This is all hot air nothing substantive behind. No, Tigrean elites would not go the independence route knowing very well this is the most stupid decision they made. Look, if Tigray secedes tomorrow it will have almost zero effect on Ethiopia but the effects on Tigray will be huge in political, social, security and economic terms. Tigray society will be torn apart since there is no consensus among Tigreans on this matter. A huge chunk of the society see themselves as pure Ethiopians and will fight to stay within Ethiopia. Both the elites and the society will be divided which will open the door for other external forces (mainly Ethiopia and Eritrea) to influence Tigray internal matters. Economically it is simply suicidal since Tigray is heavily dependent on Ethiopia and doing business with Ethiopia in hard currency is equal to a death sentence.
There is also another sever issue and that is the border dispute Tigray has both with Eritrea and the Amhara region. In fact the border dispute with Amhara region will overnight turn into a dispute between two countries Tigray and Ethiopia. Tigray then has two face both Eritrea and Ethiopia. That is all crazy. No wonder one of the most influential and top TPLF leaders recently compared the idea of independence like jumping into fire. Believe me even if the federal government tomorrow declares war on Tigray, I don't think TPLF goes the independence rule.
You have to try to understand why TPLF and some tigrean elites is playing with this idea. Most Ethiopians know their mentality and very well understand they don't mean it really. All this crap talk has only one aim. They want to send a message to Ethiopians that Ethiopia is disintegrating under the leadership of an Oromo and so Ethiopians should stand with TPLF to save Ethiopia. In other words TPLF wants to use this independence talk to come back to power. That is the most TPLF cares about and that is why no Ethiopian is worried about Tigray seceding. It is just hot air.
Slowly but surely TPLF and tigrean elites will swallow the fact that Ethiopians don't want to go back the cruel TPLF rule and are for now happy with the oromo PM Abiy. TPLF should wait until Abiy makes many mistakes and until people get fed up. But for now he is doing well, no one misses TPLF, they can secede if they want. No one cares about it.