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Somaliland clans and their stance on independence

Som

VIP
This is my personal take on Somaliland clans and their stance on independence.
I think this is a key aspect to understand in order to predict if and when Somaliland will be recognized as independent.
This my guess according to my experience with close relatives who come from clans who reside in SL( mostly Dhulbahante and a few Isaaq relatives)
Isaaqs: 85 % hardcore separatist, 5% moderate unionist, 5% indifferent
Dhulbahante: 50% hardcore unionist, 10% moderate unionist, 30% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist

My guess for other clans that I'm less familiar with
Dir : 60% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist, 30% moderate unionist
Warsangeli: basically same percentages as Dhulbahante

As you can see only one clan is overwhelmingly hardcore separatist , reer awdal are more moderate separatist and Daroods are more likely to be unionist.
The true weakness of the Somaliland project is the undeniable fact that not everyone is pro indpendece.
Unfortunately as somalis we base our politics on clans, all separatist regions have unionists and pro independence folks but it's usually a personal political stance. Most Somalilanders are either pro separstism or unionism only because of qabil. Having genuine debates about unionism vs separatism could benefit somaliland politics. I wish more somalis would start basing their politics on their own personal views even if i disagree

Do you agree with this analysis?
 
This is my personal take on Somaliland clans and their stance on independence.
I think this is a key aspect to understand in order to predict if and when Somaliland will be recognized as independent.
This my guess according to my experience with close relatives who come from clans who reside in SL( mostly Dhulbahante and a few Isaaq relatives)
Isaaqs: 85 % hardcore separatist, 5% moderate unionist, 5% indifferent
Dhulbahante: 50% hardcore unionist, 10% moderate unionist, 30% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist

My guess for other clans that I'm less familiar with
Dir : 60% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist, 30% moderate unionist
Warsangeli: basically same percentages as Dhulbahante

As you can see only one clan is overwhelmingly hardcore separatist , reer awdal are more moderate separatist and Daroods are more likely to be unionist.
The true weakness of the Somaliland project is the undeniable fact that not everyone is pro indpendece.
Unfortunately as somalis we base our politics on clans, all separatist regions have unionists and pro independence folks but it's usually a personal political stance. Most Somalilanders are either pro separstism or unionism only because of qabil. Having genuine debates about unionism vs separatism could benefit somaliland politics. I wish more somalis would start basing their politics on their own personal views even if i disagree

Do you agree with this analysis?
No i don't fas you claim somaliland is qabil project when in fact all clans played a role in it especially reer Awdal as they hosted boorama conference in 1993 that put forward a road map and blue print on the establishment of governing institution and what kind of political system should Somaliland follow hence why Boorama is called the motherland of Somaliland
 
This is my personal take on Somaliland clans and their stance on independence.
I think this is a key aspect to understand in order to predict if and when Somaliland will be recognized as independent.
This my guess according to my experience with close relatives who come from clans who reside in SL( mostly Dhulbahante and a few Isaaq relatives)
Isaaqs: 85 % hardcore separatist, 5% moderate unionist, 5% indifferent
Dhulbahante: 50% hardcore unionist, 10% moderate unionist, 30% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist

My guess for other clans that I'm less familiar with
Dir : 60% moderate separatist, 10% hardcore separatist, 30% moderate unionist
Warsangeli: basically same percentages as Dhulbahante

As you can see only one clan is overwhelmingly hardcore separatist , reer awdal are more moderate separatist and Daroods are more likely to be unionist.
The true weakness of the Somaliland project is the undeniable fact that not everyone is pro indpendece.
Unfortunately as somalis we base our politics on clans, all separatist regions have unionists and pro independence folks but it's usually a personal political stance. Most Somalilanders are either pro separstism or unionism only because of qabil. Having genuine debates about unionism vs separatism could benefit somaliland politics. I wish more somalis would start basing their politics on their own personal views even if i disagree

Do you agree with this analysis?
One genuine bit of advice, don't base any analysis you do based on what you hear from relatives. That goes for all Somalis, including my own relatives. We Somalis have a bit of telling stories to suit a narrative, and most Somali storytelling has a distant and conflicting relationship with the truth.

The majority of Somaliland's population is pro-Independence. However, here is the kicker - that actually doesn't matter at all.
A binding declaration of Independence was willingly signed in 1991, by all clans that live in Somaliland. How people's opinion changes over time does not negate the legality of that binding declaration.
 

Som

VIP
One genuine bit of advice, don't base any analysis you do based on what you hear from relatives. That goes for all Somalis, including my own relatives. We Somalis have a bit of telling stories to suit a narrative, and most Somali storytelling has a distant and conflicting relationship with the truth.

The majority of Somaliland's population is pro-Independence. However, here is the kicker - that actually doesn't matter at all.
A binding declaration of Independence was willingly signed in 1991, by all clans that live in Somaliland. How people's opinion changes over time does not negate the legality of that binding declaration.
Well bro, your claim is actually very similar to what a somali unionist would say.
You say the 1991 separatist agreement is binding so it doesn't matter if people change their minds, a somali unionist could say the 1960 union between Somalia and Somaliland is binding and doesn't matter if landers changed their mind.
I think people should never be forced to be part of a country if they don't want to. The vast majority of my Dhulbahante relatives both in the diaspora and back home are against separstism and the few pro Somaliland are more warm towards the idea of reunification, I know somalis storytelling can be tricky sometimes but we could say Dhulbahante are the least pro SL clan
 

Som

VIP
No i don't fas you claim somaliland is qabil project when in fact all clans played a role in it especially reer Awdal as they hosted boorama conference in 1993 that put forward a road map and blue print on the establishment of governing institution and what kind of political system should Somaliland follow hence why Boorama is called the motherland of Somaliland
Ok. I'll tell you something that I've overhead by Dhulbahante people. They say their leaders thought somaliland was a genuine northern project to stay away from the southern chaos but it turned out to be an Isaaq dominated project over time. Don't know if It's true hut that's what I've heard
 

reer

VIP
@Ozark waryaa tf is wrong with dhulo politicians giving the triangle fiefdom legitimacy? i didnt think they could be as idiotic as mx siyaasis.
 
Ok. I'll tell you something that I've overhead by Dhulbahante people. They say their leaders thought somaliland was a genuine northern project to stay away from the southern chaos but it turned out to be an Isaaq dominated project over time. Don't know if It's true hut that's what I've heard
Dhulbahante most of them left SL when second highest govt position VP went to Gadabuursi and also dispute about seat distribution and taxes in their regions which Cali Khalif Gayladh was working on before he died
 

Som

VIP
Dhulbahante most of them left SL when second highest govt position VP went to Gadabuursi and also dispute about seat distribution and taxes in their regions which Cali Khalif Gayladh was working on before he died
Interesting. So would you say Dhulbahante would accept Somaliland if the problems you mentioned were solved with a solution they like?
 
Well bro, your claim is actually very similar to what a somali unionist would say.
You say the 1991 separatist agreement is binding so it doesn't matter if people change their minds, a somali unionist could say the 1960 union between Somalia and Somaliland is binding and doesn't matter if landers changed their mind.
I understand your argument. But here is the kicker. This is why from day one, Somaliland's 1991 declaration of independence has always been in large part based on a legal case.

The 1960 Act of Union that the Somaliland legislature, representing all the peoples living in Somaliland, drafted was never signed/ratfied by the the Souht/Somalia/Italian Somalia. The Act of Union of 1961, which was hastily put together entirely by Southerners to try and formalize the union 7 months later, was never singed by the Somaliland legislature or by any council/body representing the Somaliland people. So you see, even though there was a will by people in the north and the south to unite, the union was never actually legally formed. There would be no legal, binding document Somaliland would be supposedly going back from.

Furthermore, the majority of Somaliland voted against the 1961 constitution. Incidentally, it was from this referendum that the term Wanlaweyn came, as the tiny town of Wanlaweyn with a current population of about 25k, had more "votes" in that referendum than the entire population of Somaliland.
If that doesn't tell you that the South was always ill-intentioned when it came to its dealings with Somaliland, I don't know if anything will.
 
Ok. I'll tell you something that I've overhead by Dhulbahante people. They say their leaders thought somaliland was a genuine northern project to stay away from the southern chaos but it turned out to be an Isaaq dominated project over time. Don't know if It's true hut that's what I've heard

Think about what they are saying though saaxib. They only have a problem with Somaliland because it is dominated by the Isaaq.

1. All this proves is that they object to Somaliland purely on qabiilist ideology. The Somaliweyn BS that their pro-union crowd would be proven to be bullshit.
2. How did they not expect the Isaaq to be the majority or dominate in 1991, when they signed the agreement? Let's say Somaliland was a perfect democracy. It would still be an Isaaq majority country, which the the government reflected as it would be representative of the people that live in Somaliland.
 

Som

VIP
Think about what they are saying though saaxib. They only have a problem with Somaliland because it is dominated by the Isaaq.

1. All this proves is that they object to Somaliland purely on qabiilist ideology. The Somaliweyn BS that their pro-union crowd would be proven to be bullshit.
2. How did they not expect the Isaaq to be the majority or dominate in 1991, when they signed the agreement? Let's say Somaliland was a perfect democracy. It would still be an Isaaq majority country, which the the government reflected as it would be representative of the people that live in Somaliland.
Ok nice argument.
1. I admit Dhulbahante are qabilist just like most somalis, but i wouldn't say they base their unionism on qabil. If it was based on qabil they would advocate for an independent Khaatumo state, if it was on daroodism they would join PL but we all know they have problems with Puntland. I think most Dhulbahante unionists generally have a genuine pro Somaliweyn sentiment for historical reasosn. Dhulbahante were heavily involved in the dervish movement which was proto pan somalist, it was one of the only times in history were different qabilis worked together for a common goal. Dhulbahante are proud of that heritage and maybe that's why many of them are pro unionism. Why would they prefer a country with clans who live far away like hawiye or marehan only for qabilist reasons? Dhulbahante obviously have more in common with other northerners, but the unionist one have ideological reasons to prefer Somaliweyn. Of course there's also a qabilist element to that but it's not the only reason
2. This is tricky. Again from what this is what I've heard from DH relatives.: They claim SNM was initially only anti siad barre and not against somalia in general, this is true since SNM worked with hawiyes and other southerners to overthrow Siad Barre, they say the original independence project was more focused on autonomy rather than complete separation, once it became clear that the war in the south was bot going to end Somalilanders became more and more serious with their independence project while some DH started to distance themselves from that.
 

Som

VIP
I understand your argument. But here is the kicker. This is why from day one, Somaliland's 1991 declaration of independence has always been in large part based on a legal case.

The 1960 Act of Union that the Somaliland legislature, representing all the peoples living in Somaliland, drafted was never signed/ratfied by the the Souht/Somalia/Italian Somalia. The Act of Union of 1961, which was hastily put together entirely by Southerners to try and formalize the union 7 months later, was never singed by the Somaliland legislature or by any council/body representing the Somaliland people. So you see, even though there was a will by people in the north and the south to unite, the union was never actually legally formed. There would be no legal, binding document Somaliland would be supposedly going back from.

Furthermore, the majority of Somaliland voted against the 1961 constitution. Incidentally, it was from this referendum that the term Wanlaweyn came, as the tiny town of Wanlaweyn with a current population of about 25k, had more "votes" in that referendum than the entire population of Somaliland.
If that doesn't tell you that the South was always ill-intentioned when it came to its dealings with Somaliland, I don't know if anything will.
I'm not very familiar with this. Why did the people of Somaliland reject the '61 referendum if they were pro unionism at that time? And why didn't Somaliland polticians immediately declare or threaten to declare independence if they were so unhappy with the South dominating the issue?
 
Dhulos/Warsans can never be separated from the rest of SL. Either all of Somaliland remains a single, separate country or all of SL reunites with Somalia. Dividing up SL along clan lines will never be accepted and only having colonial made borders is the precondition to creating a sovereign nation within Africa
 
Ok nice argument.
1. I admit Dhulbahante are qabilist just like most somalis, but i wouldn't say they base their unionism on qabil. If it was based on qabil they would advocate for an independent Khaatumo state, if it was on daroodism they would join PL but we all know they have problems with Puntland. I think most Dhulbahante unionists generally have a genuine pro Somaliweyn sentiment for historical reasosn. Dhulbahante were heavily involved in the dervish movement which was proto pan somalist, it was one of the only times in history were different qabilis worked together for a common goal. Dhulbahante are proud of that heritage and maybe that's why many of them are pro unionism. Why would they prefer a country with clans who live far away like hawiye or marehan only for qabilist reasons? Dhulbahante obviously have more in common with other northerners, but the unionist one have ideological reasons to prefer Somaliweyn. Of course there's also a qabilist element to that but it's not the only reason
2. This is tricky. Again from what this is what I've heard from DH relatives.: They claim SNM was initially only anti siad barre and not against somalia in general, this is true since SNM worked with hawiyes and other southerners to overthrow Siad Barre, they say the original independence project was more focused on autonomy rather than complete separation, once it became clear that the war in the south was bot going to end Somalilanders became more and more serious with their independence project while some DH started to distance themselves from that.
In both of these instances you are getting away from what your Dhul relatives told you, and adding your assumptions about their intentions

This is what you said they told you:

They say their leaders thought somaliland was a genuine northern project to stay away from the southern chaos but it turned out to be an Isaaq dominated project over time.

This tells us that that the Dhulbahante were on board with Somaliland at first, and therefore not committed to Somaliweyn. Their objection to Somaliland afterwards was they that felt it became Isaaq dominated. The only conclusion you can draw from that is that any rejection of Somaliland they now have is based on qabiilism. Equally their renewed vigor for "Somaliweyn" would be pured qabiilist in nature, if what your relative told you is true.

I am not saying I believe that the above is true. Just that that is the only conclusion you can draw from what you were told.
 
I'm not very familiar with this. Why did the people of Somaliland reject the '61 referendum if they were pro unionism at that time? And why didn't Somaliland polticians immediately declare or threaten to declare independence if they were so unhappy with the South dominating the issue?

It was clear to people in Somaliland from pretty much day 1, that the South was not interested in any fair power sharing at all, and wanted all control to reside in the South. This was most evident in their not even addressing the Act of Union that the Somaliland legislature produced. This Act included several articles geared to ensure that Somaliland could keep some level of autonomy over certain local government areas. The South did not address that draft, and instead created its own Act of Union, signed that itself and put that to a vote in the South dominated National Assembly, knowing it would pass with or without the support of the North.

Additionally, the 1960 government was basically an entirely Southern entity, with only Cigaal getting a decent ministerial appointment. Even that was only the defence ministry position and none of the big ministerial appointment. This was just another sign about how the South only had interest in concentrating all the power and government in the South.

The blame can't all be put on the South though. The Northern delegates in Muqdisho, as a collective failed their people miserably. They did not more vociferously voice their dissatisfaction of the process, and certainly did not acting more forcefully in opposing this blatant power grab and disenfranchisement of the Somaliland people.

The constitution similarly maligned the North and was just a formalization of the status quo, essentially all power and resource would be concentrated in the South. Hence, why the North voted no. The South likely would have had enough votes to still have the referendum pass legitimately, but wanting to take no chances, rigged the vote by having places like Wanla Wayne vote 100% Yes and stacking that ballot with more votes than in the entire North.

Some in the North did try to do exactly what you suggested - they tried to revolt in 1961, They planned a coup that would had it been successful would have declared the independence of Somaliland. Most people in Somaliland however, were not with the coup, I am guessing because they probably did not want war.
 

Qeelbax

East Africa UNUKA LEH
VIP
I’m Darood from both Ogaden and Somaliland, Somalia. Me and my whole fam are hardcore Somaliweyn supporters therefore we are UNIONISTS. f*ck that Somaliland shit, you think UN is gonna allow 3 somali states. Uff Ethiopia is scared of a united somalia yet y’all want to do more spliting, not to mentions y’all are supported by abu lahabs, isnotreal and AmeriKKKA, like y’all are bound to become a terrorist state.
:damn:
 
CaliSugulle famously used poetry to summarize the North felt about unification with the corrupt government of the South. He compared the Southern mafia of the 1960s as hyena eating the camel of a nomadic camel-herder




CaliSugule:
Adduunyo Hal baan Lahaa


Translation:
"In the whole world I only had a single belonging, which wasa she-camel." (Hasha Maandeeq, represented State ofSoomaliland independence on June 26, 1960. Independence was all they had or wanted)





CaliSugule:
Hashiina Horor baa Latagy

"The she-camel was taken by a hyena" (the hyena refers to corrupt southern politicians. Southern corruption was so bad that Afweyne dictatorship was initially welcomed)

CaliSugulle wrote this after a 1961 coup attempt by Isaaq military officers, as well as Northerners military officers who were not Isaaq. Thats why I always remind folks Afweyne crimes against humanity are not the cause of Somaaliland separation.

The Mafiosi politicians of ItalianSomaalia are represented by the hyena who ate the the she-camel Maandeeq, representing independence for the North

why didn't Somaliland polticians immediately declare or threaten to declare independence if they were so unhappy with the South dominating the issue?

See the 1961 coup by northern military officers from Isaaq, northernJabarti, and northern Irir officers

The blame can't all be put on the South though. The Northern delegates in Muqdisho, as a collective failed their people miserably. They did not more vociferously voice their dissatisfaction of the process, and certainly did not acting more forcefully in opposing this blatant power grab and disenfranchisement of the Somaliland people.

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Qeelbax

East Africa UNUKA LEH
VIP
CaliSugulle famously used poetry to summarize the North felt about unification with the corrupt government of the South. He compared the Southern mafia of the 1960s as hyena eating the camel of a nomadic camel-herder




CaliSugule:



Translation:
"In the whole world I only had a single belonging, which wasa she-camel." (Hasha Maandeeq, represented State ofSoomaliland independence on June 26, 1960. Independence was all they had or wanted)





CaliSugule:


"The she-camel was taken by a hyena" (the hyena refers to corrupt southern politicians. Southern corruption was so bad that Afweyne dictatorship was initially welcomed)

CaliSugulle wrote this after a 1961 coup attempt by Isaaq military officers, as well as Northerners military officers who were not Isaaq. Thats why I always remind folks Afweyne crimes against humanity are not the cause of Somaaliland separation.

The Mafiosi politicians of ItalianSomaalia are represented by the hyena who ate the the she-camel Maandeeq, representing independence for the North



See the 1961 coup by northern military officers from Isaaq, northernJabarti, and northern Irir officers



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Im ogaden, like darod<ogaden<isaq/cisse

my sub sub clan is ciise
 

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