ANALYSIS Somalia districts map by population

[Thegoodshepherd]

2005

2014

Light yellow: under 100,000
Gold: over 100,000
Orange: over 200,000
Light red: over 300,000
Dark red: over 400,000
Burgundy: over 500,000

 

[Prime Minister]

It's nice but I think it would be better if the figures should be on the maps and based on 2005 and 2014 it's probably the UN population estimate.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I don't look at any estimates untill their estimation formula is provided. It's not hard to estimate and only requires three variables.

1. Area sq km of villages/town and 'density' rate per area sq that itself needs to be proven and not some ridiculous 30k in one area sq which means u won't be able to see even the 'ground'

2. Area sq km need to deduct all open spaces in towns/villages so the houses are only accounted for which should drop most places by 50% of land mass

3. Nomadic population need calculation based on water infrastructure be it wells, dams, barkads. Land size is also huge factor in nomadic populations due to over-grazing happening in small pastures meaning shift to urban or farming practises is inevitable as pastoralism is linked to large grazing grounds and that's why u see lots of hargeisa/awdal settle down into farming as the land size isn't sufficient for large pastoralism.

Divide all Somali land up by land-area sq. Calculate settled populations using village/town combination totals. Do the same with nomadics by water wells/dams and pasture size as this will restrict population growth or increase it those 3 key factors.

Farming areas are quick to work out since it's settled population just not urbanized which is total 70,000 SQ KM fertile lands out of 637000 sq km land mass. I would also include some sort of reference for your population estimates against GDP or another baseline population like Garissa or 'both' to stregthen it. So these 'maps' are usually without the methodology shown.

Garissa template is good for nomadic/settled type districts since it's similar environment and occupation. Where-as farming ones need to baseline of 'ethiopia/kenya' farming areas and work out their 'total area sq' of villages and apply a similar density ratio as ethiopian/kenyan farming settlements and it needs to fall within 'reasonable' GDP ratios since u only make up 40% at full capacity of GDP products. So it's hard to justify your larger then 40% of nation wide population since that's all your production is worth a year. You need to go share your 6 million among hawiye/darods/digil iyo mirifle/madows with digil/madow forming a large share of it is my assumption but it's still restricted within 6 million total since that's 40% of national population.

The largest population centers are not cities or villages since it's only 20% of nation wide population pool, it's only 3 million pool. It's nomad/farmers who form the bulk 40% and 40% making 80% of the population according to GDP anyways.

 

[DR OSMAN]

If u look at 'settled' vs 'unsettled' populations then it would be 40% for villages plus 20% for urban which would be 60/40 ratio but if you look at purely just 'urban' vs rural then it's 80% rural vs 20% urban. Urban has characteristics such as infrastructure of water-electricity-industries-services-etc which rural simply doesn't.

So that's why you see some say 60/40 for settled vs unsettled in Somalia which purely looking at settlement ratios but when they talking urban vs rural then all villages be it nomadic/farming communities do not have the signature of an urban city and fall into rural category which makes Somalia urban/rural ratios 80/20.

PL will fall under the 'rural' definition and would need to share with 'southern rural' communities if the nation was to divide population as simply rural vs urban since that is where the largest segment of population is now 60% and 40% nomadic. This includes tuulos-degmos-magaalos since it fall under 'settled' category but not necessarily 'urban' as only 'magaalos' are considered 'urban' but it's still considered settled it's just settled has two 'categories' which is rural/urban. Rural itself has categories settled/unsettled which is where nomadic pools comes into play which is separate 'category' inside rural.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I assuming that map is looking at 'settled' populations only which is fine but it has to say that since 'density' is measure of 'settled' which is only accounting for 60% of the population anyways which is 40% are villages/towns and 20% magaalo.

So it should say this is measurement of 'population' based on settled ratio of Somalia and not including 40% nomadic ratio. Even then density means high population with a 'confined' area square it doesn't necessarily mean a large population over-all that the population is simply 'contained' in a given space.

Gaza for example is good example, it's only a 1.8 million but it shows up as the highest density in the world maps but it's still 1.8 million irrespective in comparison to Israel who has larger land and large population as they can spread out their settlements over a larger land mass. So Israel density is lower but it's still higher population wise then Gaza who has higher density. Infact it's the highest density in the world.

Density truly matters when u measuring 'settled' areas I will agree with that as not all settled areas have the same density ratio. So village to village or city to city density is important as it's measuring the same 'small area space'. But u still need to 'total' the number of villages and get total area sq of all 'settled' villages because just cause one village has more density then another village or city doesn't mean shit if the other dude is like Israel and has more towns-settlement spread out, so he may accept lower density per village but not over-all total village. Density is usually a sign of 'limited' total of villages anyways.

 

[DR OSMAN]

It's impossible to swallow that the nomadic areas only constitute 1 million yet have production value of 2.8 billion dollars yet the urban/farming areas are 12 million and only produce $4 billion.

I can't swallow that at all that 12 million have the purchasing power of 1 million nomads nation wide. The nomad pool has to correlate to 6 million at least and make up 40% of the nation population.

This would mean 2.8 billion can be split by 6 million nomads at rate of $466 per nomad x 6 household it wud be $2.7k average for nomadic family.

Where-as the agriculture output of 2.8 billion/6 million farmers would give them $466 per farmer a year which I highly 'dispute' and why I think the farmer pool has higher density per family and is poorer per capita to a nomadic family and I say this with strong evidence if a nomadic family sold their 'herds' they could easily settle into an urban area and purchase a property showing you that the urban gdp per capita and nomadic one is 'similar', where-as you won't see this with the farmers who will live in camps unless someone can show me that farmers have the same GDP per capita as urban which is $500 per person in city and it's very similar for 6 person household nomad to have $500 per person.

I simply don't see this in the farmers and my only logical explanation is they have 'higher' population compared to their GDP production and why u see their asses being cleaners in the city with lower purchasing power where-as nomads are automatically urban class when they shift into a city like with a percentage of my own family now residing in garowe as urban class with a property while we still family members who are still 'nomadic' proving nomads/urbans have the same purchasing power since if an urbanite sold their family home they cud possibly translate that asset and have the same livestock numbers of an 'average' nomadic family herd count of 25 camels and 400 sheeps/goats.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Only real 'maths' guys will understand what I am saying. The Nomad has the same purchasing power as an urbanite and it's demonstrated if an 'average' nomadic family of 25 camels/400 sheeps n goats sold it all they would slip into some 'xafaad' with similar property and join the 'middle class' of Somalia which is join the 'ngo n remittance' line as that's what the urban class are as their economy is tied to consumption thru remittance which is responsible for the production sde of the city, if the remiittance stopped today in urban area, all those shops/restaurants/electricity/money transfer/water companies wud essentially come to a halt since the large bulk of urbanites are surviving of remittance from 'productive' nations in the western world. Would a nomad join this line yes he would, hence their purchasing power is identical to urbanite who were most likely 'former nomads' themselves who sold their herds and settled the city back in 30s till 90s.

But the farmer pool is different u won't see them slip into the urban class whatsoever, they do the lowest occupations in urban areas, so their farming per capita must not correlate to $500 per person like it is for nomads/urbanites cause those ppl should technically be able to purchase a house for their family of 6 in an urban environment and then rely on 'diaspora remittance' which is why I don't say nomads are technically richer then urbanites or else they wouldn't join the same queue. But their definitely richer then the average farmer per capita who cannot even achieve putting a roof over his head in a city, showing their wealth is 'lower' far 'lower' then urbanites/nomads. It's further streghtened by the fact this is also the largest 'begging' group in Somalia leading one towards the belief they are poorer per person then coastal/urban/nomadic who enjoy a similar purchasing power with urban/nomad higher then fishermen who only get $2k purchasing power per person, but farmer is right at the bottom of the 'pool'. Now we need to find out why this is the case, it's either their population far exceeds their yearly products or their yearly product is far exceeding what was estimated

 

[DR OSMAN]

We know there is only 70,000 SQ KM of technical fertile land. Around 65% of that is in the south of Somalia with 5% spread up north but let's just assume for argument sake it's 70,000 SQ KM of farm land with a total area of 110,000 SQ KM for JL and 98,000 SQ KM For the South-west and Hirshabelle is another 72,000 SQ KM. It's a total of 270,000 SQ KM but only 65000 SQ KM is fertile land.

So that's 270,000 SQ KM/65000 SQ KM. Your technically looking at only 5% rate of fertile land within those Southern corridor, it's even less ratio if you total it against the national area sq as the farm land percentage should half to 2.5% fertile while 98% is semi arid.

When I say fertile I mean lands that is cultivated, the actual soil of most of Somalia hasn't gone beyond the state of restoration especially if it's still semi-arid and showing signs of vegetation from 'rain' and blossoms, it means that land is still 'fertile' just lacks enough of 'water' only, where-as some land have gone beyond the stage of restoration like the 'guban' in SL, no matter how much rain fails, that land isn't restoring itself, their is probably some type of geological measure of 'land soils that have lost key elements for fertility' where it has reached a pass beyond restoration point, like a 'rock' there is no point trying to 'restore' a rock or 'sands' that have broken down into 'fine particles' it won't bind together anymore to create a 'base'.

Luckily Somalia land is restorable where-as if it's worth restoring is total another story linked to the country 'national wealth' at this stage I don't see any financial reason for land restoration by looking at the GDP unless of course it's for other economic activity such as 'nature reserves' and 'tourism' intentions but not 'farming' there simply not enough financial proof to increase production beyond their remittance economy which is said to be around 2-3 billion dollars and hence that is total cap for production untill consumption itself changes which requires jobs and creating other products and goods and services.

But back to southern farm land measurements. If there is 6 million people in those agriculture states u wud assume that farm land wud be split 65,000/6 million. That's roughly 90 AREA SQ per farmer, visually that's close to 'mogadishu' land mass per each farmer assuming 6 million population. Now if we were to measure the 'value' of that total land, it wouldn't exceed '2.8 billion' even at it's full production capacity of 40% of the population which has been halved now with the IDP crisis down to 20% only remaining in those regions.

So the land value is $2.8 billion/65000 sq km. That's 45k per area sq, for the more visual people that's roughly 45k x 90 Area Sq means u should technically be able to score land the size of mogadishu at half a million, obviously this looking at the total of land and population and production variables, it will be different pricing of lands in different areas depending on population/land/production value being different within JL/SW/HS which is land mass of 270k area sq with only 5% of that 'cultivated' land.

Within that 5% which is around 65,000 SQ KM, there isn't a uniform population/production n land equality as u should expect fluctations as nothing is 'equal' in any measurements, u will find some ares with smaller land, higher population, more or less production against their $2.8 billion universal agriculture output, where-as some areas cud be less ppl/more land/less production and therefore it's value of land will go up n down based on these variables. But if we looked at it from 'flat no variable' perspective a mogadishu size farm land shud cost u around 500k dollars, will it actual be 'worth' the investment is another story kkkkk as land is only measured on production value and supply/demand of land space.

If production value is high and land is low, land sells high since each inch of it is worthy investment, where-as if land is high supply and production is low, land is cheap as biscuits since there no real product or population constraint being used to justify it's worth. The other type of land is lots of ppl and less land like u see in hargeisa-mogadishu which is going to sky rocket land prices not due to 'productivity' but due to 'population' exceeding land space, these sorts of places are bad 'investment' choices since it's ppl who are causing the land to go up not the production of the place and ppl with low production rate pooling together in small area space is recipes of a 'ghetto' economy and any investor shud be cautious, I know I wud be.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Just City of Sydney which is the business district not the over-all 'city' has a GDP of $130,069 million dollars and the CBD is only '2 area sq' kilometers, it's half the size of one Mogadishu neighborhood if u assume each neighborhood is 5 SQ KM x 16 neighborhoods for a total of 90 area sq km.

Sydney CBD is 2 area SQ KM with a population of 17000 and GDP of $130 million, primarily in 'service sector' especially 'financial and banking' and 'hospitality' being the 'bulk' of production in that small area of space.

That's a population of 17k and land space of 2 area sq is literally 0.10 meters per person, that's less then one bedroom, 10 by 10 meters of land. So it's density rate is 8k per area sq and that's not including the people who come in during the day from the rest of the city. So I doubt very strongly Mogadishu has 30k density anywhere in the city it would require u to believe it's denser then sydney cbd by 5 times kkkkk in every area sq which is totally fallicious.

Mogadishu density rate is less then 1000 per area sq except in some 'density hotspots' but in residential areas, far less then 1000. But back to land prices look at Sydney CBD, each area SQ is worth 70 million dollars so for 2 area sq km it's worth $130 million.

If u sub-divide that area sq by into 'land plots' of 10 by 10 meters your looking at 70k starting price of wat is essentially just 10 meters of land which is this much land is worth 70k in SYDNEY CBD LOL. If u combine 10 by 10 meter blocks of just 100 meters

That's 100 by 100 Meters or 1 hectare. That wud be worth in Sydney CBD. $1.3 million 'starting' price it won't go for any 'lesser' then that assuming their 'zero demand' which is unlikely. Then it's down to pure 'demand' side increasing so it could end being over-valued to 10 times more then it's real worth as people fight for prime land like Sydney CBD land as it sits on a strong 'GDP' which boosts up it's land value in comparison to your 'futo qaawan' land kkkk

That price could sell for anywhere between 1.3 million being the 'bare minimum' but with population of 5 million sydneysiders and pool of investors it will definitely sell for 10 times it's base value which is great 'profit'

 

[DR OSMAN]

I hate futo qaawans the most in the world. Economists are settled now that land size or resources are not what makes a nation wealthy, it's human capital purely, it's how that population pool uses their resources that indicates far more then the actual size of it's population or land or resource. This is now well established economic fact not a philosophy or else u wud look dumb founded to explain why Singapore that sits on a land and resources of Mogadishu x 7 times only, yet has more wealth and production then the African continent combined together who have 1 billion population and continent size of 30,000 million sq of land while singapore has only population of 5 million and a land size of 727 area sq km which is 7 times the land size of mogadishu or 7 mogadishu area space to work with and population pool of 5 million.

5 million and 727 area sq km of land vs 30 million area sq km of land x billion ppl. U wud think the larger resources and population is automatically got an edge but we see the reverse in singapore vs africa kkkk with 5 million ppl outproducing 1 billion ppl and those 1 billion ppl have land that is 30 million SQ km. It's shocking stuff that has reformed economics to step away from the old style thinking and accept human capital component being the primary factor of wealth

 

[DR OSMAN]

Not all land is equal. When u have 2.8 billion produced on land size of 70,000 SQ KM, that land isn't worth anymore then what it produces, if sub-divided into 1 area sq it's worth literally 45k max and that's assuming production is happening uniformly across the land and not 'contained' just to the river areas. This is assuming every area sq of 70000 is being utilized, if we just calculated it's real land value it's 45k per 1 area sq, how is it possible 1 area sq of sydney cbd is worth 70 million dollars? it's quite simple, the production of that 1 area sq of land in sydney hosts professional sectors and financial services n hospitality industries.

That's why 1 area sq in sydney cbd is 70 million while 1 area sq and those southern farmland is 45k showing a land to wealth difference of extreme porportions and the only difference is 'productivity' showing 'products/goods/services' need to increase for land itself to be valued higher, land valued based on population increases without production increase is pure 'inflation' type of wealth not real wealth at all since the market production is still the same and the futo qaawans only increased, so that land value may increase but it won't be against 'production' but against 'people' and people who are poor and 1 dollar a day wealth increasing in your land is making your land only 'valuable' due to inflation not real 'product wealth'. Hence I urge all you futo qaawans in Somalia do not invest into cities merely due to population demand since population demand requires 'purchasing power' which requires production economy, you don't want your land to be secured against 1 dollar a day at 1 million people rate, that sort of demand side economics is terrible since it's only increasing not due to wealth but FUTO QAAWAN pressures.

 

[DR OSMAN]

That futo qaawan is $1 dollar a day in hamar, so that's purely inflation their land prices due to population demand not real wealth at all. Futo qaawan to me is anyone below 50k a year in his pocket, futadisa ma asturno kkkk waaa iska qaawan yahay dhar kasto ama kastumo kasto haku xiree lakin 'walletkisa' sanadka wa 1 dollar, so becareful of your investments in this highly inflated economy where land shortages vs population demand is their only justification for inflating land prices not that any of those futo qaawans are rich whatsoever, so your land prices in hamar isn't tied to 'gold or usd' dollar increases for that population boom, it's tied simply to land supply shortage and over population hence it's a pure 'ghetto' at best and that land isn't worth anything but fake pricing.

Infact if we assume hamar economy is $1 billion a year which is a 'stretch' in itself since only nation wide imports are only $500 million, but lets assume the 'service' and industry sector which is nation wide producing 40% of GDP, that's a nation wide urban economy of $2.8 billion.

Mogadishu share for 1.5 million population which I dispute as 675k to 1.3 million or somewhere in between there if u take out 'idp component'. That's only still 20-25% of the nation wide urban population of 6 million nation wide.

Their GDP wud be around 25% of 2.8 billion which is $700 million since there is another 4.5 million urban markets in the nation. How is it land prices are worth what they are in mogadishu cuz it's surely not based on their GDP production but purely due to population demand and therefore population demand isn't wealth that can be measured against gold/usd like the old days of 'slavery' unless of course u join the lucrative industry of 'body organs' now that's worth something against USD dollar due to low supply world wide and high demand, very lucrative game if u smart and know how to go about it with only indian doctor expense and refigeration warehouse near a port city is all u need and the rewards are 'tremendous' kkkkkk, u finally pimped this nigga after he died for 'product' cause when he was alive he was a BURDEN to the nation kkkkk due to the slavery markets 'closing down worldwide' we would've exported his ass and kidnapped somalis for export but the export game is still on for 'humans' now u just gotta 'put' his futo qaawan ass into a nice 'organ package' and stamp it 'futo qaawan' 4 export kkkkk. Oh wow I just lost track with this amazing business model, I will be back later to give u real land prices in mogadishu based on GDP worth, if u pay more, you paying for 'inflation' only due to population demand not that it's worth anything more then GDP production of 700 million.

Oh let me just go and envision how my body part game will export thru bosaso port with my refigeration warehouse and indian doctor on 'stand by' when a shabab explosion happens and 'harvesting' season begins kkkkkkk, that's MONEY THERE being buried not on my watch, u can finally 'extract' some 'gdp' from his futo qaawan and measure his organs as products against the USD or GOLD, where-as in the past we could do that with slavery and measure them by usd or gold but it's closed down now but the new modern slave game is on where we just 'package' his organs, thats what happens to unproducive people, they gotta GO niyahow, someone needs to eat and survive. I will be the first osman mahmoud pioneer of this game on 'large plantation scale' in bosaso warehouses

 

[DR OSMAN]

So let's go back hamar economics for $700 million a year GDP assuming 20% ratio of 6 million urbanites nation wide and a total GDP of $2.8 billion. If u sub divide mogadishu land purely based on USD dollar worth, it's no more then then 700k per 'area sq' if u sub-divide that too 100 meter by 100 meter or a football oval it's simply $7000 dollars per football oval or 1 hectare or 100 by 100 meter of land in Mogadishu, that's not including 'inflation' due to overpopulation which isn't real wealth since it's 'ppl' are not 'product' today like the slavery days that can be calculated against gold or usd.

Every land plot in mogadishu real wealth value by 10 by 10 meter is $70 dollars the rest is purely 'inflation' not due to wealth increase but purely due to population increase, so their selling something that is essentially $150 dollars which they inflated to over $50,000 per land plot.

That is some extreme 'fake wealth' only a clown wud purchase 'mogadishu' land kkkkk which is purely $50k of 'fake money' that is 'fake money' if anything is considered fake since it's not tied to gold or usd as measure hence it's totally 'fake' money out of nowhere being bought n sold in mogadishu. That whole market is operating in high inflation areas and selling shit not based on real value but 'population demand' value as the only 'input' kkkkkk supply/demand is only applied after the land is calculated against 'production' of wealth it sits on, supply/demand isn't the first economic measure but purely the 'wealth' in the city first is the measure and then supply/demand is 'second'

 

[DR OSMAN]

The doctor has gone southern accent american on mogadishu $700 million economy and inflated cost of living and land prices tied to pure price hikes above market value. Market value is $150 for each housing plot in mogadihu not $50000 that's inflated prices linked to demand with no consideration to market value