@Garaad Awal loves me cause I'm brutally honest, I'm not your average Somali wishing the worst, I actually intervene and show you why their is a shit show to emerge, if I was your real enemy, I would do what the avg Somali does stay silent or act nice supporting you knowing where it concludes.
Listen the issue is really down to power, idealogy and alliances are just secondary in the habar awal and habar yonis conflict. HY see themselves as the rightful majority while.habar awal coin themselves as the most educated. They see your maroodijeex as langaab inside small land plots for the weak while he has huge land mass, I know the thinking, he think if ur so strong n large why u live on such small territory?
Their is only one seat for power and since both clans hold such comtempt against each other, it naturally escalated with egal getting an isaaq alliance while abdirahman tuur had a political alliance in hamar to get the job done and bring the north under him, in return HY will rule the north or some lackey they select and in Mogadishu will get PM or President.
They truly wanted a north and south, Mogadishu and Hargeisa capital and every other clan or region as lowly governors who are selected from those two towns. This idealogy never died and the active players in Mogadishu and Djibouti are awaiting for SL to do its bit in the trinity powerhouse alliance.
So according to HY, Muse Bihi, Silanyo, are seen as puppets of habar awal and cigaal loyalists. Rayale was seen as some middle ground due to isaaq conflict but even he did seem to migrate to egaalist coalition later. Where as ciiro is loyal to abdirahman tuur idea and aideed of a north n south model and with HY at the helm in both centres of powers. Both clans hold zero sum which is what u fear as both want to eliminate the other as win and lose.
As you safely accepted, the habar awal will.possibly retreat and accept results but it don't end there, they will be sitting there looking for any excuse to begin a rebellion and chase him out of Hargeisa. Habar awal is only seeking the right timing and useful opportunity ciiro does to begin a rebellion and chase him out. That's what I assume.also. Ciiro political.leadership shall be seen tho because he isn't SNM, his a technocrat we shall see how he manuevers in such hostile environment.
