Summary of the two-day meeting on national security architecture, federalism; federal and state-level elections in Baidoa

[XuseenS]

We will soon resemble a real federal country. Too bad Puntland chooses to isolate itself.

 

[Rationale]

We will soon resemble a real federal country. Too bad Puntland chooses to isolate itself.

States rarely give away autonomy by their own volition. In normal countries a scenario like this would have led to a war between the dissident states and the Federal Government, just like it did in the states. But Somalia might avoid it since both parties are reliant on the IC.

 

[bidenkulaha]

We are becoming a real state but we unfortunately still reliant on the IC putting pressure on PL to get us past the last hurdle.

Like @Rationale says most other countries would enforce their will on PL through military force but this is not an option for the FGS as it’s still very fragile and reliant on donors.

 

[cow]

We are becoming a real state but we unfortunately still reliant on the IC putting pressure on PL to get us past the last hurdle.

Like @Rationale says most other countries would enforce their will on PL through military force but this is not an option for the FGS as it’s still very fragile and reliant on donors.

what makes you think the xalane mafia will force deni? everything looks like the xalane mafia will use deni as roadblock.

the question you need to ask yourself is. does the xalana mafia want to see a stable somalia and what are the motivations of the xalane mafia. And why are they forcing culusow to make deals where everyone is on board and happy why not vote and majority wins. wouldn't take make things easer?

 

[bidenkulaha]

what makes you think the xalane mafia will force deni? everything looks like the xalane mafia will use deni as roadblock.

the question you need to ask yourself is. does the xalana mafia want to see a stable somalia and what are the motivations of the xalane mafia. And why are they forcing culusow to make deals where everyone is on board and happy why not vote and majority wins. wouldn't take make things easer?

There’s no reason to think they’ll want to force him. Most of the IC defo benefit from having PL opposing a non-complaint FGS. HSM however has to force their hand. A successful Shabaab operation and then pivot slightly to China in post rebuild for a stronger hand. The post Shabaab fight for resources and contracts within Somalia will be massive.

Currently HSM’s option is to block aid/projects but this isn’t a long term solution as PL is more self reliant than other states. It failed for Farmaajo as we saw. Deni’s election in a few months however means any attempt for a deal is point less. Even if HSM did everything to come to agreement with Deni it can be ripped up by whoever replaces him.

In the meantime HSM should play dumb till he can get the arms embargo lifted and IMF debt relief. Can’t risk a war against PL like in 2016 to bring them to the table

 

[cow]

There’s no reason to think they’ll want to force him. Most of the IC defo benefit from having PL opposing a non-complaint FGS. HSM however has to force their hand. A successful Shabaab operation and then pivot slightly to China in post rebuild for a stronger hand. The post Shabaab fight for resources and contracts within Somalia will be massive.

Currently HSM’s option is to block aid/projects but this isn’t a long term solution as PL is more self reliant than other states. It failed for Farmaajo as we saw. Deni’s election in a few months however means any attempt for a deal is point less. Even if HSM did everything to come to agreement with Deni it can be ripped up by whoever replaces him.

In the meantime HSM should play dumb till he can get the arms embargo lifted and IMF debt relief. Can’t risk a war against PL like in 2016 to bring them to the table

All the laws passed by SFG regarding mahad salad and NISA the FMS rejected which makes it null and void outside of xamar. so it is not just puntland that opposes culusow.

2nd point is they only agreed on finances. only jubbaland has a port and madoobe signed it over to UAE. rest of the FMS don't have anything so it is basically a nothing agreement. i also doubt deni cares about aid projects. he will be paid to be openly opposed to culusow while others are paid to secretly oppose culusow.

culusow was humiliated here man and it was the xalane mafia that done it to him the same xalane mafia culusow use to write letters to day and night complaining about farmaajo. culusow was forced to send a delegation and watch how deni will make impossible demands and culusow will be forced by xalane to accept it.

 

[bidenkulaha]

culusow was humiliated here man and it was the xalane mafia that done it to him the same xalane mafia culusow use to write letters to day and night complaining about farmaajo. culusow was forced to send a delegation and watch how deni will make impossible demands and culusow will be forced by xalane to accept it.

Does this sound like a man willing to waste his time with an expiring Deni? Howsha ha socoto!

 

[FBIsomalia]

We will soon resemble a real federal country. Too bad Puntland chooses to isolate itself.

Isolation lool.

 

[cow]

Does this sound like a man willing to waste his time with an expiring Deni? Howsha ha socoto!

You haven't understood a single thing I said if you think this is about deni.

 

[Mr. Wabrii]

We are becoming a real state but we unfortunately still reliant on the IC putting pressure on PL to get us past the last hurdle.

Like @Rationale says most other countries would enforce their will on PL through military force but this is not an option for the FGS as it’s still very fragile and reliant on donors.

Well you saw what happened in Ethiopia, The Tigray People rejected the President and FGS an then a war happened.

The FGS doesn't need to enforce nothing on PL, PL needs to be brought to the table through diplomatic negotiation which is why QQ and others will be sent.

PL should make their stance clear, one day they Claim they are part of Somalia and Point Fingers at SL, then turn around and act like SL when it comes to a Power Sharing Government.

The FGS should not allow any Federal Member State to act outside the guidelines.

Puntland and MJ are confusing. They do awrkacsi for dhulos but have no intention to help their fellow harti brothers. They want PM and are upset with HSM but isnt Ogaden your fellow Brothers?

PL know that with a New Federal System it would be hard to miss use public funding. Accountability will come into play.

If HSM wanted to make PL real Salty he would go to Bosaso, We all know all you need is to get permission from diyano family, not garowe.