40% of warsengeli and dhulbahante are ok with succession? You probably got these numbers from landers. The number is even less than 10% and its closer to 0 for warsengeli. The thing with Somaliland is that the creation of the state is based on the oppression they faced under Siad and a bit of the sidelining from government after the union but that does not give a large percentage of its population a feeling of belonging as citizens. I dont see a path to independence for them tbh FGS will never willing allow them to leave since it could have a rippling effect throughout Somalia and the HOA.This is my personal take on Somaliland clans and their stance on independence.
I think this is a key aspect to understand in order to predict if and when Somaliland will be recognized as independent.
This my guess according to my experience with close relatives who come from clans who reside in SL( mostly Dhulbahante and a few Isaaq relatives)
Isaaqs: 85 % hardcore separatist, 5% moderate unionist, 5% indifferent
Dhulbahante: 50% hardcore unionist, 10% moderate unionist, 30% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist
My guess for other clans that I'm less familiar with
Dir : 60% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist, 30% moderate unionist
Warsangeli: basically same percentages as Dhulbahante
As you can see only one clan is overwhelmingly hardcore separatist , reer awdal are more moderate separatist and Daroods are more likely to be unionist.
The true weakness of the Somaliland project is the undeniable fact that not everyone is pro indpendece.
Unfortunately as somalis we base our politics on clans, all separatist regions have unionists and pro independence folks but it's usually a personal political stance. Most Somalilanders are either pro separstism or unionism only because of qabil. Having genuine debates about unionism vs separatism could benefit somaliland politics. I wish more somalis would start basing their politics on their own personal views even if i disagree
Do you agree with this analysis?
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