The drought in Somalia is becoming a famine.

[Thegoodshepherd]

The Deyr rains have failed, there will be no harvest in January and all grazing will have run out in much of Somalia early in the same month. I predict a famine in April/May of 2017. From today until the end of April no rain is expected, and the situation is already horrible. Almost half of the country, 5 million people, need emergency humanitarian aid. This could be another 2011.

http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/food-security-outlook-update/november-2016

In October, it was assumed that pasture and water resources would seasonally improve alongside Deyr rainfall. However, rainfall has been insufficient for pasture regeneration in most areas.

Current forecasts indicate that the April to June 2017 Gu rains will be below average.

From February to May, food security is expected to deteriorate throughout Somalia. Food insecurity will be the most severe in agropastoral areas of southern and central Somalia where many poor households will not harvest any crops. With limited labor opportunities, little to no household harvests, and likely high staple cereal prices, food insecurity is expected deteriorate significantly and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely. Furthermore, if the 2017 Gu season is below average, as currently forecast, a third consecutive below-average season is likely and further deterioration in food security is expected. A more thorough analysis will be conducted in December to update expected food security outcomes through May 2017.

IPC4 is just before IPC5 which is Catastrophe (aka famine). What does not make sense is if the situation is expected to be IPC4 and further deteriorate, why not just say "we project a famine in Somalia"? My guess is they don't want to be seen as alarmists, but alarm bells should be going off everywhere.

Conditions are the worst ever recorded in over 30 years, even worse than 2011 when 260,000 people died.
http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/alert/november-11-2016

 

[Bahal]

 

[somebody]

The Deyr rains have failed, there will be no harvest in January and all grazing will have run out in much of Somalia early in the same month. I predict a famine in April/May of 2017. From today until the end of April no rain is expected, and the situation is already horrible. Almost half of the country, 5 million people, need emergency humanitarian aid. This could be another 2011.

http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/food-security-outlook-update/november-2016






IPC4 is just before IPC5 which is Catastrophe (aka famine). What does not make sense is if the situation is expected to be IPC4 and further deteriorate, why not just say "we project a famine in Somalia"? My guess is they don't want to be seen as alarmists, but alarm bells should be going off everywhere.

Conditions are the worst ever recorded in over 30 years, even worse than 2011 when 260,000 people died.
http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/alert/november-11-2016

In which areas?

 

[Inactive]

The nomadic lifestyle should be banned until the government increases access to food (economic and physical access).

 

[SomaliWadaniSoldier]

We can collect money.

But who can protect our money from hungry hyenas posing as govts?


And come on!!!

We have fucking biggest coast.Make the ocean empty.
Let there be fish!


There is huge mismanagement and failure in Somalia(from hargeisa till raskambooni).
There is no way a nation can suffer from famine with all the fishes and the yearly fertile lands in shabellaha hoose shabeellaha dhexe, jubbada dhexe jubbada hoose etc.
Did u know only shabeellaha hoose can provide food for 10million Somalis if it is managed correct!?!?

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The nomadic lifestyle should be banned until the government increases access to food (economic and physical access).

I think the biggest problem is that Alshabab hold almost all of the agricultural land in Southern Somalia. They control Bay, Lower Shabelle, and the Juba valley. The only state with substantial agricultural production outside of their control is Middle Shabelle. Only when you have liberated those areas will you be able to address the famine issue. As long as Alshabab maintains control over Somalia's food producing regions, you can expect a famine every 5th year.

 

[SomaliWadaniSoldier]

I think the biggest problem is that Alshabab hold almost all of the agricultural land in Southern Somalia. They control Bay, Lower Shabelle, and the Juba valley. The only state with substantial agricultural production outside of their control is Middle Shabelle. Only when you have liberated those areas will you be able to address the famine issue. As long as Alshabab maintains control over Somalia's food producing regions, you can expect a famine every 5th year.

If the terrorists are gone, who can protect the milk and honey from hungry hyenas posing as govts and clear mooryaans?

 

[Inactive]

I think the biggest problem is that Alshabab hold almost all of the agricultural land in Southern Somalia. They control Bay, Lower Shabelle, and the Juba valley. The only state with substantial agricultural production outside of their control is Middle Shabelle. Only when you have liberated those areas will you be able to address the famine issue. As long as Alshabab maintains control over Somalia's food producing regions, you can expect a famine every 5th year.

@SomaliWadaniSoldier is right.

I think the alternative is just as bad now that I think of it. They sell food aid to businessmen. Food aid was seen sold in the market in big cities.

 

[Apollo]

It's always the South with the most causalities, while the dry North perseveres. Is there a big IQ difference between North and South Somalis? Why aren't Southies able plan ahead?

 

[Adheer Warsame]

The biggest problem we currently have is al Shabaab
They control the agricultural areas and halt economic growth in Mogadishu

Which makes the country unable to feed itself.

Somalis won't care though, gaza is probably going to get karbaashed by then. No one will care

 

[maestro]

It's always the South with the most causalities, while the dry North perseveres. Is there a big IQ difference between North and South Somalis? Why aren't Southies able plan ahead?

The North is trade based while the south relies heavily on agriculture. The Nomads in the North will still be hit hard.

 

[Jujuman]

A sad situation. We know Somalia is a land prone to drought and the forecasts say these droughts will increase in frequency throughout this century. Food has to be stockpiled in anticipation of these droughts, but in a failed state like Somalia that is a big ask.

 

[Deactivated]

Is it me or many people on this site just talk out of thier asses?

I can't count how many times I read the phrase "The biggest problem is" and these two killer words "We need".

Earlier today I got off the phone with a Harvestor in Jubbavalley, the reality on the ground is different than what people are reading and hearing. Rain has been falling, but these guys are growing drought resistant cereals so they are on schedule but expect a slight drop in yield. Food aid won't buy thier crops to sell to market. Jubbaland has the AID to help the people but, the governement would rather get AID money--free food to disperse than to invest in the Jubbavalley and get Agro out to people. If they can't make money off it they aren't interested.

If you haven't held Somali Agro products in your hands don't speak on them.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

And all i see on FB is pray for allepo or syria and not a post about thier own damn people dying of thirst/hunger

 

[waraabe]

famine land

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

WFP says what FEWS was skirting around the edges of:

A scenario of a third drought affected season in a row should be considered, potentially leading to a situation similar to the 2010-2011 humanitarian crisis

Across most of Somalia and SE Ethiopia, recovery is no longer possible as the rainfall season has ended. In Kenya and southern Somalia, a longer season and better rains from mid November can still allow some recovery in pastoral areas.

The drought is largely comparable to Oct-Nov 2010 except for coastal Kenya, northern Somalia, SE Ethiopia where it may be worse. Unlike the 2010 drought which was preceded by a good season, in 2016 the coping capacities of the most vulnerable households are already reduced given poor March-May rains.

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/wfp289530.pdf

It has rained in Northern Puntland, but that won't change much of the overall picture, especially for South-Central Somalia.
This is bad, 2011 Famine bad.

 

[bluebird]

The nomadic lifestyle should be banned until the government increases access to food (economic and physical access).

this^ nomads suck the land dry but never replenish it. it's harmful in the long run

 

[Faqash]

I dont know about northern somalia but it has been raining heavily in mogadishu last three weeks.blame alshabab for everything.

 

[SultanuuFicaan]

Eternal shame one after another. When will ALLAH S.W.T uplift this humiliation we have gone through within the last three decades? With such a long coastline, arable lands and abundance of livestock aswell. YAAB, simply YAAB.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

FSNAU finally admits what they should have admitted a month ago, Somalia is entering a famine. There are at least 4 months to go before the first rains and animals are already dying in large numbers. They should have issued this alert a month ago, but I guess better late than never.

Severe drought, rising prices, continued access limitations, and dry forecasts suggest Famine is possible in 2017

http://www.fsnau.org/in-focus/somalia-food-security-alert-january-2017

@AbdiJohnson please move this thread to the general section and make it a sticky. More people should be seeing it. thx