Somalia National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2025-2029
- Thread starter Hilmaam
- Start date
I genuinely don't see how any forecast that far ahead for a country like Somalia could be even close to accurate.
There is margin of error built into all forecasts. The further out the less accurate and they will modify as time passes and more concrete data is available. This is just targets for somalia, they are very aggresive and probably looking at things from a brighter and best case scenario perspective
Wow its scary how close this is to what we were saying on the forum. I said a $6k gdp per capita by the 2050s was definitely possible. The oil+ foreign investment + diaspora skills and capital.
This is me speculatiing but I have to wonder if their confidence has something to do with some not yet public knowledge about our oil reserves.
They state in the report its very optimistic goal and they are looking at countries like china to say this aggressive growth possible. But yes to hit aggressive goals like this you will need major investment in things like dams, mineral mines, and even oil infrastructure. Major projects like this can easily take 10 years. the longer security and political issues last the less likelihood 2060 goals get hit
Sol
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I like that they're using china as a target but yea this are some very ambitious targets which cover a wide range of sectors, and with the looming threat of alshabaab and constanst scuffles between states I don't see them hitting that 2060 target unless they curb these issues as soon as possible. Thanks for linking the docs/graphics interesting read nonetheless and being optimistic is better than pessimistic and non-ambitious imo
Not gonna lie, as much as I commend the government for the ambitious steps it’s taking, their understanding of Somalia’s economy still feels very surface level. They often lack proper tracking of the progress being made, have incomplete info on different sectors, and rely too much on outdated or faulty statistical metrics (which they kind of admit to, but still publish anyway).
Take electricity, for example. In most urban centers, private metro-grid companies have already upgraded their systems. A few years back it was mostly low-mid voltage with lots of system losses, but now we’re seeing 11Kv and even 33Kv grids with proper substations. Basically, it’s become high-voltage, efficient, and modern a completely different reality from the picture old stats suggest.
I shared a video where they actually explain this:
Also, it’s pretty ironic. They acknowledge that Somalia has over 60% electricity access thanks to its microgrid systems in 2022, but then they compare Somalia’s ''total power generation'' side-by-side with countries that run on a single centralized national grid. Of course the total generation will look lower a national grid is built to serve the whole country in one system, while microgrids are meant to power specific towns, regions, or clusters. The point of microgrids isn’t to rival a mega-grid in raw output, but to give reliable, localized access where people actually live and work.
I’m not going to make a firm claim on exactly how much Somalia relies on solar and renewables, because the numbers aren’t always clear. BECO said in 2022 that 20% of their energy came from solar, and that by 2025 they aimed to supply 75% of Somalia with electricity, with 80% of it coming from renewables. I don’t know if they’ve fully reached that target yet. Hormuud said that 85% of their equipment relies on solar energy which implies high usage throughout the country and they invested in solar powered data centers as well which requires high energy output to sustain.
What we do know is that places like Garowe are already heavily renewable ,NECSOM reported that 90% of the city’s power comes from a wind/solar hybrid system with battery storage. In Hargeisa, a solar plant with 20 MW capacity was launched to cover 80% of the city’s households.
somalilandstandard.com
Galkacyo also installed a hybrid solar power plant next to its existing substation last year.
It does seem like they are installing Solar panels everywhere, from office building, businesses ,houses, storages , agricultural irrigation, water supply . I wouldn't be surprised if half of Somalia is using Solar, perhaps even more.
There’s more I could say, but the per capita and GDP stats are way off. I really became convinced of this once I dug into how distorted Somalia’s exports and imports actually are. I’ll save the full breakdown for another place since it’s long and there is a list of examples i noted down, but it’s exactly what @Midas pointed out before Somali businessmen set up offices in hubs like the UAE, Nairobi, Turkey etc while keeping operations in Somalia.
That setup explains a lot. It suddenly makes sense how fishermen now earn $1k–3k a month, or how banana farmers average around $18k a year. It’s tied to the value chains Somali companies have built, where they control multiple stages from production, to processing, to trade so more of the profit and reinvestment circles back into the Somali economy.
So you can imagine how much these planned transformation investments could boost incomes in the coming years. It’s going to be exciting to see but only if local companies control the process. Otherwise, the profits will just be sent abroad, and workers will be stuck with low local wages.
I also don’t get these growth projections by 2050 or 2060 etc. What exactly are they basing them on? I read through the plan and couldn’t find a clear rationale behind the numbers. Honestly, they sound like complete lowball estimates in many of them and underestimation in others.
Take electricity, for example. In most urban centers, private metro-grid companies have already upgraded their systems. A few years back it was mostly low-mid voltage with lots of system losses, but now we’re seeing 11Kv and even 33Kv grids with proper substations. Basically, it’s become high-voltage, efficient, and modern a completely different reality from the picture old stats suggest.
I shared a video where they actually explain this:
Also, it’s pretty ironic. They acknowledge that Somalia has over 60% electricity access thanks to its microgrid systems in 2022, but then they compare Somalia’s ''total power generation'' side-by-side with countries that run on a single centralized national grid. Of course the total generation will look lower a national grid is built to serve the whole country in one system, while microgrids are meant to power specific towns, regions, or clusters. The point of microgrids isn’t to rival a mega-grid in raw output, but to give reliable, localized access where people actually live and work.
I’m not going to make a firm claim on exactly how much Somalia relies on solar and renewables, because the numbers aren’t always clear. BECO said in 2022 that 20% of their energy came from solar, and that by 2025 they aimed to supply 75% of Somalia with electricity, with 80% of it coming from renewables. I don’t know if they’ve fully reached that target yet. Hormuud said that 85% of their equipment relies on solar energy which implies high usage throughout the country and they invested in solar powered data centers as well which requires high energy output to sustain.
What we do know is that places like Garowe are already heavily renewable ,NECSOM reported that 90% of the city’s power comes from a wind/solar hybrid system with battery storage. In Hargeisa, a solar plant with 20 MW capacity was launched to cover 80% of the city’s households.
Somaliland: President Bihi Launches Solar Project electrifying 80 % of Houses in the capital
Somaliland President Musa Bihi Abdi on Wednesday launched solar power plant which has the capacity to generate a total of 20 megawatts of electricity. According to a statement from the presi…
somalilandstandard.com
Galkacyo also installed a hybrid solar power plant next to its existing substation last year.
It does seem like they are installing Solar panels everywhere, from office building, businesses ,houses, storages , agricultural irrigation, water supply . I wouldn't be surprised if half of Somalia is using Solar, perhaps even more.
There’s more I could say, but the per capita and GDP stats are way off. I really became convinced of this once I dug into how distorted Somalia’s exports and imports actually are. I’ll save the full breakdown for another place since it’s long and there is a list of examples i noted down, but it’s exactly what @Midas pointed out before Somali businessmen set up offices in hubs like the UAE, Nairobi, Turkey etc while keeping operations in Somalia.
That setup explains a lot. It suddenly makes sense how fishermen now earn $1k–3k a month, or how banana farmers average around $18k a year. It’s tied to the value chains Somali companies have built, where they control multiple stages from production, to processing, to trade so more of the profit and reinvestment circles back into the Somali economy.
So you can imagine how much these planned transformation investments could boost incomes in the coming years. It’s going to be exciting to see but only if local companies control the process. Otherwise, the profits will just be sent abroad, and workers will be stuck with low local wages.
I also don’t get these growth projections by 2050 or 2060 etc. What exactly are they basing them on? I read through the plan and couldn’t find a clear rationale behind the numbers. Honestly, they sound like complete lowball estimates in many of them and underestimation in others.
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Planners: Somalia GDP is gonna grow at 7% for 3 decades straight with terrorists controlling a third of the country
Also the planners: In 20 years we still won’t record most births.
The cowards should have put 99% for births registered. Be ambitious
Al-Shabaab does not control a third of the country at all. Their presence is limited to a patchwork of rural villages or remote open areas where they hide. They operate more like scattered rural bandits than a governing authority.
Their survival depends on mobility, intimidation, and taxing remote communities, not genuine territorial control. Meanwhile, every major town and populated area in south-central Somalia has remained under federal or regional government control for years.
People often overestimate their strength. I realized this after seeing how many fully equipped, professional private security companies (PSCs) exist across Somalia, funded by local communities and the diaspora. They function like mini armies, effectively protecting their areas.
The fact that Al-Shabaab cannot capture or hold cities is proof that Somali PSCs, federal forces, and local defense groups are stronger than outsiders think. At this point, they’re more of a chronic security nuisance than an existential threat.
Al-Shabaab survives as a fluid insurgency rather than a governing power, which shows the system works they’re stuck in survival mode, not expansion. And despite their presence, production and development have expanded across regions. For example, crop processing companies operate in Jubba, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle, exporting produce from local farmlands. Various major companies have branch offices in various towns across the south. On the ground there is a lot economic growth that has happened that people don't realize because political coverage and bickering dominate the headlines and social media posts.
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Yeah goal seems bit low. hopefully the reer miyi population a lot lower in future, hard to register folks who constantly on the move in middle of nowhere. Somalia is huge country and we very spread out makes it harder to provide modern amenities. Alot of our wars and environmental issues tied to these rural folks trying to scrape by and moving to find pastuers to feed livestock
People overestimate alshabab and underestimate the insurgencies and militias in ethiopia . At the end of the day what people want is economic growth and their living standards to improve. If they instead decrease overtime the resentment and anger/frustration generated is far more powerful and dangerous than a group like alshaba. The fact that even local govt officials cant move safely in the core regions of amahara,tigray, and oromomia is downplayed way too much.
Urbanization is already high, why aren’t they assuming it will keep growing in the next 20 years.
Just recently the Turkish Ambassador commended Somalia for its security and said they can now freely move about to different regions at any hour of the day and doesn't feel unsafe when joining public events
I am actually not surprised since the WOF report showed how consistent the movement of goods was. So people have no trouble getting around.
You can tell from this simple report that Alshabab is in reality just a minor security nuisance confined to remote areas and sparse rural villages. You can see that all the corridors connecting to various towns are very accessible and they have vibrant markets.
It's the opposite in Ethiopia where you can't even move around much at all, it shows in how dysfunctional their market is
ur right something off. they expect very high urbanization 2060. would expect higher birth registration in cities
