Somali's GDP per Capita is false

[Barkhadle1520]

At first I thought even 5k sounded ridculous because I was thinking of vietnam and indonesia which are Also around there. But then j realizes that 5k would only gives us a gdp of 90 billion which is way smaller than Vietnam or Thailand's gdp which is in the several hundred billions range. If we take kenya as the comparison which has a similar total gdp and then add in the fact that Kenya's wealth is very much concentrated whereas somalia's is much more equally istributed then you realize a 5k gdp per capita isnt unrealistic at all.

By the way I forgot to say but 90b$ is the 2018 data and Kenya was also around 90B$ at that time, if you add yearly GDP growth % which is between 3-4% every year until 2025, you get around 101B$ GDP with 5800$ GDP per capita.

Can't wait until this becomes official, economy nerds will have a hard time understanding how it's possible lol

 

[Midas]

By the way I forgot to say but 90b$ is the 2018 data and Kenya was also around 90B$ at that time, if you add yearly GDP growth % which is between 3-4% every year until 2025, you get around 101B$ GDP with 5800$ GDP per capita.

Can't wait until this becomes official, economy nerds will have a hard time understanding how it's possible lol

I think a lot of it comes from rhe fact that somali's undeveloped public sector means that a lot of public sector goods (like roads and education) are way behind what would be normal for our gdp per capita level. The lack of foreign investment also means that the tech transfers and development of certain more high-tevh industries never happened.

 

[Midas]

I think a lot of it comes from rhe fact that somali's undeveloped public sector means that a lot of public sector goods (like roads and education) are way behind what would be normal for our gdp per capita level. The lack of foreign investment also means that the tech transfers and development of certain more high-tevh industries never happened.

While the avg quality of education in somalia is probably higher due to children being educated in their native language. 30-40 of children are still not enrolled in schools. There also don't seemed to be standardized somali textbooks at all

We have about 21 thousand km's in total road compared to kenyas 180 thousand Km's

This is where the oil money would change everything. Since these kinds of public goods require billions in investment. The oil money would allows us to not take billions in debt that countries in africa did to invest in education and public infrastructure.

 

[bobby_hill-Punt]

Either the geel

This is making me miss Hargeysa I miss climbing five billion hills to explore

Abayo are you short ?

 

[zeilaprime]

There are two choices: 1) the stats that have been gathered by Somalis working for the UN, NGOs, the Somali government, African Union are reliable and factual or 2) there is a conspiracy against the failed state and Somalia is actually much richer than the stats show. Ill take option one.

 

[Idilinaa]

There are two choices: 1) the stats that have been gathered by Somalis working for the UN, NGOs, the Somali government, African Union are reliable and factual or 2) there is a conspiracy against the failed state and Somalia is actually much richer than the stats show. Ill take option one.

I don’t think there’s any deliberate conspiracy by the UN or World Bank.

Even the government and researchers openly acknowledge that they struggle to track the informal sector , which makes up about 80–90% of all economic activity or mobile money usage, which is how over 90% of the population conducts transactions, pays for services, and essentially manages their finances.


What they should do, as I’ve mentioned before, is rebase the economy , like many other countries have , and begin integrating data from mobile money platforms and the informal sector into their official estimates.

 

[Idilinaa]

While the avg quality of education in somalia is probably higher due to children being educated in their native language. 30-40 of children are still not enrolled in schools. There also don't seemed to be standardized somali textbooks at all

We have about 21 thousand km's in total road compared to kenyas 180 thousand Km's

This is where the oil money would change everything. Since these kinds of public goods require billions in investment. The oil money would allows us to not take billions in debt that countries in africa did to invest in education and public infrastructure.

I think a lot of it comes from rhe fact that somali's undeveloped public sector means that a lot of public sector goods (like roads and education) are way behind what would be normal for our gdp per capita level. The lack of foreign investment also means that the tech transfers and development of certain more high-tevh industries never happened.

They’ve been building a lot of new roads and highways over the past few years, so that trend is definitely continuing.

At this point, I think many have started to recognize the billions circulating within the economy, and there’s a clear push to accelerate development through Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models.

To me, it’s pretty obvious that the private sector will play a key role in strengthening the public sector. That’s where the real long-term sustainability lies.

 

[Idilinaa]

At first I thought even 5k sounded ridculous because I was thinking of vietnam and indonesia which are Also around there. But then j realizes that 5k would only gives us a gdp of 90 billion which is way smaller than Vietnam or Thailand's gdp which is in the several hundred billions range. If we take kenya as the comparison which has a similar total gdp and then add in the fact that Kenya's wealth is very much concentrated whereas somalia's is much more equally istributed then you realize a 5k gdp per capita isnt unrealistic at all.

Vietnam and Thailand have populations of around 71 to 100 million, and Kenya’s is about 55 million. If you go by GDP per capita, you’d assume Kenya is at around $1K, Vietnam at $5K, and Thailand at $7K.


But these are highly unequal societies. A large share of their GDP is concentrated in the hands of a small elite, meaning the average person earns far less than what the headline per capita figure suggests. A small group tends to monopolize most of that $100–500 billion GDP.


For Somalia, however, the situation is quite different. That same $100 billion or $5–6K (PPP) per capita is arguably more meaningful because wealth and ownership are more evenly distributed. Money circulates and is reinvested locally, rather than being hoarded or extracted by a small class.


Also, the way we’re estimating Somalia’s economic activity , by looking at actual earnings, prices, salaries, living costs, mobile money data, transaction volumes, etc. , gives a much more accurate and grounded picture. It reflects the real economy, not just abstract macro indicators.

 

[iley]

Same in Hargeisa, take a look at the Hargeisa suburbs, exact same style of cheap middle class homes can be observed all over the landscape
View attachment 363162

Average residential neighborhood in Hargeisa

View attachment 363163

Another beautiful exemple of Hargeisa

They have these residential estates near xamar too with darusalam. I visited again last year and they expanded quite a bit

 

[Idilinaa]

Vietnam and Thailand have populations of around 71 to 100 million, and Kenya’s is about 55 million. If you go by GDP per capita, you’d assume Kenya is at around $1K, Vietnam at $5K, and Thailand at $7K.


But these are highly unequal societies. A large share of their GDP is concentrated in the hands of a small elite, meaning the average person earns far less than what the headline per capita figure suggests. A small group tends to monopolize most of that $100–500 billion GDP.


For Somalia, however, the situation is quite different. That same $100 billion or $5–6K (PPP) per capita is arguably more meaningful because wealth and ownership are more evenly distributed. Money circulates and is reinvested locally, rather than being hoarded or extracted by a small class.


Also, the way we’re estimating Somalia’s economic activity , by looking at actual earnings, prices, salaries, living costs, mobile money data, transaction volumes, etc. , gives a much more accurate and grounded picture. It reflects the real economy, not just abstract macro indicators.

Go to the part where she talks about a better metric at @11:34

She shows a chart that help explain how the poorest countries are often the most unequal.

 

[balanbalis]

Abayo are you short ?

No Hargeisa is hilly