Somaliland might of made a big mistake when supporting UAE. By gaining control of Bosaso and Berbera port they essentially have a monopoly on the Area.The way I see it UAE will do two things,:

1. They build up both ports to a maximum and cause rapid Economic growth in the Area.This will anger Djibouti but help Ethiopia greatly.By having access to more ports they can bulk sell at a faster rate and thus make a huge profit.Somaliland will also benefit from this alliance with UAE who will make hundreds of millions off the port. This coupled with the training of Somaliland army by UAE will grant them a lot of clout. Hence the investors from abroad will support Somaliland independence leading to a free Somaliland. The down sides of this event is that Somaliland is currently suffering from parties based on tribal line along with widespread corruption.If the government can crack down on this they will benefit greatly.

2.The more plausible outcome is that UAE actually sabotages the improvement of the ports. This will hinder Ethiopia greatly as the lack of funds arriving causes the landlocked Ethiopia to suffer from poverty and a lower GDP.This coupled with the ongoing fighting within the country will force Ethiopia to her knees.UAE might do this for Egypts sake as Egypt and Ethiopia are currently at loggerheads over Damming of the Nile.This also benefits UAE as it causes more revenue gained by UAE ports which wont bother going through the red sea.

Finally, where does this leave Somalia? Somali government needs to act quickly by reducing UAE influence in the north as it will cause an increasing instability of the country. Somalia however, wont be able to achieve this and will instead simply spiral out of control as usual.


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