If Farmaajo steals a 2nd term, I can see the opposition trying to take back their Federal States through rebel armies. Once that happens, I can see the UN forcing Somalia into a permanent trusteeship and AMISOM will stay for even longer to maintain their fat salaries.
The international community knows this country is a joke and needs to either be annexed by neighbouring states or in a permanent UN trusteeship. Nobody will tolerate another civil war and Europe will not take more Somali refugees.
If you think this current disgrace of a government is bad, just wait what happens when Farmaajo gets 4 more years. Undoubtedly, the Kacaanist cult is prepared to burn Somalia to spite it.