States rarely give away autonomy by their own volition. In normal countries a scenario like this would have led to a war between the dissident states and the Federal Government, just like it did in the states. But Somalia might avoid it since both parties are reliant on the IC.
We will soon resemble a real federal country. Too bad Puntland chooses to isolate itself.
We are becoming a real state but we unfortunately still reliant on the IC putting pressure on PL to get us past the last hurdle.
Like @Rationale says most other countries would enforce their will on PL through military force but this is not an option for the FGS as it’s still very fragile and reliant on donors.
There’s no reason to think they’ll want to force him. Most of the IC defo benefit from having PL opposing a non-complaint FGS. HSM however has to force their hand. A successful Shabaab operation and then pivot slightly to China in post rebuild for a stronger hand. The post Shabaab fight for resources and contracts within Somalia will be massive.what makes you think the xalane mafia will force deni? everything looks like the xalane mafia will use deni as roadblock.
the question you need to ask yourself is. does the xalana mafia want to see a stable somalia and what are the motivations of the xalane mafia. And why are they forcing culusow to make deals where everyone is on board and happy why not vote and majority wins. wouldn't take make things easer?
There’s no reason to think they’ll want to force him. Most of the IC defo benefit from having PL opposing a non-complaint FGS. HSM however has to force their hand. A successful Shabaab operation and then pivot slightly to China in post rebuild for a stronger hand. The post Shabaab fight for resources and contracts within Somalia will be massive.
Currently HSM’s option is to block aid/projects but this isn’t a long term solution as PL is more self reliant than other states. It failed for Farmaajo as we saw. Deni’s election in a few months however means any attempt for a deal is point less. Even if HSM did everything to come to agreement with Deni it can be ripped up by whoever replaces him.
In the meantime HSM should play dumb till he can get the arms embargo lifted and IMF debt relief. Can’t risk a war against PL like in 2016 to bring them to the table
culusow was humiliated here man and it was the xalane mafia that done it to him the same xalane mafia culusow use to write letters to day and night complaining about farmaajo. culusow was forced to send a delegation and watch how deni will make impossible demands and culusow will be forced by xalane to accept it.
We will soon resemble a real federal country. Too bad Puntland chooses to isolate itself.
Does this sound like a man willing to waste his time with an expiring Deni? Howsha ha socoto!
We are becoming a real state but we unfortunately still reliant on the IC putting pressure on PL to get us past the last hurdle.
Like @Rationale says most other countries would enforce their will on PL through military force but this is not an option for the FGS as it’s still very fragile and reliant on donors.