The so-called Chinese embassy in Somalia reacts to Senator Cruz's letter
- Thread starter Itsnotthateasy
- Start date
Itsnotthateasy
VIP
Just follow his Twitter at this point. He has all the updates.
What do you think about the comment from their source in the white house? Just don’t want to show their cards or
Trump will not break international protocol to appease SL, no matter how strategic it is for them or Israel. Somalia has the laws and donors on its side. Warkaan waa iska fanfare, it will be forgotten about in a few weeks. British parliamentarians who spent years and months advocating for their former protectorate could not get anywhere. The Americans are not rash to do something no one else seeks to do given the divisive and conflict prone nature of East Africa.
Itsnotthateasy
VIP
US intervention put FGS on the map, UN, AU, EU and the rest of the west all followed. It was the strategic calculation at the time, now it's being adjusted for Somaliland recongition. FGS can remain in it's borders and just try to do it's best.
Is the new game to pretend it's not US policy why the FGS even exists and continues to exist?
Last edited:
The US Intervention and US foreign policy are related but seperate. Related on the War on Terror where the US intervened in seven Muslim countries. Foreign policy generally follows the mandate of the IC and UN who have been working in Somalia since 1960 and helped every government or non state actor in some capacity. The rare exception is Israel, who i haven't seen speak much on the Horn.
Itsnotthateasy
VIP
Kosovo is more relevant.
The Kosovo Conditions And The Case For American Unilateral Recognition Of Somaliland
Analyzing the United States’ recognition of Kosovo in 2008, this essay presents a framework to guide the successful use of a president’s constitutional powers of sovereign recognition, particularly in the absence of international consensus. It then applies these “Kosovo conditions” to the...
I don't understand why people bring up Kosovo. That situation was completely different from Somaliland.
Itsnotthateasy
VIP
If there's national interest in recognizing and supporting a democracy on the Red Sea as counter to Chinese domination vs the Russian sphere of influence with Kosovo. I would argue they are very similar.
The so called Chinese domination isn't really a thing in the Horn. With Kosovo, Serbia was very clearly in Russia's sphere of influence hence why America recognized Kosovo as a power move against Russia.
Itsnotthateasy
VIP
Red Sea is a very important region and China currently owns Djibouti which has a monopoly on Ethiopian trade making China too powerful. China is likely to entrench itself with FGS as well. FGS not aligned with US interests. Not following through on security interests even after substantial funding etc.
Djibouti is a shared country. America, France, Italy and Japan also have bases there and all those countries are either under America influence or directly allied with the U.S.
As for China entrenching itself within FGS, again I don't see that as likely since the biggest donors of FGS is the U.S itself. America is their lifeline so they are unlikely to do any rash actions that would turn them away.
America is pretty much done with Djibouti. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...rena-for-us-china-competition-in-the-red-sea/
@SpaceyCadet Once that railway from Berbera to Addis is built y’all will need to find new revenue
America isn't abandoning Djibouti anytime soon. Its a key strategic asset and they are closely working with the UAE that also has investments there. In fact, your article flat out states Djibouti shares an interest with Israel in safeguarding the Red Sea. So much for that supposed Israeli-Somaliland alliance.
Itsnotthateasy
VIP
The head of African Affairs in the state deparment hasn't been appointed yet. The review would happen after that and would recommend Somaliland independence. End of one-Somalia policy.
State department take their cues from the executive and congress. Bills like this will help:
SomaliSteel
No dictator can imprison a population forever.
"Recognition is around the corner, look at this twitter post"
Itsnotthateasy
VIP
So Somalian are activating rebels for no reason? Trying to build states in Lascaanood for no reason?
Somalians are reaching the top of their escalation ladder. Not much left to throw at the situation.
Last edited:
I dont think you understand how Congress works. That's a report from the House Appropriations Committee, not a bill. If you actually look up the bill for 2026, Somaliland is nowhere to be mentioned.The head of African Affairs in the state deparment hasn't been appointed yet. The review would happen after that and would recommend Somaliland independence. End of one-Somalia policy.
State department take their cues from the executive and congress. Bills like this will help:
View attachment 370829
African state fragility ironically protects Somalia.
Why Africa's Weak States Persist
The Surprising Durability Of Africa’s Colonial Borders
The US has no interest in opening the can of worms that is unilateral secession. If Somalia, which willingly united in 1961, can be broken apart what stops Ambazonia from leaving Cameroon? Why should NFD remain part of Kenya? Should Azawad leave Mali? etc...
Where are the limits? The answer is that there are probably none. If you start breaking Africa's states, you will not know where to stop. Africa is a special in that almost all states south of the Sahara are quite weak and if secession spreads it could mean that at least a dozen countries implode. Incredibly risky for Europe and for the US by extension.
I think Somalia should get in touch with the Europeans as they have a vested interest in keeping Africa relatively stable.
Why Africa's Weak States Persist
The Surprising Durability Of Africa’s Colonial Borders
The US has no interest in opening the can of worms that is unilateral secession. If Somalia, which willingly united in 1961, can be broken apart what stops Ambazonia from leaving Cameroon? Why should NFD remain part of Kenya? Should Azawad leave Mali? etc...
Where are the limits? The answer is that there are probably none. If you start breaking Africa's states, you will not know where to stop. Africa is a special in that almost all states south of the Sahara are quite weak and if secession spreads it could mean that at least a dozen countries implode. Incredibly risky for Europe and for the US by extension.
I think Somalia should get in touch with the Europeans as they have a vested interest in keeping Africa relatively stable.
