The Dangers Of Centralized Somalia

[DR OSMAN]

I think it's best for PL n JL to sit down and discuss if we waste more time on federalism or begin balkanization of Somalia and call it the Somali Penisula similar to the Gulf Penisula with many independent states. I say 'time' becuz we wasted 15 national conferences on 1 government since 91-98 and that was a 8 year loss. It seems like federalism is heading towards that path, the enemies of federalism are basically 'dragging' it out long longer and stalling and stalling like they did in the 15 national conference prior to federalism. What is their agenda is? I don't know but some suspect the Mogadishu ppl prefer 'no state outcome' especially their business people. But they have always 'stalled' no matter whatever system is proposed in the past till today.

I suggest we follow this strategy of balkanization and name the region as the Somali Pennisula with PL/JL/SW/SL completely independent and sovereign. GM/HS/Mogdishu can discuss their own future. We must tell the world a centralized somalia is a danger to Somalis as proven under siyad barre where he attacked ppl using state resources, he neglected regional areas economically, and eventually became a menace to neighboring countries. What fuelled this was centralism.

We must consider a Somali resolution model that is realistic to Somalia. Why I am not confident of federalism is their is nothing in Somalia or abroad that Somalis are united on whether its diaspora communities, civil societies, religious, women's group, youth groups, sport groups, even the national SNTV doesn't unite us as every region has it's own separate media, civil group, women's group, diaspora, sports group, youth group. I cannot point to anything where Somalis are united and to think 1 nation will be a solution requires to much faith.

The Balkan model can even be applied over a 100 year time period, and after such time Somalis can review if it's better to keep that model or begin merging thru confederation like the E.U. The I.C can be re-assured that copy-cat movements in other countries can be disqualified becuz Somalia has a unique justification. It's the 'longest running failed state in modern history' and therefore a unique model to itself that others will find hard to replicate as they will need to have a 'state collapse' lasting 30 years and more before Somali model is considered.

The other option for Somalis is watch a monster emerge from a centralized Somalia that will attack n economically embargo regions due to political disagreements, it will threaten neighboring countries as seen in 70s-80s, it may even house 'terror' groups world-wide depending on the 'leaders leanings'. This can all be avoided by implementing a balkan model or at the very least a confederation model and as I outlined it will be a national solution not a 'clan or 1 region solution'. We can also prevent other nations copy-cats or separatists to use our model to disturb their countries becuz for them to use our model will require a '30 year failed state stipulations' before they can be assessed for the Somali Model.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Balkan Model 4 Somalia

1. Stipulation this model only applies to nations in conflict n state collapse for 30 years and longer, no other conflict or separatist agendas in other nations can use this model to destabilize their government. This model requires a failed state status for 30 years longer. This stipulation to the Somali model clearly keeps other nations or countries safe from copy-cat movements or destabilizers.

2. Balkan Model is more consistent with Somali culture. Their isn't anything unitary in our culture that we can reflect to and adopt, all our civil society, diaspora, religious, womens, youth, sporting are totally 'seperate' proving we work better independent from each other not TOGETHER. Even our nation's SNTV created PL/JL/GM/SL separate tvs. This proves anything unitary just breaks down and we go our separate way on everything, this is how our states should be also. However our state is on 'wishes n faith' not on emperical evidence as I provided.

 

[DR OSMAN]

The new generation of Somalia post 91 are fed up with constant bickering, stalling, extending the civil war, they are mature enough to see emperical evidence and not go by blind faith as federalism requires. Emperical evidence suggests Somalia should be re-named Somali Pennisula, have independent states, and begin ushering in progress n development.


We don't want the never-ending conflict that unitarism brings

 

[DubatDiaries]

complete separate states or the UAE model?

 

[DR OSMAN]

complete separate states or the UAE model?

Like the GCC it's known as thee arabian penisula with independent states or at the very least the EU model with a 'symbolic' capital with 'oversight' power but not policy or decision making. They can oversee the regions, provide best advice, but no enforcement or decision making power.

 

[DubatDiaries]

Emperical evidence suggests Somalia should be re-named Somali Pennisula, have independent states, and begin ushering in progress n development.

so each qabiil has their own state? don't you think they will balkanize further along the lines of sub clans. Especially for the larger clans?

 

[DR OSMAN]

@a_bilan that's possible but i don't see any unitary system in Somalia or the diaspora. civil, religious, youth, women, sports, diaspora community it don't exist, why would 1 nation work when those didn't? Show me anything thats unitary that works, not even SNTV unites us looooooool

 

[DR OSMAN]

@a_bilan the other thing to consider if regional govt don't work, those close to each other district wise, the idea a national govt will work is off the table also which is further from them.

 

[DubatDiaries]

@a_bilan that's possible but i don't see any unitary system in Somalia or the diaspora. civil, religious, youth, women, sports, diaspora community it don't exist, why would 1 nation work when those didn't? Show me anything thats unitary that works, not even SNTV unites us looooooool

I understand but I don't think we should give into these Somalis with their qabiil delusions. It will never end.
We can't run a functioning country like that.

 

[Hilmaam]

there is no Somalia without HG, Isaaq, MJ, abgal, dhulos, abgal, mx….The poets, the musicians, the politicians ,warriors all the clans contributed big part of our history and heritage. Balkinization not based in reality with current vision powers of be have for Africa. Best is do like Rwanda put past behind us be involved in constitution process and ensure each state has own military and strong local government. Fgs gets power to call upon each military when the Christian raw meaters eventually act up and try to get access to coast they have eye on.

 

[Abaq]

there is no Somalia without HG, Isaaq, MJ, abgal, dhulos, abgal, mx….The poets, the musicians, the politicians ,warriors all the clans contributed big part of our history and heritage. Balkinization not based in reality with current vision powers of be have for Africa. Best is do like Rwanda put past behind us be involved in constitution process and ensure each state has own military and strong local government. Fgs gets power to call upon each military when the Christian raw meaters eventually act up and try to get access to coast they have eye on.

Rwanda is different because one side won and imposed their will on the other side. Unfortunately for Somalia, no one won the civil war so we are left in a stalemate

 

[GemState]

Federalism in Somalia is a stop gap at best.

IMO Somalis have 2 fundamental options, that will lead to a definitive solution that are consistent with democratic and consensual government, based on respect for the principles of self-determination and of international law:

1) To re-establish a unitary Somalia;
2) To form two or more independent states that have no constitutional ties with one another.

BTW, same goes for Ethiopia, DRC, South Sudan, etc. Common African problem