Somalis Come In. Density Rates Of Cities

[DR OSMAN]

How many people would live in Mogadishu in that 1 SQ KM. Surely we can send a team from PL and JL as observers for such a small 'sample' rate that can be done in a few hours. Heck if you don't want to do 1 area sq KM, then we can reduce it too 100 by 100 meter like this land area, which is literally a 'football oval'

Thru that small sample rate we can reach an accurate conclusion about the 'total area sq density' mogadishu which is 90 SQ KM. But we need data for the first 1 area sq km to reach a final number for the total area sq.

Infact if we just had data anywhere like 100 by 100 meter we cud extrapolate density data for 1 area sq km and infer what the total area sq km population is. I live in sydney and that has density ratio of 1000 people in the CBD area so maybe mogadishu has 'hot spots' like that but not uniformly across the city it won't.

The density rates I am reading are ridiculous 30,000 people in each sq km with no 'sample data' of course, yet i don't see that type of sydney cbd population jam or manhattan population jam in mogadishu even in 'bakaraha'. Wallahi I wud be suprised if it has 1000 density rate per sq km anywhere in the city. Bosaso is a different story and truly has highest density in Somalia, wayba muuqata densitykisa, it has that manhattan effect, but not mogadishu at all. You see the cars-people are very spacious indeed and same with hargeisa, so they will need to accept a far lesser density count for their cities

 

[DR OSMAN]

Bosaso is the only unique place I saw that shows 'density' symptoms which is small area of land and overpopulated, it's not sprawling city and has the manhattan effect written all over it. But Mog/hargeisa have the 'sprawling' effect written over it meaning it 'spread out' but less people in each area sq of their spreading and it reflects very much when you walk around there, there is no way there is 20,000 people in 1 area sq of mogadishu.

Please begin sampling each home for household numbers and then divide it to get the true density average over 100 by 100 meters. For example if you get a variation in household numbers simply divide it over the number houses to get the density average. We can take this data and compute it over 1 area sq then and finally 90 SQ KM. I don't see any density difference between Mogadishu and any other city in Somalia barr 'Bosaso'

You know me the doctor not satisfied untill pure science is applied, since maths is the language of the world, it's my quran

 

[DR OSMAN]

Heck Somalis if u surely can't be that damn lazy to 100 by 100 sq meter which is literally 5 homes assuming 20 by 20 dimension per property? any somali person can do it. 5 homes and square it off by 100 meters by 100 meters, we got DATA now

 

[DR OSMAN]

20,000 ppl per sq km would mean u would need to see 2000 people within 100 by 100 meter everywhere u go in mogadishu, are u telling me u encounter 2000 people for every 5 properties you pass by in mogadishu? mind u those properties are not 'dabaqs' like bosaso which is dabaq heaven due to the manhattan effect on it, it's all pure residential 20 by 20 property dimensions that has sprawled out. There is no way that sort of property size and area can hold 2000 people, it defies belief kkkkk 2000 people in an area of 5 properties zone.

I would say it's around somewhere 50 ppl per 100 by 100 meter density. That's more rational. Then it wud be 5000 people in 1 area sq not 30,000 like they claim. This wud give mogadishu a total population of 450k not including the camps. I can't imagine more then 5000 ppl in an area sq except some 'hot spots' of course like the bakaraha which does have that manhattan effect and is visible but the rest of the city wud be no more then that at 5000 per area sq km. I wud only adjust the bakaraha with those higher densities.

Lets send a PL/JL team into mogadishu to verify it's population and they can send one to ours to see how we estimated our nomadic population or farming population and cities. Bosaso has bakaraha density written all over it since it's purely a city of business people only

 

[DR OSMAN]

They are saying there is 6 people in every home of mogadishu which is statistical blunder. As their cannot be that sort of conformity in each home, their has to be variation at all times and working out the 'lowest' number in a house and the 'highest' number in a house and reaching an average. Not just saying 6 people in each home x 5 homes is 30 for 100 by 100 meter square and concluding there is 30,000 people in each area sq km of mogadishu when nobody sees 30,000 people in 1 area sq, we see a far 'different' picture emerging where we see less then 5000

 

[DR OSMAN]

Even 5000 is too much for Mogadishu per 1 area sq, I know what sydney cbd feels like at 1000 rate and I dont see that type of people movement let alone manhattan type of density which is 30000, there is no-way mogadishu has 30000 people whoever worked that out is assuming 6 people in each home and that's not the case at all across every home. I wouldn't accept anything above 1 million for mogadishu with 5000 people in 1 sq km outside bakaraha with higher people per km

 

[DR OSMAN]

Sydney area sq is 12,000 SQ KM. It doesn't mean much a city is 'sprawled' out, it just means it's on bigger land space, the density of each sq kilometer is calculated and that's why Sydney is only 5 million cause there is less people in each area sq besides the CBD with a high of 1000 ppl per sq, the rest is 430 people per sq kilometer and that is about right cause you won't see 30000 people everywhere u go in sydney cause it's spacious and sprawled out it's people so it's not contained.

 

[DR OSMAN]

To be fair the urban density ratio has to be less due to 'higher' cost of living to villages/nomadic areas. The urban effect must be applied to any ratio for the city of Mogadishu. I wud say in my honest opinion 3 per household is better average since some are 6 per household while others are 1 per household and that variation will exist across the city from a low of 1 to 6 and a possisble 3 average per household is more reasonable. I wud adjust nomadic areas to 6 per household while farming areas to 8 per household as their not equal in my opinion either. So their is different density ratios across the nation.

But what isn't in dispute in my view is 100 by 100 meters should have only 5 homes assuming a housing dimension of 20 by 20 sq meter uniformly across the city which isn't the case obviously as it fluctuates in housing dimension also.

So the number of houses shouldn't exceed 5000 per sq km, the density ratio should be around 3 per household to account for the variation from 6 per household to 1 per household across the city. So their should be around 450,000 homes in mogadishu in the 90 area sq that's if u assume '20 by 20 dimension uniform rule' which isn't the case at all and u wud need to adjust housing dimension average between big-medium-small plots to work out a more realistic housing dimension also.

But the population should be around 3 per household x 5 homes in 100 by 100 meter area at a rate of 15 people and 5 homes is far more reasonable to swallow.

So in 1 area sq u wud assume, 15 x 1000 sq meters= 15000 people per one sq km. 15000 x 90 area sq is 1.3 million and that is being 'very' generous as u assume all housing dimensions are the same and density ratios are the same across the city which it isn't as some areas r more dense then others.

So even density 'ratio' needs to be worked per area to give a 'average density' rate cause that 90 sq km isn't all 15000 people, some places it's low 5000 and some places high 15000 like bakaraha, so we need another averaging formula for least dense areas of mogadishu and high dense areas and coming to a lesser number then 15000, I wud say 10000 is more realistic. 10,000 x 90 sq km is 900,000. So in my eyes mogadishu is low 900k or high of 1.3 million depending on what density ratio is agreed too such as 3 per household or less or more depending on some 'area sq' in mogadishu is only high of 15000 people like bakaraha not other 'area' sqs cud be as low as 5000 people and this needs accounting for.

Majerten are brutal and will not accept anything less then mathamatics since we want a genuine population based democracy

 

[DR OSMAN]

It's interesting mathamatics must not be somali thing, u post a topic on 'conspiracies' such as 'wht is coalition of farmajo n hag' doing they run in, showing it's still not a society that has fully embraced science but still prefers 'hear-say, rumours, alex jones, dahir alasow' which is a big sign of 'low iq' as 'emotions n conspiracies' are more relatedable in the nation then actual real hard science topics. Conspiracies-Faith-Religion-Superstitions prevalent rates in Somalia is higher then developed nations their no question about that and why u see their economy is 50 million a month in urban areas, while other nations its 1 trillion, which is 1000 billion, or 10,000 million so it's 10,000 x higher then your monthly GDP

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Farjano-Walad come in mr GDP and explain why your nation has $50 million circulating around it or an urban pool of 3 million people a month?

Farjano iskama celin karo Liberal economist who are number crunching on sector to sector monthly earnings in nations, cause he know this is look of a liberal as he comes in with his 'stats' and 'graphs' to show visually the difference in output in his nation vs his highly unreligious nation.

This will make @Farjano-Walad respond like this at the facts n stats each year seeing no nominal growth beyond lows 1-3% on his 50 million while that same growth margin is happening in liberal economy with 10,000 50 million stacks each month circulating kkkkk. He only has 1 stack of 50 million, the liberal has 10,000 of them

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

This is Mogadishu from the ISS:
https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/146000/146868/iss062e039375_lrg.jpg

Mogadishu has a land area of 120 sq km and a population of 1.65 million as of the 2014 estimate. This gives it a population density of 13,700 people per sq km. This is double the density of Nairobi at ~7,000 people per sq km and Addis at 6,000 people per sq km. Somalia's cities are fairly dense because of the lack of planning for the past 30 years, and the weakness of the transport sector. Kismayo probably has a population density higher than 10,000 people per sq km.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Thegoodshepherd they are assuming thru terrible maths that every area sq has 30,000 people in it across 90 SQ KM. That would be 6 per household in every house in mogadishu, which in itself is statistically impossible that every house is 6 people when u will see an automatic varation just with 5 households let alone 5000 houses. That variation needs 'averaging'.

The other thing they didn't put into the equation is density per each area sq will not be uniformly the same across 90 sq kms, since the market areas will have higher density and residential areas a lower density similar to Sydney where it gets dense only in a 'few area sq km' of the CBD and then less dense in the suburbs. They didn't equate this at all. I expect to see variations over each area sq not a 'static' number of 30,000 across the board.

I will only give the market area a higher density score and low density score for the rest of mogadishu residential area with 3 per household averages not 6 per household average. As my assumption is 6 is the maximum in a home and 1 the lowest and a variation should exist between those highs n lows across an 'area sq' or even '100 by 100 meter' sample. So an average of 3 per household in residential areas is most likely.

So I would assume 85 SQ KM of Mogadishu residential areas to be roughly around 5000 per sq km over 85 sq km, and the other 5 SQ Km will be higher density ratios but not at 30,000 rate, but 12000 maximum.

So for mogadishu proper I wudn't accept anything above 85 SQ KM at a 5000 ppl density rate per km. 5000 x 85 sq km is 425k, and then I wud re-adjust 5 sq km market areas with higher density to 12000 people which is an extra 60k in that market type area and zone.

 

[DR OSMAN]

This is Mogadishu from the ISS:
https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/146000/146868/iss062e039375_lrg.jpg

Mogadishu has a land area of 120 sq km and a population of 1.65 million as of the 2014 estimate. This gives it a population density of 13,700 people per sq km. This is double the density of Nairobi at ~7,000 people per sq km and Addis at 6,000 people per sq km. Somalia's cities are fairly dense because of the lack of planning for the past 30 years, and the weakness of the transport sector. Kismayo probably has a population density higher than 10,000 people per sq km.

We need to agree first on the household population as it won't be statically uniform, we need an 'average' and the average can only be determined by how low a household is and how high it can be and the middle ground taken for an average between the two extreme points. This is estimation techniques are quite well known if a census isn't available. Plus we need to zone out the high density areas of mogadishu and low density areas and work out a 'score' of density ratio per 'area sq' and how much of mogadishu do we assign low density score and how much do u we assign a high density score.

I am not sure where u got that 120 SQ KM, I am going off the world bank map on 'land'. There is only 400 SQ km of urban land in all of Somalia and I am talking about Mogadish Urban center not the 'outside' towns.

There is only 70,000 SQ KM of 'farm land' and don't buy into this shit, it's all hawiyes/rahanwayn since their 'share' can be measured, as JL has 110,000 SQ Land mass and is the most fertile of all southern farm lands.Shabellaha doesn't even come close.

In-fact Somalia total farm lands are larger then Kenya total of 48,000 SQ KM.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

 

[DR OSMAN]

Besides @Thegoodshepherd the urban share in Somalia is very low anyways since 80% the economy is still rural in nomadic and farming areas. The farming areas have been impacted the most and shifted to 'camps' in the urban areas, their ratio to gdp is 20% now, that's 20% of labour pool that is sitting in camps which is quite shocking the shabab effect it has had on the economy. As the stats were fairly uniform 40% livestock 40% agriculture in the past accounting for 80% of the population and 20% urban.

Now the agriculture sector is down to 20% since the shabaab has come, indicating a huge population shift to the urban areas, adding 20% to the urban share even though economic activity hasn't warranted for 20% influx to occur as the 1.4 billion in services/industry is simply over-stretched now as it was intended for 20% population center of Somalia not 40%. A huge shift in people like that is not good for the economy at all, as it over-stretches limited resources in the urban area who haven't increased their production a bit for 30 years, it's actually been quite shockingly low that 20% of the population are only producing $50 million worth of activity a month, if u split that between them, u will see the huge dilemma, now add 20% ex farming camps, that's 40% sitting around what is essentially 50 million dollars a month



While @Farjano-Walad responds with nothing except 'qashin' when he sees the stats from the liberal economist and calculations and measurements urban and rural ratio and economic activity. The liberal is like this looking at his urban ghetto and primitive natural resources economy like all religious ppl are even amish people are skipped the industralization and technological age, liberals are like ive had enuff of these sky daddy cults

Cause he knows Farjano has nothing but quran and emotions not numbers and measurements following well defined GDP principles which Farjano thinks is a philosophy when it's grounded in fact kkkk he even thinks evolution is a philosophy when there is all the evidence that points to it making it a fact

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Thegoodshepherd it's good to see you bro. Let's catch up at Garowe and get number crunching from our own 'sampling' rates of Somalia so we can finally shift this nation away from clan communism towards a govt accountable to a constituency not a 'clan' since not all clans live in the nation or even district like many langaabs.

We need first an electoral college like america on rural/urban dynamics to work out where this population is. It's estimated that GDP is good indicator of population areas. It's assumed 40% are nomadic since they constitute 40% of the GDP even though some argue they have 'larger purchasing power to farmers' since livestock is more expensive then agricultural products.

You take the 'electricity' 'water' sample rate and measure each household 'usage' so we can baseline our estimations of as many 'reference' points to see how accurate it is. The more reference points we have the stronger the 'estimation' becomes.

I will deal with the 'area' sq measurements of 'pastures' and 'farm land' and 'urban city' to work out density ratios.

We will combine our findings to work out the true population of Somalia or at least the closest method outside of a census and even if we do 'census' they cannot 'flip' our findings by 'big margin' anyways it will fall within our 'marginal estimates' the actual specific count maybe different with a census but the marginal estimation brackets won't be.

Somalia won't be outside 15 million pool is pretty 'accurate' bracket thru GDP estimates and population settlements. We don't expect regional/clan measurements to be outside our marginal estimations either since were using some very strong 'data reference' points to calculate of such as water consumption levels, area sq measurements, density ratios, averaging formulas, etc.

The PL crew walking into Mogadishu and Hargeisa to end this shenanigans. The ogligarchs the clan nicknamed the whole damn GAME

While PL will be like, finally a nation based on reason and not clan emotions

Absame and Sade are like oh the hordes stand no chance anymore we try to sheild them from this outcome but they never listened, thinking we all darodist

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

@Thegoodshepherd they are assuming thru terrible maths that every area sq has 30,000 people in it across 90 SQ KM. That would be 6 per household in every house in mogadishu, which in itself is statistically impossible that every house is 6 people when u will see an automatic varation just with 5 households let alone 5000 houses. That variation needs 'averaging'.

The other thing they didn't put into the equation is density per each area sq will not be uniformly the same across 90 sq kms, since the market areas will have higher density and residential areas a lower density similar to Sydney where it gets dense only in a 'few area sq km' of the CBD and then less dense in the suburbs. They didn't equate this at all. I expect to see variations over each area sq not a 'static' number of 30,000 across the board.

I will only give the market area a higher density score and low density score for the rest of mogadishu residential area with 3 per household averages not 6 per household average. As my assumption is 6 is the maximum in a home and 1 the lowest and a variation should exist between those highs n lows across an 'area sq' or even '100 by 100 meter' sample. So an average of 3 per household in residential areas is most likely.

So I would assume 85 SQ KM of Mogadishu residential areas to be roughly around 5000 per sq km over 85 sq km, and the other 5 SQ Km will be higher density ratios but not at 30,000 rate, but 12000 maximum.

So for mogadishu proper I wudn't accept anything above 85 SQ KM at a 5000 ppl density rate per km. 5000 x 85 sq km is 425k, and then I wud re-adjust 5 sq km market areas with higher density to 12000 people which is an extra 60k in that market type area and zone.

I disagree with that. You are not taking into account the more than 500k idps in Mogadishu. The city’s population was 1.6 million in 2014, but I am sure it is well above 2 million now. Taking growth over the past 6 years into account, I would estimate Mogadishu’s population density at ~16,500 people per sq km. Mogadishu is an incredibly dense place population wise, mostly due to the number of idps there.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Thegoodshepherd so your saying 500k entered an area sq of 90 sq km and boosted up it's 1 sq km to a whopping uniform 5000 people added into every area sq of mogadishu? first of all where are these IDPS concentrated as only that 'area' will be squared for density map not the whole city.

U don't understand nothing is uniform in numbers, it's all variations constantly in numbers not static, there is no such thing as 'flat' number like u gave of 500k as what is measured is their settlement pattern and area sq and household population average as that will be big indicator of their population, where-as u threw out a figure from nowhere not even referencing GDP.

It's estimated only 20% left the farming areas by GDP drop indicators and farming areas only constituted 40% of the population nation wide when shabab wasn't around, which is 6 million. So they are now down to 4.8 million farmers nation wide from JL/HS/SW with 1.2 million displaced.

Now that drop of 20% is still not agreed on by all economists as it's considered considered on the 'high' spectrum and your saying 50% are located in Mogadishu?where-as a-lot of those people are in 'dadaab' also, especially the JL farmers while another portion is 'scattered' 10-50k ratio through the north and wouldn't constitute more then 100k that's combining all north-east or northwest portion of IDPS. 500k hamar, 100k north is 600k which is what lower estimate believe is true that only 10% fled the south not 20% as 'dadaab' has no indicator to have surged to those points. I've read other reports the true IDP number is only 350k.

But what I want to know is if you believe 1.4 million exists in mogadishu minus the IDP camps, then the total density u will need to accept is 15,000 people, which is 'half manhattan' density, have u been to manhattan sxb? do u think mogadishu is like that across the whole city? have u seen videos where it's only a few people standing around a given area and heaps of space? because I can measure 100 by 100 meter just with my own 'eyes' as it's not a big 'area' to work out. That is assuming 150 people every 100 meters. So in 10 meter by 10 meter space u saying 15 people that even less then 20 by 20 meter housing plot niyahow. Your arguing there is 15 people on housing plot.

I don't hold onto the notion mogadishu is dense beside bakaraha and believe it has no density difference to any other city in somalia, it has the same 'density' feel to it in 80% of the city bar a 'few hot areas' which again would need measuring because it still doesn't feel like manhattan level density. Come to Sydney CBD and u will know what it feels like just being in 1000 people per sq meter, meel la kala istago ma jiro, everyone is bumping into each other and I only see that density symptom in the market place which is 'small area sq' of mogadishu, no larger then 2 area sq so I will accept a higher density for that portion of the city but u need to re-align mogadishu 85% of the city to rationality cause it's not manhattan density niyahow over 90 area sq kkkkk oo aan meel la kala istagin jirin.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Karim is it me or do u find it hard to believe that 15 people exist in every 10 by 10 meter plot of mogadishu. Visually that is 10 by 10 metres. Multiply that land size over 90 sq meters and continously hold 15 people in it uniformly without any variation also.

Karim you are in mogadishu and u will see only the 'market' area is tight and then the rest of town fluctuates back to a lower density ratio, if @Thegoodshepherd said bakaraha fair enuff but bakaaraha isn't uniformly the whole city is what I am trying to tell him, the residential areas far less density then bakaraha. Next time u go to mog just stand near a villa somewhere and tell if u see 15 people in that villa space kkkk and remember u have to accept that 15 ppl in villa is representative of the whole city at the same time. Mind blowing shit wallahi who comes up with this stuff

 

[DR OSMAN]

3-4 ppl exist per 10 by 10 meter is macqul and that's if u account for variations between 1 ppl households and 6 people household and chooses moderate between the low n high numbers. 3000-4000 Per SQ KM is more provable if me and @Karim stand outside a house in mogadishu and see there isn't 15 people here to justify 15000 for 1 sq km, only 4 people are here kkkk. SQ Kilometer reports back one house taking up 20 by 20 meters, so u need to prove at the house itself and the land it sits on before u say 1 sq km intasi ayaa jogga. In all honesty if you assume 20 by 20 villa meter ratio for villas and 3-4 people u wud need assume 1-2 ppl for 10 by 10 square meter. So the density rates for 1 sq km cud be really as low as 1000-2000 per sq km and high of 3000-4000 sq km and averaging needs to be done again to settle on a middle ground

10 by 10 meter with 15 people is far to small, it's half a villa ratio of somalia and ur saying there is 15 people in literally half the land space of normal villa, yaa niyahow, caqliga ka shaqaysiya. If u want to prove your numbers start with smallest denominator at 10 sq meter so we can see with our eyes and we then can look at variations from house to house to get an average but if u want to throw around exageratted claims without proving it in just one 'small area box' like a villa then there is no point going further because it can be calculated after easily 10 by 10 changes to 100 by 100 and then 1000 by 1000 that gives an area sq and finally x the area city as a whole.

I was reasonable and will accept 'adjustment density' in some 'hot spots' in mogadishu but they better prove it with 'dabaqs' as an indicator

 

[DR OSMAN]

Mogadishu could be as low as 90000 if we assume 1000 people per SQ KM which is baselining of 10 by 10 meter only have 1 or 2 people which is half a villa dimension ratio of 20 by 20. So we starting from low point of 90,000 for mogadishu which means 1 person per 10 by 10 meter, which means 2 people per villa 20 by 20 meter. 100 by 100 meter wud be 10 people and 1 km is 1000 people. I refuse to start of on 6 people per 10 by 10 meters as that's just ridiculous as u can't prove that in every inch of area sq of mogadishu. 6 ppl x 10 by 10 meter indicates 60 ppl in 100 by 100 meter sq and that is 6000 per sq km giving mogadishu 540000 people.

Even that disturbs me as it would require me to accept 6 ppl in every 10 by 10 box no matter where i go in the city. War taasi ayaan diidan ahay forget 15000 wud need me to suspend my reasoning to 15 people per 10 by 10 sq meter

This is 10 sq meters


@Thegoodshepherd do u really think there is 15 people in there niyahow? cause u wud need to in order to accept 15000 ppl in 1 sq km as 1 sq km is what? it's merely 10 by 10 sq boxes multiplied 1000 times or in other words if u don't like the numbers, it's literally 1000 of those boxes in mogadishu and your saying there is 15000 in 1000 of those.

That's why I said we need to start from 1 person per 10 by 10 sq meter as that space is for 1 people. So mogadishu population waxay ka bilabmaysa 90,000 untill proven otherwise