Source: https://docs.un.org/en/S/2025/482
Main takeways:
1. Taliban still hosts and supports various terror groups, including AQ. Some of these groups(Tajik Taliban, Uzbek union, and Turkestan Islamic Party), are affiliated with AQ, and do anti-daesh activities.
2. The aforementioned TIP is a potential linkage between Damascus and Kabul. Both branches of the Turkestan Islamic Party are subordinate to the Taliban and HTS, and there has been movement between the two countries. Despite rhetorical desire, the TIP has no functional way to attack China.
3. Alkebab remains active in doing offensive operations. For the naysayers, they will do not have the ability or support to take Xamar, but remain the world's most dangerous terror group.
4. Hurras al-din(AQ loyalists in Syria), are largely inactive. Main leaders have likely left the country, and one HaD fighter died fighting in Suwayda. They are close to the Kurdish group Ansar al-islam, which has a growing presence in Syria. The group is largely inactive however. Meanwhile IS is largely focused on attacking the SDF, but has done limited attacks agains the SFA(American backed Tanf base group, that is now part of the Syrian gov), and done sectarian attacks under the name "Saraya Ansar al-sunnah", which appears to be a loose collection of HTS defectors and HaD operators that are increasingly appearing to be close, if not affiliated to IS.
5. West Africa is in a state of crisis. JNIM/AQIM is rampaging across the following countries: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Nigeria. The local IS affiliate is on the other hand, largely unable to take advantage of this outside of Niger, and remains focused on survival amid increased pressure by JNIM/AQIM. ISWAP is largely growing, having replaced Boko Haram as the main terror group in NE Nigeria.
6. As a whole, IS is struggling, the only branch of the fake caliphate growing is ISWAP(which may change with the growing JNIM/AQIM presence), and every other one is struggling to maintain operational tempo. The main issue is that the main benefactor is AQ, which would then need to spend less resources competing with IS.
Main takeways:
1. Taliban still hosts and supports various terror groups, including AQ. Some of these groups(Tajik Taliban, Uzbek union, and Turkestan Islamic Party), are affiliated with AQ, and do anti-daesh activities.
2. The aforementioned TIP is a potential linkage between Damascus and Kabul. Both branches of the Turkestan Islamic Party are subordinate to the Taliban and HTS, and there has been movement between the two countries. Despite rhetorical desire, the TIP has no functional way to attack China.
3. Alkebab remains active in doing offensive operations. For the naysayers, they will do not have the ability or support to take Xamar, but remain the world's most dangerous terror group.
4. Hurras al-din(AQ loyalists in Syria), are largely inactive. Main leaders have likely left the country, and one HaD fighter died fighting in Suwayda. They are close to the Kurdish group Ansar al-islam, which has a growing presence in Syria. The group is largely inactive however. Meanwhile IS is largely focused on attacking the SDF, but has done limited attacks agains the SFA(American backed Tanf base group, that is now part of the Syrian gov), and done sectarian attacks under the name "Saraya Ansar al-sunnah", which appears to be a loose collection of HTS defectors and HaD operators that are increasingly appearing to be close, if not affiliated to IS.
5. West Africa is in a state of crisis. JNIM/AQIM is rampaging across the following countries: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Nigeria. The local IS affiliate is on the other hand, largely unable to take advantage of this outside of Niger, and remains focused on survival amid increased pressure by JNIM/AQIM. ISWAP is largely growing, having replaced Boko Haram as the main terror group in NE Nigeria.
6. As a whole, IS is struggling, the only branch of the fake caliphate growing is ISWAP(which may change with the growing JNIM/AQIM presence), and every other one is struggling to maintain operational tempo. The main issue is that the main benefactor is AQ, which would then need to spend less resources competing with IS.
