Somalia's House of Cards

[Itsnotthateasy]

I hear a lot of criticism of HSM and corruption in the FGS. Apparently the US is pulling some support and asking the FGS to start taking the responsibility for supporting Danab.

Is this a sign that HSM is super corrupt or is it just a natural part of the transition away from external support?

I think it's probably both. From now on the FGS will be taking more and more responbilities on to its weak institutions and the house of cards will get stacked higher and higher.

This process will go on for a few years. The government will try to cram for the exam and reform its institutions to cope and it will look it's making progress. Your favourite uncle, nationalist reformer might even be in office while this happens but really it's too little too late.

The weak institutions will be buckling and the FGS will start compromising with anyone who looks like it can help - FMS, Puntland, whoever - maybe even Somaliland. They might even try genuine reconcilliation but by then it's too little too late and the point of collapse is upon it.

Probably less than 5 years.

Anyway just some random thoughts.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

All well and good but it won't help Somaliland

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

All well and good but it won't help Somaliland

SL was there before the FGS, it will be there afterwards. SL's life will have been complicated by the long term failure and a lot of resources ending up in the wrong hands when the state fails but the show will go on.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

SL was there before the FGS, it will be there afterwards. SL's life will have been complicated by the long term failure and a lot of resources ending up in the wrong hands when the state fails but the show will go on.

Somaliland FAILED to benefit from literally no government in Xamar they won't fare well against a recovering and stronger federal government.

Your problem is not how bad Xamar is, but how weak 'Somaliland' is. They're larping as a state but lack the state functions needed to succeed.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Somaliland FAILED to benefit from literally no government in Xamar they won't fare well against a recovering and stronger federal government.

Your problem is not how bad Xamar is, but how weak 'Somaliland' is. They're larping as a state but lack the state functions needed to succeed.

The earliest function of a sovereign was only one thing back in the day - monopoly on violence.

That's the most basic function and Xamar doesn't have it. There are many more state like entities in Former Somalia than Mogadishu. SL being the greatest of those.

When the FGS falls it will be a game changer for SL because the only argument against (Resurgent federal Somalia) has failed spectacularly.

Anyway you'll see it happen as those mobsters in suits try to build a functioning government, so many points of failure get introduced as the operation gets more complex.

They failed to simply distrubute resources to their troops, when you add procurement and logistics and storage into the mix, so many points where corruption can break the system, many more points of failure. Then multiply it over and over and you get the picture.

 

[wheel]

One might think we are seeing a similar play play out to what happened in Afghanistan. America is going through a phase where they are disengaging from its foreign commitments and are increasingly less eager to get bogged down in never ending quagmires like somalia.
They withdrew from afghanistan despite that country being worth more to America. But the taliban are not alshabab, Alshabab are a far greater and malevolent problem. So this is more likely them utilizing a carrot and stick approach, they are punishing corruption in Somalia which has worsened under the ever corrupt and shameless HSM.

 

[Samatar03]

One might think we are seeing a similar play play out to what happened in Afghanistan. America is going through a phase where they are disengaging from its foreign commitments and are increasingly less eager to get bogged down in never ending quagmires like somalia.
They withdrew from afghanistan despite that country being worth more to America. But the taliban are not alshabab, Alshabab are a far greater and malevolent problem. So this is more likely them utilizing a carrot and stick approach, they are punishing corruption in Somalia which has worsened under the ever corrupt and shameless HSM.

If Trump comes back in Jan 2025 it’s literally over for Somalia. He will pull EVERYTHING just to spite Ilhan Omar lmao. Somalias current elites don’t care either. They will loot until there is nothing left and then hightail it out of there. The gaari dameer has literally fallen off the tracks…sad

 

[Zak12]

If Trump comes back in Jan 2025 it’s literally over for Somalia. He will pull EVERYTHING just to spite Ilhan Omar lmao. Somalias current elites don’t care either. They will loot until there is nothing left and then hightail it out of there. The gaari dameer has literally fallen off the tracks…sad

He didn't do anything in his first term. Trump is beholded to America's interests in Somalia

 

[Samatar03]

He didn't do anything in his first term. Trump is beholded to America's interests in Somalia

I don’t think you know what you are talking about when it comes to Trump and America sxb. He is beholden only to himself, certainly not 3rd world African hell holes.

 

[Zak12]

I don’t think you know what you are talking about when it comes to Trump and America sxb. He is beholden only to himself, certainly not 3rd world African hell holes.

Somalia isn't some random African country, it has massive geographic significance and huge amounts of resources as well.

 

[Samatar03]

Somalia isn't some random African country, it has massive geographic significance and huge amounts of resources as well.

You are only saying that cause you are Somali. Everyone says the same about their country regardless what state it’s in.

 

[Zak12]

You are only saying that cause you are Somali. Everyone says the same about their country regardless what state it’s in.

Nope, its just facts sxb. Why do you think America is still invested in the Middle East all this time? They don't want Somalia to fall into terrorist or Chinese/Russian influence.

 

[Samatar03]

Nope, its just facts sxb. Why do you think America is still invested in the Middle East all this time? They don't want Somalia to fall into terrorist or Chinese/Russian influence.

The Middle East has oil. Somalia has jack shit lol

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

You are only saying that cause you are Somali. Everyone says the same about their country regardless what state it’s in.

Objectively Somalia is strategically important.

This is why it got the interest of many countries and why there is still a lot of involvement.

A strong united Somalia can block 15% of world trade in an instant.

It can intervene in the Middle East and is perfectly located- the planes wouldn't even have to refuel.

It can become a vital node for the revived Silk Road trade routes if the Chinese succeed in promoting trade amongst the Indian Ocean states.

This is not to mention other factors that should have been in its favour: abundant resources, a youthful population, a relatively homogenous population, etc. The only people that don't see the relevance and importance of Somalia are its own people

 

[Samatar03]

Objectively Somalia is strategically important.

This is why it got the interest of many countries and why there is still a lot of involvement.

A strong united Somalia can block 15% of world trade in an instant.

It can intervene in the Middle East and is perfectly located- the planes wouldn't even have to refuel.

It can become a vital node for the revived Silk Road trade routes if the Chinese succeed in promoting trade amongst the Indian Ocean states.

This is not to mention other factors that should have been in its favour: abundant resources, a youthful population, a relatively homogenous population, etc.

I don’t disagree with you but none of this is anything new. Somalia just can’t seem to get its act together. Sooner or later everyone cuts their losses and gives up on you.

 

[Zak12]

The Middle East has oil. Somalia has jack shit lol

Somalia has oil too, and is located near a strategic water lane

 

[Samatar03]

Somalia has oil too, and is located near a strategic water lane

Which part of Somalia?

 

[Zak12]

Which part of Somalia?

Across the coast from Puntland to Southwest

 

[ina-cilmi]

Somaliland FAILED to benefit from literally no government in Xamar they won't fare well against a recovering and stronger federal government.

Your problem is not how bad Xamar is, but how weak 'Somaliland' is. They're larping as a state but lack the state functions needed to succeed.

Honestly landers atp are just coping, if they could not solidify their claim in 1991 and the following years of the early 2000s then what makes them think they shall ever do so now? Especially when Sool wants nothing to do with them and im seeing likeminded thinking from Awdal

 

[White-Macrobian]

Honestly landers atp are just coping, if they could not solidify their claim in 1991 and the following years of the early 2000s then what makes them think they shall ever do so now? Especially when Sool wants nothing to do with them and im seeing likeminded thinking from Awdal

They are coping haard because time runs against them. That why they pulled the MoU shit knowing damn well that no somali would accept that shit.

They shouldve changed their strategy from isolationism to establishing widespread influence with somalis instead of simping for foreigners.