Somali's GDP per Capita is false

[Barkhadle1520]

Does anyone really believe this ?

According to these stats the average Somali is poorer than Liberians, Sierra Leoneans, Gambians, Chadians and lives with just 64$ a day which literally any Somali knows is just impossible, let me give a few examples :

This video below showcases the average cost of living in Somalia, this is about Hargeisa but it's pretty much the same everywhere.


According to this video the cost of living for a whole family in Hargeisa 2021 :

- Water: $5.35
- Electricity: $18.65
- Food: $41.00
- Internet: $8.00

So monthly expenses for a couple with a single kid in Hargeisa is around 315$ a month.

I asked Chatgpt if it is possible for every family to survive with that GDP per capita and those monthly expenses.

It stated that, it is not possible a country to have a GDP per capita of $771 per year, or $64 per month, while basic monthly expenses for a family start at $316.

To put it into perspective, even if you have 5 people working in the household making 64$/month, that barely scratches the cost of living.

And that's just basic necessities. In the video the guy shows how a bag of snacks/groceries is 5$, and the bus ride to go grab them was 4$. It is impossible for the average Somali to live on 64$ and still fill the many thriving fast-foods and restaurants in the cities. He also showed how he spent around 20$ to go out with his daughter and his wife to buy ice cream at Aden nineteen, a very popular ice cream shop very popular and known in Mogadishu and Hargeisa (went there)

Such a shop couldn't be as successful if everyone wasn't buying, they have multiple shops in Hargeisa went to two of them

Here this lady shows the cost of some essential dairy items at an average corner store in Hargeisa, a single can of powder milk is 18$ which would be impossible if the GDP per capita was 64$ a month.


In the part two she shows how a bag of rice (5kgs) is 7-8$, so a family of 3 would spend a minimum of 21-25$ a month on rice, seeing how most Somali parents have at least two or three children, this figure could rise to 30$ which is roughly half of the monthly GDP per capita. She shows how a box of spaghetti pasta that is a common somali dish cost 11$ per box which is 33$ a month, again half the monthly GDP of 64$.

I've been thinking about this for a while and just this morning I realized that if our per capita was truly 64$/month, you would see, tons of slums filled with poor people all over our cities. After some research and recalling my personal experience in Hargeisa I realized that most people literately live in Middle class homes, in every city of Somalia, I could not find a single slum like in Nairobi, Addis Ababa or even Lagos, reflecting an poverty striken population and a very low GDP per Capita.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Here is Borama for example, the landscape is dominated my the same style of Middle class housing

These exact same style of homes are being built in mass in Garowe showing a rising demand

This can especially be seen in with drone view of Garowe, just like Borama, the landscape is dominated by these homes although the infrastructure and especially the roads aren't good at all, something which is common in every Somali city. Go to 0:41 in the video.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Same in Hargeisa, take a look at the Hargeisa suburbs, exact same style of cheap middle class homes can be observed all over the landscape

Average residential neighborhood in Hargeisa

Another beautiful exemple of Hargeisa

 

[balanbalis]

Either the geel

Same in Hargeisa, take a look at the Hargeisa suburbs, exact same style of cheap middle class homes can be observed all over the landscape
View attachment 363162

Average residential neighborhood in Hargeisa

View attachment 363163

Another beautiful exemple of Hargeisa

This is making me miss Hargeysa I miss climbing five billion hills to explore

 

[Barkhadle1520]

This is a viral picture of Mogadishu suburbs on X, Africans were shocked at how well the neighborhoods were laid out and the green spaces, trees and homes.

https://x.com/NdunguMartins/status/1733227642843767009

Mogadishu is an especially interesting case as many high rise apartments are being built, in one documentary (pretty sure it was al jazeera) a guy who built one of these high rises was interviewed and he claimed before the construction was even finished nearly all the building was reserved which shows how big is the demand for middle class housing.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

These style of homes are also common in small towns like Beledweyne or Bulcad

https://x.com/MogadishuMade/status/1920152926082801959

 

[Barkhadle1520]

And the materials for all of these homes are being manufactured in Somalia as well, in this video at the first few seconds it is said that to build cheaper homes real estate investors now buy concrete from new local factories instead of importing more expensive materials. @Idilinaa posted some of these new factories.

At 0:45, the CEO of a real estate company in SL says the cost of homes has been reduced by 30% by buying locally manufactured materials

 

[Barkhadle1520]

The rapid rise the Middle class in Somalia is undeniable, this Arab guy who lives in Mogadishu even noticed it.


3:52 "Now, it may surprise some of you, but there is legitimate quite big and growing middle-class here [in Somalia], there are people who have extra-money that they want to spend on their week-ends and do fun things with their family.."

4:08 He gives an example saying that on Eid 2024 he went to Daruslam garden and there were many attraction and things to do/buy, and he saw thousands of people spending money to enter the park and buy many things there, he claims in that single day millions have been spent, a population which lives on 64$ a month could never afford that.

Throughout the video he says that Somalis are queing up in new shops paying extra for new modern premium quality services and trades, so there's a real purchasing power. This can seen by the thriving shops and businesses all over Somalia.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

This afternoon I also asked Chatgpt what would be the GDP per capita needed to survive with 316$/month of basic necessities.

316 x 12 = 3,792$ GDP per capita

But since most Somalis also buy various other consumer products and spend money on other things throughout the month, this number is still not enough.

So I asked Chatgpt; what if at least half the population can afford secondary expenses.

So if we add 150-200$ worth of secondary expenses, the income should be between 466-516$/month.

So the required GDP per capita would be around 5000$

Interesting anecdote: I asked my parents how people can afford the homes I showed in this thread. They told me how many newly married couples would live with their parents the first few years and spend as little as they could so to make at least 10k$ a year, which after a few years becomes enough to buy land, or build a home on already owned land.

It also looks like the $5000 GDP per capita figure of @Idilinaa was spot on.

 

[Idilinaa]

Excellent thread.

I’ve been saying this for some time now, but it really started to make sense after I came across some of @Three Moon's posts. That’s when I began connecting the dots myself and started noticing so many contradictions.

The idea that Somalis in Somalia survive on $1 a day or similar misleading stats like 700$ GDP , just doesn’t hold up.
How would businesses, services, or the private sector even function if people genuinely couldn't afford to buy or pay for anything?

If people were really that poor, we’d be seeing visible signs of desperation. I could go on and on, but you’ve already pointed this out extremely well.

I was actually planning to read and respond to something like this that was sent to me later today after finishing a few chores , but you guys have already taken it further, with more examples and clear demonstrations.

 

[Riftvalley]

The rapid rise the Middle class in Somalia is undeniable, this Arab guy who lives in Mogadishu even noticed it.


3:52 "Now, it may surprise some of you, but there is legitimate quite big and growing middle-class here [in Somalia], there are people who have extra-money that they want to spend on their week-ends and do fun things with their family.."

4:08 He gives an example saying that on Eid 2024 he went to Daruslam garden and there were many attraction and things to do/buy, and he saw thousands of people spending money to enter the park and buy many things there, he claims in that single day millions have been spent, a population which lives on 64$ a month could never afford that.

Throughout the video he says that Somalis are queing up in new shops paying extra for new modern premium quality services and trades, so there's a real purchasing power. This can seen by the thriving shops and businesses all over Somalia.

Not Arab, He’s an English convert gentleman married to a Somali sister.