What are the 3 possible scenarios that await SL and SSC?

[The Midlands]

There are three scenarios one is pushed by Djibouti which is keeping Somaliland as one entity and hosting the final negotiations with Mogadishu which may lead to her changing it's separatist position and getting ready "for a North-South powersharing" and self-governing but when? Once she is no longer in Control of SSC but still threatening with militarily action.

The other scenario is that Mogadishu government does not want a new Dblock state " enough for them to have a headache is dealing with Puntland and Jubaland" but it is possible to put Sool region under the Ministry of the Interior until unity with SL for electoral purposes. The government does not intend to do direct elections aka one-man one-vote elections but it wants a better model than the previous model like the number of voters/delegates would be more and could reach 1k for each seat and the voting stations would be in more cities so it would try to get the Dhulbahante votes In Laascaanood instead of Garowe and Boosaso, Same thing can happen to Warsangali if they join the revolution!

The last scenario is SL and Dhulbanahte reaching a new agreement under it's occupation based on a new powersharing and corrects every thing wich is unlikely.

 

[Mr. Wabrii]

The way Dhulbanahte switch sides, i would wait for some time to see what happens. You never know what could happen in the last min.

 

[LL247]

CBB have latched on to legitimate clan grievance in Somaliland whether it pays off for CBB or the elements of the clan in question i could not say but it does poses an existential threat to Somaliland

 

[Bowda-dheer]

Once they get rid of Somaliland in their lands anything possible can happen. If khatumo is not made a reality half of them would still be eating with puntland. Somaliland coming back will be a hard one as ssc elites who brought somaliland to lascanod found out the hardway when reer hargeisa tried to take away their business (khat monopoly). Punt land doesn’t give them crazy money but they also don’t try to take over their businesses like Somaliland.

 

[Waamoking]

If wadanis take over the Somaliland project things will change,they’ll reconsider secession

 

[GaradShabeel]

If wadanis take over the Somaliland project things will change,they’ll reconsider secession

In theory I agree, however as long as the south remains occupied and not fully stabilized, in a near future, I have a hard time seeing this being possible.

 

[GemState]

There are three scenarios one is pushed by Djibouti which is keeping Somaliland as one entity and hosting the final negotiations with Mogadishu which may lead to her changing it's separatist position and getting ready "for a North-South powersharing" and self-governing but when? Once she is no longer in Control of SSC but still threatening with militarily action.

The other scenario is that Mogadishu government does not want a new Dblock state " enough for them to have a headache is dealing with Puntland and Jubaland" but it is possible to put Sool region under the Ministry of the Interior until unity with SL for electoral purposes. The government does not intend to do direct elections aka one-man one-vote elections but it wants a better model than the previous model like the number of voters/delegates would be more and could reach 1k for each seat and the voting stations would be in more cities so it would try to get the Dhulbahante votes In Laascaanood instead of Garowe and Boosaso, Same thing can happen to Warsangali if they join the revolution!

The last scenario is SL and Dhulbanahte reaching a new agreement under it's occupation based on a new powersharing and corrects every thing wich is unlikely.

The 300 IQ move from SL at this point would've been to stop shelling Lascaanod, do some BS reconcillation meeting and do a 50/50 North-South deal with the FGS in exchange for directly administering SSC & maybe moving in the capital to the North. I'd say no to that, but the FGS & IC would probably accept it.

But we are 68ers so what will probably happen is a Kashmir situation where neither side accepts the line of control and fighting sporadically erupts intermittently over a few years.

 

[GaradShabeel]

The 300 IQ move from SL at this point would've been to stop shelling Lascaanod, do some BS reconcillation meeting and do a 50/50 North-South deal with the FGS in exchange for directly administering SSC & maybe moving in the capital to the North. I'd say no to that, but the FGS & IC would probably accept it.

What will probably happen is a Kashmir situation where neither side accepts the line of control and fighting sporadically erupt intermittently over a few years.

Don't forget that that PL is a powerful player here. Your suggestion would've been possible maybe 30 years ago, once the regime was first ousted. Today, I have a hard time seeing PL settling for anything less than maybe a 3-way state or something similar, than simply a North-South deal.

 

[The Midlands]

If wadanis take over the Somaliland project things will change,they’ll reconsider secession

They have no chance. Only within kulmiye maybe Garxajis candidate can have a chance.

 

[The Midlands]

Don't forget that that PL is a powerful player here. Your suggestion would've been possible maybe 30 years ago, once the regime was first ousted. Today, I have a hard time seeing PL settling for anything less than maybe a 3-way state or something similar, than simply a North-South deal.

that why i put it between quotation marks also the North includes SSC but it will not be 50/50

There is another Puntland option but it depends on the support of all SSC parties. It is an opportunity for PL to get involved militarily in the name of PL but things may go back to square one.

 

[Burqad]

Don't forget that that PL is a powerful player here. Your suggestion would've been possible maybe 30 years ago, once the regime was first ousted. Today, I have a hard time seeing PL settling for anything less than maybe a 3-way state or something similar, than simply a North-South deal.

No one would protest in puntland. Since when have we puntlanders cared about what the federal government does? If they want to put the capital on the moon that’s their business according to the constitution.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Don't forget that that PL is a powerful player here. Your suggestion would've been possible maybe 30 years ago, once the regime was first ousted. Today, I have a hard time seeing PL settling for anything less than maybe a 3-way state or something similar, than simply a North-South deal.

PL would crumble under international pressure to accept such a deal if it was to be negotiated between FGS and SL

 

[Diaspora ambassador]

PL would crumble under international pressure to accept such a deal if it was to be negotiated between FGS and SL

Somaliland lost its victim card.

Ssc will become a fms cry us all a river.

The fms have a say in their future's aswell

Especially PL since it also gave up a lot of its resources in precious times to establish the damn fgs.

Thia Dir Isaaq Hawiye threesome will only result in more fucktup shit.

Say it with me every fms has rights in our republic.

Sharing a country with you guys is a true headache. The few with political intellect are threatened by mooriyaan

 

[GaradShabeel]

No one would protest in puntland. Since when have we puntlanders cared about what the federal government does? If they want to put the capital on the moon that’s their business according to the constitution.

So no one in PL would care about finalizing the constitution, in particular the federal- & power sharing structure between FGS and FMS? (Especially in a scenario where SL would be open to reconcile with Xamar). This is one of the main point of contention between PL and the federal gov't, that has drifted them further away. You must have responded to something else.

PL would crumble under international pressure to accept such a deal if it was to be negotiated between FGS and SL

They would face huge pressure, but I have a hard time seeing the negotiation advancing, without PL presence to begin with. Even in the statement from PL gov't last month that received lot of attention, was this remark highlighted. They mentioned clearly how there needs to be some form of negotiations between SL and PL. In the end, IC would at some point realize and pressure FGS to include both SL and PL in the negotiations and satisfy both of them. Before it can be fruitful.