Somalia election 2016 thread

[Thegoodshepherd]

I will be updating this thread weekly, please make it a sticky mods, thanks.


The only agreement to come out of the meeting this week was that a poll of sorts was to be conducted at the federal state concerning the system that was to be used.
Article in English on the 4 options: http://goobjoog.com/english/?p=20880
Option #1 very large electoral college, hundreds of people from each of the 18 states, nominate MPs for nationwide political parties. Proportional representation.
Option #2 Federal states choose their own MPs
Option #3 Each of the 92 (actually 89) pre-1991 districts gets three MPs nominated by the people of the district.
Option #4 The 4.5 ratio, the same as what was used in 2012.

I personally favor the third option, it maintains the old system and helps the country achieve a truly national representation in parliament. The problem is that they add 3 extra districts out of nowhere; the correct number has always been 89 not 92.
I made this map so that everyone can see how clans are distributed in the districts.


Gray: Dir
Blue: Darod
Yellow: Isaq
Red: Hawiye
Orange: D&M
Purple: mixed

 

[MrPrestige]

Xudun district is mixed as well. This map is biased a little.

 

[John Michael]

Most areas in the south are mixed though. In fact I would say it's impossible to know who lives where.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

This map is perhaps the most accurate you will see of Somalia.
It seems biased because I marked a district mixed if it had a 60/40 ratio, anything less than 40% and you don't make it.

The South only seems mixed, it is actually pretty homogenous in most districts, except a handful.
For example, Bay region has D&M at above 90%, same for Middle Shabelle with Hawiye at above 80%.

 

[Freebandz]

Xudun district is mixed as well. This map is biased a little.

You live in few villages don't get ahead of yourself at least 80% of the district is dhulbahante

 

[MrPrestige]

Do you know the population of Xudun? We make up nearly half of it... according to the last population estimations.

 

[Freebandz]

Do you know the population of Xudun? We make up nearly half of it... according to the last population estimations.

Ohh bohol king can you get me the un estimation on your city? Bohol is a village nothing more isaaq have better chance of claiming buuhoodle where they have a large presence

 

[MrPrestige]

Bohol area including Ceel La Helay, Sabawanaag and many more had a population of 5,000.
Were's Xudun town and the other villages can't be more than 10,000, so the entire district is
not that really populated.

 

[Freebandz]

Bohol area including Ceel La Helay, Sabawanaag and many more had a population of 5,000.
Were's Xudun town and the other villages can't be more than 10,000, so the entire district is
not that really populated.

No village you have is bigger than hudun
Logically speaking the isaaq villages are around 5-7
while dhulbahante is around 23-25
Let's say all dhulbahante villages are lived by 500 people each so if 500 is multiplied by 23=11,500
let me remind you the whole district is 18,000 according to the 2005 charts
plus the 3,000 people in xudun it self
14,500 of all population is dhulbahante
this is probably the most accurate and most of my numbers were low estimation like using 500 as default

 

[MrPrestige]

I have seen that 18,000 estimation 2005 UNDP, which 5,000 is Bohol area and the
surrounding villages.

 

[Freebandz]

I have seen that 18,000 estimation 2005 UNDP, which 5,000 is Bohol area and the
surrounding villages.

Ok then that would sum up all the isaaq population in the district then considering the isaaq villages and bohol is few miles apart
bohol alone doesn't any near 5000 but if you add the isaaq village near it is possible to be around
If hudun it self is less than 5000 no way bohol is anywhere near it

 

[MrPrestige]

No other Isaaq live there. Only my sub clan of SY live there. Currently Bohol has
about 60 houses and it is growing fastly.. with neighboring Ceel Lahelay(another
town also growing).

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

There is no election Xassan Sheikh will come back.

This time it will be an intra hutu scramble for power.

 

[Unionist]

Somaliland are not part of the 2016 electoral process so eliminating them, Darood will have more MP's in the Parliament if option 3 is taken. I don't think Hutus will take it without calaacal so it leaves with either option 1 which is the second bests option. Option 4 will be the worst.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The UN has submitted its opinion on how the election should proceed. They recommend that the Upper House should be established, with each of the 18 states receiving 3 MP seats. They also want to extend the term of the current Parliament an additional 3 years and have the combined 329 member Upper and Lower houses elect the president in 2016.

This means that 4.5 would no longer apply, and would give much greater representation to Darod and Hawiye. The biggest losers out of this arrangement would be D&M and Dir.
This state based system would give Darod around 35%~37% of the upper house.

Read recommendation here: http://goo.gl/FcCv01

 

[Rooble]

Flawed imaginary map. So many areas are mixed. What a smeagle he add Darood to Rahanweyn region and disregarded the mixed regions of Jubaland. This baboon is dreaming.


haaaaa!!!

NEXT!

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

You mean Ceel Barde district in Bakool?

 

[Freebandz]

Flawed imaginary map. So many areas are mixed. What a smeagle he add Darood to Rahanweyn region and disregarded the mixed regions of Jubaland. This baboon is dreaming.


haaaaa!!!

NEXT!

Tbh his not that far off I just did a recount 11/14 districts in jubaland is darod
I also didn't count darod lived areas in bay & bakool
Discounted districta like galkayo and erigabo we still have close to 30 I got 29 actually

 

[Rooble]

Tbh his not that far off I just did a recount 11/14 districts in jubaland is darod
I also didn't count darod lived areas in bay & bakool
Discounted districta like galkayo and erigabo we still have close to 30 I got 29 actually

Name the districts

I'll redo this map. He was pretty generous with the blue.

 

[Freebandz]

Name the districts

I'll redo this map. He was pretty generous with the blue.

Xudun District
las anod District
telah District
buuhoodle District
las qorey District
badhen District
Alula District
Bandarbayla District
Bosaso District
Iskushuban District
Qandala District
Qardho District
Burtinle District
Eyl District
Garowe District
Galdogob District
Jariban District
Kismayo District
Harti alone is 18 districts
Abudwaq District
El Wak District
Baardheere District
Balet Hawo District
Doolow District
Garbahaarreey District
Luuq District
buur dhuubo
merahan is 8 more
Bu'aale District
Afmadow District
Badhaadhe District
Xagar District
So 30 all in total if you take out mixed districts
Siyaad barre gave us the upper hand when he Made districts and regions
Idk for sure if hagar is a district cause it says in wiki it is but on population chart it doesn't