Somalia and Somaliland conflict airspace and E visa dispute and more

moosaid

moosaid

EainA2 said:
I'm seeing rumours that Ethiopian Airlines will accept Somaliland IDs, but I don’t think that’s true. Ethiopia would gain more by siding with the FGS, since passengers avoiding Somalia’s visa would instead fly into Ethiopia, pay for a visa, spend a bit in the local economy, and then cross the border. Mogadishu is far more valuable than Hargeisa, so it would be stupid for Ethiopian Airlines to risk having their license suspended. Somaliland could actually come out on top if they weren’t so emotionally stupid. All they need to do is make a backroom deal with HSM.
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Pastoralist

Pastoralist

Dhib marku wah nokdo, Isku tiirsada
VIP
Hargeisa is a pipeline for terrorist entry into Puntland/somalia, I don’t see why Ethiopia would risk their own flight status integrity to sustain political warfare with Somalia. But Ethiopia is petty and defies international rules at times, so could be wrong.
 
J

Jaffar

Pastoralist said:
Hargeisa is a pipeline for terrorist entry into Puntland/somalia, I don’t see why Ethiopia would risk their own flight status integrity to sustain political warfare with Somalia. But Ethiopia is petty and defies international rules at times, so could be wrong.
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Ethiopia stands to gain from a divided Somalia. In fact, it appears that Addis Ababa would prefer a de facto independent and internationally recognised Somaliland. A unified Somali state does not serve Ethiopia’s strategic interests in the long run


as it is now Somalia is in a weakened position, and Ethiopia refrains from pressing further not out of love but because powerful actors in the West, the East, and the Arab world have made it clear that Somalia must not be interfered with. Ethiopia is, however, one of the few African countries that recognises the Somaliland passport as a valid travel document. In practice, it treats Somaliland as an independent state, albeit without formal acknowledgment.


What is interesting is that Ethiopia cannot officially recognise Somaliland at least not before other nations do so first. To do otherwise would jeopardise Ethiopia’s carefully cultivated influence within Somalia. Addis Ababa seeks to maintain troops on Somali soil, to preserve its political leverage, and to sustain the kind of influence once exercised under General Gabre. Recognising Somaliland’s independence would instantly alienate powerful Somali clans such as the Hawiye and the Darood an outcome Ethiopia is determined to avoid.


Former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi legesee understood this delicate balance. He once remarked, “With Somalis, I am a friend to all and an enemy to none.” His policy was to engage every Somali faction, allowing Ethiopia to manage the broader situation from a position of quiet dominance. Had he formally recognised Somaliland, the resulting backlash from the Hawiye and Darood clans would have turned them both against Ethiopia and by extension, against the Isaaq as well., Hawiye and darood would reconcile to kill and destroy isaaq for breaking away, and Ethiopia woud be on the side of isaaq.


Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s hesitation to finalise the recent MOU can likewise be attributed to intense external pressure. China, Turkey, Egypt, and several Western nations all opposed the move. The West, having invested heavily in rebuilding Somalia, wishes to showcase Mogadishu’s resurgence by leveraging the relative stability of Somaliland and Puntland. China reportedly warned Ethiopia that proceeding with the MOU would cost it its influential seat at the African Union a loss far more consequential than the potential gain of a maritime outlet. Consequently, Abiy chose restraint.


In truth, Ethiopia’s long-term strategy is to ensure that the rift between Somalia and Somaliland endures indefinitely. So long as the two sides can neither unite nor conclusively part ways, Ethiopia remains the ultimate arbiter of their fate. Tragically, this dynamic guarantees that both will continue, for generations to come, playing in the hands of Ethiopia and its interests for the long run., For ethiopia if SL and Somalia were to unite it would threaten their interets and somali galbeed will be fought on ,they know this so they want to keep the two apart, they dont have to do much but they just playig the game.
Also if SL was recognised by ethiopia , Ethiopia would lose its influance now SL needs Ethiopia for diplomacy all the embassies in addis ababa , Ethiopia uses this , so they dont want that. But they also do not want SL to unite wiht somalia and that they treaten the interest of ethiopia. the status quo is fine
 
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