The clans that will benefit from the fall of AL Shabaab

[The Midlands]

Hawadle: They became a big political weight in Gobolada dhexe in post-Macawisley era they were the first to honour Hassan Sheikh in the international arena. Look at Hassan Sheikhs' companions in Baidoa like Waare and Sanbaloolshe even Godah is an ally he was promised some thing like ambassador that suits him bc he is ill he wants to ensure that the whole clan is on his side and they will lead Hirshabelle in his second year.

Gaaljecel: Their towns are now forgotten outside of Baledweyne and the first thing they will enjoy will be to get services and development that was concentrated on the "Eastern Hiiraan"


Marehan: Yes, the current security situation in JL is not in their favour but after two years their situation will change and they may take advantage of filling the security vacuum in there. The liberation of JL will automatically lead to the end of the article 51 that gives any country the right to make buffer zones in their neighbouring countries as some sort of self-defense this is the Article Kenya and Turkey use for Somalia and Syria.

Cawlyahan OG: After the liberation of Jubada dhexe they will demand a social contract to rule their period as in PL atleast OG will be like HG subclans in Galmudug.

SHIIKHAAL in Jubada dhexe: Lugadheere will be in JILIB mukulaal minankeeda joogta THE RETURN OF AAKHIROMOOG!

Murusade: They will have their first regional influence over a decade outside the capital and the power will spread outside of HG it is possible the parliament to be moved to Ceelbuur. Will likely enter Alliance with Duduble( Mataanaha ceelbuur coalition founded by MP Dhageey and MP Dhagdheer)

WACEYSLE Abgaal: It will be a symbolic victory for Hassan Sheikh who is descended from them and they will enjoy a highway that connects them to Mogadishu

D&M: Leesaan(roobow)subclan) HADAAMO(Adan madobe subclan) EELAAY(Jawaari subclan), BOQOL HORE(Fargeeti Subclan).ASHARAAF(SAKIIN SUBCLAN)

Current sitting clan Xariin (Laftagareen)

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

If all this were true Al Shabab wouldn't exist. The truth is that the collective tribalist vehement clan identity only exists with qaxootis like us in the diaspora and the elite who benefit. The average civilian wants nothing to do with tribal agenda which is why Al Shabab have found success ruling the south with a two Dir Emirs and the Somali government couldn't solve anything with tribal power sharing.

The truth is that tribe s a smokescreen for the current Somali bourgeoisie to remain in power. It's in a symbiosis relationship with Al Shabab. Once a golo deegaan is declared in Xarardheere or Ceeldheere it will have a qabiil power sharing method causing in fighting and destruction. Al Shabab's administration of this vast region existed for so long because they made sure to sideline tribal politics and make it only ceremonial.

Tribal politics is not something we can win a country destroyed by tribal war. It's like Rawanda legalizing a tribal powersharing between Hutu and Tutsi which would create another war or even genocide. Wake the hell up.

 

[The Midlands]

If all this were true Al Shabab wouldn't exist. The truth is that the collective tribalist vehement clan identity only exists with qaxootis like us in the diaspora and the elite who benefit. The average civilian wants nothing to do with tribal agenda which is why Al Shabab have found success ruling the south with a two Dir Emirs and the Somali government couldn't solve anything with tribal power sharing.

The truth is that tribe s a smokescreen for the current Somali bourgeoisie to remain in power. It's in a symbiosis relationship with Al Shabab. Once a golo deegaan is declared in Xarardheere or Ceeldheere it will have a qabiil power sharing method causing in fighting and destruction. Al Shabab's administration of this vast region existed for so long because they made sure to sideline tribal politics and make it only ceremonial.

Tribal politics is not something we can win a country destroyed by tribal war. It's like Rawanda legalizing a tribal powersharing between Hutu and Tutsi which would create another war or even genocide. Wake the hell up.

Al Khawarij apologist!.

 

[TekNiKo]

Hawadle: They became a big political weight in Gobolada dhexe in post-Macawisley era they were the first to honour Hassan Sheikh in the international arena. Look at Hassan Sheikhs' companions in Baidoa like Waare and Sanbaloolshe even Godah is an ally he was promised some thing like ambassador that suits him bc he is ill he wants to ensure that the whole clan is on his side and they will lead Hirshabelle in his second year.

Gaaljecel: Their towns are now forgotten outside of Baledweyne and the first thing they will enjoy will be to get services and development that was concentrated on the "Eastern Hiiraan"


Marehan: Yes, the current security situation in JL is not in their favour but after two years their situation will change and they may take advantage of filling the security vacuum in there. The liberation of JL will automatically lead to the end of the article 51 that gives any country the right to make buffer zones in their neighbouring countries as some sort of self-defense this is the Article Kenya and Turkey use for Somalia and Syria.

Cawlyahan OG: After the liberation of Jubada dhexe they will demand a social contract to rule their period as in PL atleast OG will be like HG subclans in Galmudug.

SHIIKHAAL in Jubada dhexe: Lugadheere will be in JILIB mukulaal minankeeda joogta THE RETURN OF AAKHIROMOOG!

Murusade: They will have their first regional influence over a decade outside the capital and the power will spread outside of HG it is possible the parliament to be moved to Ceelbuur. Will likely enter Alliance with Duduble( Mataanaha ceelbuur coalition founded by MP Dhageey and MP Dhagdheer)

WACEYSLE Abgaal: It will be a symbolic victory for Hassan Sheikh who is descended from them and they will enjoy a highway that connects them to Mogadishu

D&M: Leesaan(roobow)subclan) HADAAMO(Adan madobe subclan) EELAAY(Jawaari subclan), BOQOL HORE(Fargeeti Subclan).ASHARAAF(SAKIIN SUBCLAN)

Current sitting clan Xariin (Laftagareen)

Yes Marehan benefit big time we hope the HAG gaze their eyes upon their Jubbaland friends kolay MX are ready to reach a deal for a fair state. We are prepared to give you guys Turdho and Salagle districts and guarantee Saransoor rights. Beesha HAG and Beesha KG need more representation imo. Gaaljecel Samoow iyo Sheekhaal, Hintirre heck even some hiiraab live in Turdho! Kismayo shall be the greatest crown jewel of Sade with other tribes living in an egalitarian state unlike the dictatorship of one tribe right now!

 

[The Midlands]

Yes Marehan benefit big time we hope the HAG gaze their eyes upon their Jubbaland friends kolay MX are ready to reach a deal for a fair state. We are prepared to give you guys Turdho and Salagle districts and guarantee Saransoor rights. Beesha HAG and Beesha KG need more representation imo. Gaaljecel Samoow iyo Sheekhaal, Hintirre heck even some hiiraab live in Turdho! Kismayo shall be the greatest crown jewel of Sade with other tribes living in an egalitarian state unlike the dictatorship of one tribe right now!

im no more part of HAG sxb talk to them in their threads
This is analysis not based on my personal feelings. KG will be finished in 6 months there will be coastal operation similar to Harardhere. I revealed deploying special forces in hobyo front they included it PSF so my xogo are strong. They r planning baraawe jilib operation in 6 months. AMISOM will go including KDF after two years and Kenya will not be able to use article 51 of UN charter after the liberation. AL SHABAAB WILL NOT EXIST IN TWO YEARS THIS WILL OPEN TO MX A POLITICAL OPPORTUNITY.


Look my special forces xog in hobyo front then we saw Danab and psf

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/the-largest-military-operation-in-south-of-galmudug-from-all-directions-including-the-landing-of-troops-from-the-coast-of-harardheere.140512/#post-3470927

 

[SPMLegend]

Yes Marehan benefit big time we hope the HAG gaze their eyes upon their Jubbaland friends kolay MX are ready to reach a deal for a fair state. We are prepared to give you guys Turdho and Salagle districts and guarantee Saransoor rights. Beesha HAG and Beesha KG need more representation imo. Gaaljecel Samoow iyo Sheekhaal, Hintirre heck even some hiiraab live in Turdho! Kismayo shall be the greatest crown jewel of Sade with other tribes living in an egalitarian state unlike the dictatorship of one tribe right now!

Look at this beg

Salagle is an Ogaden district
Kismaayo is Ogaden
Accept the reality

 

[Bowda-dheer]

Marehan: Yes, the current security situation in JL is not in their favour but after two years their situation will change and they may take advantage of filling the security vacuum in there. The liberation of JL will automatically lead to the end of the article 51 that gives any country the right to make buffer zones in their neighbouring countries as some sort of self-defense this is the Article Kenya and Turkey use for Somalia and Syria.

Filling security vacuum in Gedo? Or you mean a return to the walalaha ceyr alliance? AKA free sadaqo Otherwise don’t see Marehan filing the security vacuum in the two jubas unless there’s a miracle like the 90s where OGs were divided into jees and gabyow.

 

[Bowda-dheer]

T

Look at this beg

Salagle is an Ogaden district
Kismaayo is Ogaden
Accept the reality

Tekniko is from galgadud he doesn’t know degaanka apart from controlling kismaayo port with walalaha ceyr in the late 90s to 2000s.

 

[SPMLegend]

Filling security vacuum in Gedo? Or you mean a return to the walalaha ceyr alliance? AKA free sadaqo Otherwise don’t see Marehan filing the security vacuum in the two jubas unless there’s a miracle like the 90s where OGs were divided into jees and gabyow.

Every month their irreverent “Gedo administration” is taken to Doolow Ado Ethiopia for Heshiis because they can’t seem to get along in the region.

They need Ethiopian troops holding their hands otherwise they would be killing each-other in Beledxaawo & Luuq as always.

 

[SPMLegend]

The area in Jilib that borders Bu’aale & Afmadow is inhabited much more than the areas towards Baraawe & lower Shabelle.

Ogaden’s influence in the district is located within the reddish pink line.

There’s barely any villages located within the border districts of Sablaale & Baraawe. Majority of the villages are In-fact towards Lower Juba & Bu’aale

 

[Bowda-dheer]

Every month their irreverent “Gedo administration” is taken to Doolow Ado Ethiopia for Heshiis because they can’t seem to get along in the region.

They need Ethiopian troops holding their hands otherwise they would be killing each-other in Beledxaawo & Luuq as always.

Gedo needs outside help to function as a gobol at least since the 90s with presence of Ethiopia. Only gobol to have foreign troops before amisom.

The area in Jilib that borders Bu’aale & Afmadow is inhabited much more than the areas towards Baraawe & lower Shabelle.

Ogaden’s influence in the district is located within the reddish pink line.

There’s barely any villages located within the border districts of Sablaale & Baraawe. Majority of the villages are In-fact towards Lower Juba & Bu’aale

View attachment 249539View attachment 249540

because north of jilib is dhul daaqsiin for the tuni herders that’s why the shekhaal in jilib had hard time being hunted by tuni during the usc offensive.


watch the usc interview @13:39 and how the Hawiye allied shekhaal got their xoolo stolen by the tuni. This is why I say we should arm the tuni as soon as we liberate jubooyinka they’re massive and live north of barawe all the way to gobweyn and jilib.

 

[warside]

Definitely the flora clan will not benefit in the short term, I heard Shabaabs are killing them by the thousands, so they can escape aerial targeting.

 

[The Midlands]

Filling security vacuum in Gedo? Or you mean a return to the walalaha ceyr alliance? AKA free sadaqo Otherwise don’t see Marehan filing the security vacuum in the two jubas unless there’s a miracle like the 90s where OGs were divided into jees and gabyow.

These tweets are what they call security vacuum فراغ امنى
I don't think this situation will continue in the next year wich will open opprtunity for Mx. Im not talking about qabiil wars they can be big card for the federal Govt if the relationship goes bad with Kenya in post-liberation. Syrian Govt is with the Syrian kurdish rojava who are armed opposition just bc of Turkey.

 

[The Midlands]

..

 

[Rationale]

Definitely the flora clan will not benefit in the short term, I heard Shabaabs are killing them by the thousands, so they can escape aerial targeting.
View attachment 249551View attachment 249554

Do you know what triggers me more? These fuc*ers are doing this for nought. Vehicles can't be camouflaged these days with simple tricks like that. The Americans will track all vehicles that aren't camouflaged with screens that can disrupt advanced sensors using electromagnetic waves. Unless the khwaarijs find deep caves they need SAAB's BARRACUDA ULCAS to hide from the Americans.

Military operations require flexible camouflage that can be used on many different objects while delivering unrelenting protection against advanced sensors.

Barracuda ULCAS | Saab

Military operations often require flexible camouflage that can be used on many different objects while delivering unrelenting protection against advanced sensors.

www.saab.com

 

[Prince of HS]

Do you know what triggers me more? These fuc*ers are doing this for nought. Vehicles can't be camouflaged these days with simple tricks like that. The Americans will track all vehicles that aren't camouflaged with screens that can disrupt advanced sensors using electromagnetic waves. Unless the khwaarijs find deep caves they need SAAB's BARRACUDA ULCAS to hide from the Americans.

View attachment 249566

Shabaab aren’t as Lucky compared to the taliban when it comes to hiding from US drones. There are barely any deep caves in south Somalia that can hide them from the US drone technology like the mountainous terrains of Afganistan

 

[Bowda-dheer]

These tweets are what they call security vacuum فراغ امنى
I don't think this situation will continue in the next year wich will open opprtunity for Mx. Im not talking about qabiil wars they can be big card for the federal Govt if the relationship goes bad with Kenya in post-liberation. Syrian Govt is with the Syrian kurdish rojava who are armed opposition just bc of Turkey.

Oh makes sense but it will just be gedo and as usual it will be divided along with some going to federal government and some staying with jubaland admin. Gedo will always be divided right now it’s more important to jubaland because there is shabab in middle juba. once middle juba comes under jubaland gedo will be a third wheeler and less important than capital middle juba and port driven lower juba.

 

[Ali20333]

Look at this beg

Salagle is an Ogaden district
Kismaayo is Ogaden
Accept the reality

Kismaayo is Harti city we builded
Ogaden and marexeen are guest in the city.

General Morgan

 

[JigjigaKismaayo]

Filling security vacuum in Gedo? Or you mean a return to the walalaha ceyr alliance? AKA free sadaqo Otherwise don’t see Marehan filing the security vacuum in the two jubas unless there’s a miracle like the 90s where OGs were divided into jees and gabyow.

even if the walalaha galgadud project is brought out of its grave, this time we are prepared.
The situation in JL is unlikely to chnage. The best they will get is what they currently have.

 

[TekNiKo]

Look at this beg

Salagle is an Ogaden district
Kismaayo is Ogaden
Accept the reality

You are a minority from Kebridahare, you are
lucky your stay in Afmadow is allowed