population if not more. Somalias population is estimated at 18-25 million.
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
Idilinaa
VIP
I didnt know okay
Cagjar’s administration has made clear efforts to build cross-border Somali trade, which positions the region more like a hub for Somali economic connectivity than an Ethiopian periphery.
Mustafa Cagjar urges Somali diaspora to invest in Ethiopia’s Somali State
NAIROBI, Kenya (HOL) — Ethiopia’s Somali State President, Mustafa Mohammed Omar 'Cagjar', has urged Somalis living abroad to return home and help rebuild the region, calling on professionals and entrepreneurs in Kenya to invest in local development as the state embraces newfound autonomy and peace.
They are also continuing to build out a trade corridor linking Somali regional cities
Panel Discussion on Berbera Economic Corridor underway in Jigjiga City
That's why i say that ONLF should come to the table and talk things out with Cagjar and through him negotiate a better deal with Abyi ahmed and better transperancy when it comes how the oil/gas resources will be handled.
Idilinaa
VIP
Cagjar’s administration has made clear efforts to build cross-border Somali trade, which positions the region more like a hub for Somali economic connectivity than an Ethiopian periphery.
Mustafa Cagjar urges Somali diaspora to invest in Ethiopia’s Somali State
NAIROBI, Kenya (HOL) — Ethiopia’s Somali State President, Mustafa Mohammed Omar 'Cagjar', has urged Somalis living abroad to return home and help rebuild the region, calling on professionals and entrepreneurs in Kenya to invest in local development as the state embraces newfound autonomy and peace.www.hiiraan.com
They are also continuing to build out a trade corridor linking Somali regional cities
Panel Discussion on Berbera Economic Corridor underway in Jigjiga City
That's why i say that ONLF should come to the table and talk things out with Cagjar and through him negotiate a better deal with Abyi ahmed and better transparency when it comes how the oil/gas resources will be handled.
Also another thing i have to point out the Somali regional government often acts with semi-autonomous behavior in how it manages land, trade, urban planning, and sometimes security.
Its policies are increasingly driven by local needs and Somali public opinion, not just federal directives.
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
Cagjar’s administration has made clear efforts to build cross-border Somali trade, which positions the region more like a hub for Somali economic connectivity than an Ethiopian periphery.
Mustafa Cagjar urges Somali diaspora to invest in Ethiopia’s Somali State
NAIROBI, Kenya (HOL) — Ethiopia’s Somali State President, Mustafa Mohammed Omar 'Cagjar', has urged Somalis living abroad to return home and help rebuild the region, calling on professionals and entrepreneurs in Kenya to invest in local development as the state embraces newfound autonomy and peace.
They are also continuing to build out a trade corridor linking Somali regional cities
Panel Discussion on Berbera Economic Corridor underway in Jigjiga City
That's why i say that ONLF should come to the table and talk things out with Cagjar and through him negotiate a better deal with Abyi ahmed and better transperancy when it comes how the oil/gas resources will be handled.
Ofc Cagjar want's economic development, everybody does! Richer ppl means more taxes for you to take, and Galbeed is not in a resource trap yet so they actually need to provide something to the people. Also what I mean by not acting in Somali interests is that he lowk lets Amhara and Oromo migrants flock to Galbeed and does nothing to them- they are treated like royalty while we are treated like trash when we migrate to their regions.
Also his Liyu police straight up kill, rpe, and steal from people. He heads a gang and does nothing to reign them in besides virtue signaling whenever something bad happens.
edit: Woah you are telling me Kenya praised the occupier-in-chief for successfully integrating and developing a formerly rebellious territory?
Idilinaa
VIP
There is no massive influx as far as i know. Amhara and Oromo only make up like 1-2% of the population in the Somali region. Almost all government positions are occupied by Somalis and the private sector is lead and run by local Somalis.
Somalis pay taxes and get free education, health care, and development. That's why the tax compliance has increased.
Liyu police doesn't exist anymore after they outsted TPLF thug Abdi Iley in 2018 they disbanded it, there is no killings, rape or theft in the Somali region.
It's the most peaceful region in all of Ethiopia for more than 6 years now.
Five years on: a region of stability in Ethiopia | Conciliation Resources
Five years ago, on 21 October 2018, the Government of Ethiopia and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) signed the Asmara Peace Deal - an historic occasion marking the end of over 30 years of armed conflict in the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia (SRS). But a peace deal isn’t an...
Before 2018 it was ruled by the TPLF military government, since after it's been by ruled by local civilian government. So it's no longer the same.
Read this it take you down the political development timeline:
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, OG.
There is no influx as far as i know. Amhara and Oromo only make up like 1-2% of the population in the Somali region. Almost all government positions are occupied by Somalis and the private sector is lead and run by local Somalis
Somalis pay taxes and get free education, health care, and development. That's why they tax compliance has increased.
Liyu police doesn't exist anymore after they outsted TPLF thug Abdi Iley in 2018 they disbanded it, there is no killings, rape or theft in the Somali region.
It's the most peaceful region in all of Ethiopia for more than 6 years now.
Five years on: a region of stability in Ethiopia | Conciliation Resources
Five years ago, on 21 October 2018, the Government of Ethiopia and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) signed the Asmara Peace Deal - an historic occasion marking the end of over 30 years of armed conflict in the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia (SRS). But a peace deal isn’t an...www.c-r.org
Before 2018 it was ruled by the TPLF military government, since after it's been by ruled by local civilian government.
Read this it take you down the political development timeline:
1) Yes there is. In 2007 Jigjiga was 17% non Somali, there has not been data on ethnic breakdown in recent times, but it could easily be 30% right now.
2) Liyu Police does still exist wdym? They never disbanded and still exist, here is a mention in the Ethiopian paper 'Addis Standard' https://addisstandard.com/news-ethi...-shabaab-says-hundreds-killed-weapons-seized/
3) There are killings today, infact Cagjar's men abused a Somali boy for 40 days before he died (he was 16) https://wardheernews.com/the-somali...kest-era-since-the-fall-of-the-former-regime/
4) I don't doubt it being the safest region, but the others being either in civil war or being utter backwaters makes it a easy race to win.
5) I know the TPLF is not in power, I have not slept for half a decade
