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Somaliland clans and their stance on independence

This is my personal take on Somaliland clans and their stance on independence.
I think this is a key aspect to understand in order to predict if and when Somaliland will be recognized as independent.
This my guess according to my experience with close relatives who come from clans who reside in SL( mostly Dhulbahante and a few Isaaq relatives)
Isaaqs: 85 % hardcore separatist, 5% moderate unionist, 5% indifferent
Dhulbahante: 50% hardcore unionist, 10% moderate unionist, 30% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist

My guess for other clans that I'm less familiar with
Dir : 60% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist, 30% moderate unionist
Warsangeli: basically same percentages as Dhulbahante

As you can see only one clan is overwhelmingly hardcore separatist , reer awdal are more moderate separatist and Daroods are more likely to be unionist.
The true weakness of the Somaliland project is the undeniable fact that not everyone is pro indpendece.
Unfortunately as somalis we base our politics on clans, all separatist regions have unionists and pro independence folks but it's usually a personal political stance. Most Somalilanders are either pro separstism or unionism only because of qabil. Having genuine debates about unionism vs separatism could benefit somaliland politics. I wish more somalis would start basing their politics on their own personal views even if i disagree

Do you agree with this analysis?
40% of warsengeli and dhulbahante are ok with succession? You probably got these numbers from landers. The number is even less than 10% and its closer to 0 for warsengeli. The thing with Somaliland is that the creation of the state is based on the oppression they faced under Siad and a bit of the sidelining from government after the union but that does not give a large percentage of its population a feeling of belonging as citizens. I dont see a path to independence for them tbh FGS will never willing allow them to leave since it could have a rippling effect throughout Somalia and the HOA.
 
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The thing with Somaliland is that the creation of the state is based on the oppression they faced under Siad

Its not based on Afweyne crimes against humanity. Its based on international law


www.somalilandlaw.com/Somaliland_Act_of_Union.htm

the legal validity of the legislative instruments establishing the
union were questionable because:
(a) The Union of Somaliland and Somalia Law (aka 1960 Somaliland Law No:1) and the Somalia
Act of Union (Wanlaweyn Law of Union) were both drafted in the form of bilateral agreements,
but neither of them was signed by the representatives of the two
territories
.
(b) The Union of Somaliland and Somalia Law purported to
derogate ... from the Constitution of the Somali
Republic
(i.e. the ItalianSomalia violated its own constitution when they passed the Wanlaweyn Law of Union, which was substantially different from the 1960 Somaliland Law No. 1 aka the Somaliland Law of Union)


The South failed to ratify the Somaliland Law No: 1 of 1960 aka Law of Union Between Somalia and Somaliland. I repeat they never ratifed the SomaailandLaw ofUnion. Somaliland can only be bound by Somaliland Law ofUnion. No Law ofUnion means no legal union. That fact by itself would be enough to justify Somaliland separation.

But then the south also repeatedly dishonored the spirit and letter of that unification law. Did I mention koonfuriya actually never even ratified a Law of Union that met the requirements of their own constitution? The defacto union never became dejure. Then in 1991 the northern clans revoked the 1960 Somaliland Law No: 1 and formed a seperate govenrment. Now there is a defacto seperate government in Somaliland.

Stop tribalizing the Somaaliland issue. It harms reunification efforts. We have to show the majority of JSL why its better to reunite instead of further dividing reer wuqooyi. Any rhetoric based on Daaroodism ideologue fantasies is harmful to reunification between JSL and the Amisom trusteeship known as FGS.

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Mckenzie

We star in movies NASA pay to watch
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It was clear to people in Somaliland from pretty much day 1, that the South was not interested in any fair power sharing at all, and wanted all control to reside in the South. This was most evident in their not even addressing the Act of Union that the Somaliland legislature produced. This Act included several articles geared to ensure that Somaliland could keep some level of autonomy over certain local government areas. The South did not address that draft, and instead created its own Act of Union, signed that itself and put that to a vote in the South dominated National Assembly, knowing it would pass with or without the support of the North.

Additionally, the 1960 government was basically an entirely Southern entity, with only Cigaal getting a decent ministerial appointment. Even that was only the defence ministry position and none of the big ministerial appointment. This was just another sign about how the South only had interest in concentrating all the power and government in the South.

The blame can't all be put on the South though. The Northern delegates in Muqdisho, as a collective failed their people miserably. They did not more vociferously voice their dissatisfaction of the process, and certainly did not acting more forcefully in opposing this blatant power grab and disenfranchisement of the Somaliland people.

The constitution similarly maligned the North and was just a formalization of the status quo, essentially all power and resource would be concentrated in the South. Hence, why the North voted no. The South likely would have had enough votes to still have the referendum pass legitimately, but wanting to take no chances, rigged the vote by having places like Wanla Wayne vote 100% Yes and stacking that ballot with more votes than in the entire North.

Some in the North did try to do exactly what you suggested - they tried to revolt in 1961, They planned a coup that would had it been successful would have declared the independence of Somaliland. Most people in Somaliland however, were not with the coup, I am guessing because they probably did not want war.

Watch this clip from former NSS chief Jaamac Yare explaining what happened in 1960. It was Northerners who came to the South while disunited, Ismaaciil Naxar/Garxajis and SNL- USP were working against Cigaal's selection as PM, they got Jaamac Diir Qaraar (SNL Ciidagale) to contest for a 5 year Speaker role and Caddaanweyne (USP Warsangeli) rescinded his nomination, it is not the South's "fault".



The Act of Union was always precarious and the lack of a unified penal code and language barrier was always a problem. Get some good lawyers!
 

Som

VIP
In both of these instances you are getting away from what your Dhul relatives told you, and adding your assumptions about their intentions

This is what you said they told you:



This tells us that that the Dhulbahante were on board with Somaliland at first, and therefore not committed to Somaliweyn. Their objection to Somaliland afterwards was they that felt it became Isaaq dominated. The only conclusion you can draw from that is that any rejection of Somaliland they now have is based on qabiilism. Equally their renewed vigor for "Somaliweyn" would be pured qabiilist in nature, if what your relative told you is true.

I am not saying I believe that the above is true. Just that that is the only conclusion you can draw from what you were told.
Saying they don't want an isaaq dominated Somaliland doesn't mean they are qabilist,just wanting a more fair and equal Somaliland isn't qabilism per se
 

convincation

Soomaali waa Hawiyah Iyo Hashiyah
VIP
Anti SL people love talking about Garxajis. Neither Habar Younis nor Cidagale want anything to do with you lot. Talk about beggin.
Garhajis are unionist and the ones who are separatists like @Gantaal97 are brainwashed


Real garhajis like my good friend @Gadhwayne are unionist
giphy.gif
 
@Ozark waryaa tf is wrong with dhulo politicians giving the triangle fiefdom legitimacy? i didnt think they could be as idiotic as mx siyaasis.
It’s just a temporary thing till Xamar gets it’s act together, and it’s not all dhulbahante politicians, just the ones that hold LA currently. For instance Buuhoodle the second most important all dhulbahante city is clear of their influence and will always be that way.
This is my personal take on Somaliland clans and their stance on independence.
I think this is a key aspect to understand in order to predict if and when Somaliland will be recognized as independent.
This my guess according to my experience with close relatives who come from clans who reside in SL( mostly Dhulbahante and a few Isaaq relatives)
Isaaqs: 85 % hardcore separatist, 5% moderate unionist, 5% indifferent
Dhulbahante: 50% hardcore unionist, 10% moderate unionist, 30% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist

My guess for other clans that I'm less familiar with
Dir : 60% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist, 30% moderate unionist
Warsangeli: basically same percentages as Dhulbahante

As you can see only one clan is overwhelmingly hardcore separatist , reer awdal are more moderate separatist and Daroods are more likely to be unionist.
The true weakness of the Somaliland project is the undeniable fact that not everyone is pro indpendece.
Unfortunately as somalis we base our politics on clans, all separatist regions have unionists and pro independence folks but it's usually a personal political stance. Most Somalilanders are either pro separstism or unionism only because of qabil. Having genuine debates about unionism vs separatism could benefit somaliland politics. I wish more somalis would start basing their politics on their own personal views even if i disagree

Do you agree with this analysis?
You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.
 
40% of warsengeli and dhulbahante are ok with succession? You probably got these numbers from landers. The number is even less than 10% and its closer to 0 for warsengeli.
Somaliland would not have the prescense it has in Sool and Sanaag if anything remotely close to what your suggestion is true. He may have gotten his numbers from Landers, but you pulled yours straight out of your ass.

The thing with Somaliland is that the creation of the state is based on the oppression they faced under Siad.

This argument is only ever made by Koonfuurians. You don't want to hear it, but that has nothing to do with why Somaliland has regained it's Independence.
 
Watch this clip from former NSS chief Jaamac Yare explaining what happened in 1960. It was Northerners who came to the South while disunited, Ismaaciil Naxar/Garxajis and SNL- USP were working against Cigaal's selection as PM, they got Jaamac Diir Qaraar (SNL Ciidagale) to contest for a 5 year Speaker role and Caddaanweyne (USP Warsangeli) rescinded his nomination, it is not the South's "fault".



The Act of Union was always precarious and the lack of a unified penal code and language barrier was always a problem. Get some good lawyers!

I think you are being very facetious here. I explicitly called out how there was plenty of blame to be laid at the feet of the Northern delegation. Everyone in Somaliland agrees that the Northern delegation was disjointed and naïve.

What is undeniable though is the underhandedness, ill-will and downright corruption (1961 referendum etc.) that the South consistently demonstrated towards the North from the very beginning.

1. The idea of "get some good lawyers" to address the Act of Union debacle is just flippant and dumb. The issue with the Act of Union had nothing to do with disagreements about penal codes or language barriers. The North put forward a proposal Act of Union which was sent to the South. The South never even considered this and dismissed it .Instead they drafted their own of Act of Union that was very different, which the South's legislative assembly signed. The assembly in the South explicitly said the next step should be the “Government of Somalia to establish with the Government of Somaliland a definitive single text of the Act of Union, to be submitted to the National Assembly for approval”. This never happened. The Government of Somalia just signed that Act of Union.

You could argue that the South used its leverage/power to outmanoeuvre the North. What it also demonstrates to people in the North who reviewed this later, is that South was only every interested in a powergrab and having everything concentrated in the South. By no means are we suggesting that the South was absolutely united on everything, just that here all actors in the South shared that goal. This was highlighted as a main factor in the Burco discussions prior to the 18th May Somaliland Declaration of Independence.
 
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Saying they don't want an isaaq dominated Somaliland doesn't mean they are qabilist,just wanting a more fair and equal Somaliland isn't qabilism per se
It means exactly that.
If the Isaaq just did a power grab and circumvented the rules to dominate the country, then their objection would make sense. Such a power grab never happened. Even if you had a perfect democracy in Somaliland today, it is most likely the Isaaq would dominate. The Isaaq are the dominant demographic in Somaliland and always have been.

All non-Isaaq clans will have more power and influence in Somaliland than they ever would in Somalia. As they have willingly rejected the Somaliweyn ideology in the past, it would now only be anti-Isaaq qabiilism that leads them to reject Somaliland. Shiine Culay recently highlighted this very succinctly about his own Warsangeli people.
 
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It’s just a temporary thing till Xamar gets it’s act together, and it’s not all dhulbahante politicians, just the ones that hold LA currently. For instance Buuhoodle the second most important all dhulbahante city is clear of their influence and will always be that way.

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I'm interested in your view on this. Roughly what % of Dhulbahante would you say are for Somaliland independence?
 
I'm not "brainwashed" is just the reality

giphy.gif
Here is the funny thing. One the hand they always make Isaaq out to be this totally united monolith that is single-handledly destroying their Wanlaweyn dream. On the other hand they always scream that one of the 3 biggest Isaaq families is totally pro-Somaliweyn.
:ileycry:
 

Qeelbax

East Africa UNUKA LEH
VIP
Its not based on Afweyne crimes against humanity. Its based on international law


www.somalilandlaw.com/Somaliland_Act_of_Union.htm




The South failed to ratify the Somaliland Law No: 1 of 1960 aka Law of Union Between Somalia and Somaliland. I repeat they never ratifed the SomaailandLaw ofUnion. Somaliland can only be bound by Somaliland Law ofUnion. No Law ofUnion means no legal union. That fact by itself would be enough to justify Somaliland separation.

But then the south also repeatedly dishonored the spirit and letter of that unification law. Did I mention koonfuriya actually never even ratified a Law of Union that met the requirements of their own constitution? The defacto union never became dejure. Then in 1991 the northern clans revoked the 1960 Somaliland Law No: 1 and formed a seperate govenrment. Now there is a defacto seperate government in Somaliland.

Stop tribalizing the Somaaliland issue. It harms reunification efforts. We have to show the majority of JSL why its better to reunite instead of further dividing reer wuqooyi. Any rhetoric based on Daaroodism ideologue fantasies is harmful to reunification between JSL and the Amisom trusteeship known as FGS.

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nigga how would I know
My parents don’t talk about qabil lolz
:sass1::wow::ummhmm:
 

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