USA to Abiy: no changing internal or external borders

[Gadhwayne]

From AFP, American secretary of state said told Abiy:

that neither the internal nor external borders of Ethiopia will be changed

USA/EU felt TPLF regime was more reliable/stable. The plan is to find a strongman from the Ethiopian urban elite, most likely Axmaara/Qoti, who can can keep things together without eliciting too much ethnonationalist vioence, especially if Abiy loses too much ground to OLA. The Micrabawi zone and Wolqayit annexation into Axmaara state has to be put on hold.

Assuming ONLF wins kililka5aad elections, they are expected to waive article 39 independence. Or else

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[digaagjecel]

So pretty much they don’t want Ethiopia to Balkanize, kind of ironic coming from country who causes other countries to break apart from each other.

 

[Ibro]

So pretty much they don’t want Ethiopia to Balkanize, kind of ironic coming from country who causes other countries to break apart from each other.

I disagree, they probably don't want Ethiopia to balkanise like Yugoslavia but instead more like the Soviet Union. They did say "that neither the internal nor external borders of Ethiopia will be changed by force or in contravention of the constitution". Contravention by definition just meaning bit by "an action which offends against a law, treaty, or other rulings". Essentially, the US is saying it willing to accept succession from Ethiopia if it's done peacefully and by the books. You have to remember Ethiopia constitution allows for a referendum for independence under Article 39.

 

[digaagjecel]

I disagree, they probably don't want Ethiopia to balkanise like Yugoslavia but instead more like the Soviet Union. They did say "that neither the internal nor external borders of Ethiopia will be changed by force or in contravention of the constitution". Contravention by definition just meaning bit by "an action which offends against a law, treaty, or other rulings". Essentially, the US is saying it willing to accept succession from Ethiopia if it's done peacefully and by the books. You have to remember Ethiopia constitution allows for a referendum for independence under Article 39.

it’s crazy for the first time in history to see America stay neutral on issues like these.

 

[Ibro]

it’s crazy for the first time in history to see America stay neutral on issues like these.

Pretty much. The EU and US goals are keeping the Horn Africa stable. Due to distance from one of the world's sea trading lanes (Red Sea and Gulf of Aden).

Right now in the Horn, Somalia and South Sudan are both recovering from a devastating civil war, Sudan is in an unstable transition to democracy that could be potentially derailed, Eritrea and Djibouti are unstable states due to dictatorial rulership and now you have Ethiopia that could potentially have a Yugoslav style civil war.

 

[Gadhwayne]

I disagree, they probably don't want Ethiopia to balkanise like Yugoslavia but instead more like the Soviet Union. They did say "that neither the internal nor external borders of Ethiopia will be changed by force or in contravention of the constitution". Contravention by definition just meaning bit by "an action which offends against a law, treaty, or other rulings". Essentially, the US is saying it willing to accept succession from Ethiopia if it's done peacefully and by the books. You have to remember Ethiopia constitution allows for a referendum for independence under Article 39.

I left out the sweet nothings about force and constitutionalism. Article 39 is verboten. ask Cabdi Iley when he finally allegedly got around to do just that, he ended up unexpectedly resigning. A more likely scenario is AddisAbaba focusing on rebellions in central Ethiopia. Ogaadeeniya becomes as free from AddisAbaba as PL/JSL are from Muqdisho. In that scenario, article 39 can be invoked but AddisAbaba will not recognize them

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Lets hope the Ethiopian constitution is followed but dont be surprised if some parts of it are ignored