Somali Reconcilation. What Needs Fixing?

[DR OSMAN]

It's obvious to anyone that is an observor of Somali politics, that social/political distrust is very high. Every clan by default thinks if another clan gets power, it will be used against them or at best it will lead to their clan isolation. This is undeniable nation wide. So to resolve this, people have proposed that reconciliation is needed. I agree at this point. A nation of people at each other throats either covertly or overtly, will harm the nation's progress, they will under-cut it at every corner.

The question I pose. What needs reconcilation, is it at the political level or social level or both? If all politicians were to agree today, would this automatically resolve the social issue? or what if the social issue is left un-addressed, will it fester away for another opportunistic leader to exploit or even foreign interference and therefore leading to a never-ending social instability cycle?

People talk a-lot about political stability and they assume if politicians resolve their issue, that the nation will resolve. Politicians do not live on an 'island', they come from the social groups in the nation, So I don't hold onto that philosophy that a few 'men' can resolve Somalia problem, the un-addressed social issue will give any present/future politician routes to exploit.

Now what mode of reconcilation needs to be taken, home-grown(erigavo) or foreign(rwanda, south africa or a mix? What will the 'theme' be? Pre-Colonial Reconcilation commitees to deal with pre-colonial clan matters? Colonial Era reconcilation commitees to deal with clan matters in that era. The civilian govt era reconcilation to deal with that era of clan conflict. Siyad Barre reconcilation commitee to deal with that era of clan conflict. Finally Post 91 reconcilation commitee to deal with that clan conflict era.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I am of the philosopy that reconcilation needs to happen at the social layer, if the social layer is sick, this can allow any politician to exploit, but if it's healthy, it can only lead to healthy politicians emerging working constructively not destructively.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I am strongly against establishing a legal architecture based on the rule of law untill Social/Political reconcilation has been achieved or else they will rott/decay the system from within. So yes I support a society to be based on the rule of law, but lets not rush here untill we fix social-political layer.

 

[Chase]

Mogadishu should not be the Capital, in fact, there should not be any Capital. If HAG want to be an AMISON colony for the next century, let them. We have to devise new ways and ideas to decouple Puntland from this system, if any other clan wants to stay aboard this sinking ship we call Somalia, then so be it.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Mogadishu should not be the Capital, in fact, there should not be any Capital. If HAG want to be an AMISON colony for the next century, let them. We have to devise new ways and ideas to decouple Puntland from this system, if any other clan wants to stay aboard this sinking ship we call Somalia, then so be it.

Unfortunately the old dinosaurs are not 'creative', they assume the nation can't resolve if Mogadishu is unresolved. The new generation however are starting to realize, rather then make 1 city a national problem, isolate that 1 city to a 'regional' context and let the other parts move forward and they argue it's even better for mogadishu as the other parts can come back later stronger to save them.

 

[Chase]

Unfortunately the old dinosaurs are not 'creative', they assume the nation can't resolve if Mogadishu is unresolved. The new generation however are starting to realize, rather then make 1 city a national problem, isolate that 1 city to a 'regional' context and let the other parts move forward and they argue it's even better for mogadishu as the other parts can come back later stronger to save them.

I've come to the realisation that the Puntland elite are our enemies, not deliberately of course, but they are an obstacle of progress to our generation. Xamar is gone, I simply don't understand why the top brass in Garowe can't seem to grasp this concept, they are holding us back.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I've come to the realisation that the Puntland elite are our enemies, not deliberately of course, but they are an obstacle of progress to our generation. Xamar is gone, I simply don't understand why the top brass in Garowe can't seem to grasp this concept, they are holding us back.

I don't blame the southies as much as I blame Puntland. 91-98 all we did was adopt an idle posture, the worst posture to adopt becuz it leads to nothingness, no success, no failure, pure nothingness, which leads to regrets. Ironically we are repeating that same idle posture since 2009-2023.

I always tell leaders 'make a move' either it's successful and u can rejoice or it fails and we can all learn, but god dammit don't adopt an 'idle or no move posture' this leads to regrets only.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I've come to the realisation that the Puntland elite are our enemies, not deliberately of course, but they are an obstacle of progress to our generation. Xamar is gone, I simply don't understand why the top brass in Garowe can't seem to grasp this concept, they are holding us back.

We can adopt the hong kong treaty with the SFG for 100 years. We can even adopt the sudan model(west, south was burning) but the North was functioning. 1 city shouldn't hold 90 districts hostage, it's pure madness.

 

[Chase]

We can adopt the hong kong treaty with the SFG for 100 years. We can even adopt the sudan model(west, south was burning) but the North was functioning. 1 city shouldn't hold 90 districts hostage, it's pure madness.

We literally don't even have a foreign policy, at least in the Kacaan era Somalis used to protect and advance their interests and concerns. Abdullahi Yusuf, Aideed, Barre, Morgan, etc. They were educated statesmen and excellent diplomats, whatever we have going on today is a clown show, somehow Somalis have REGRESSED. I truly believe the 'golden' generation (flawed) was only thanks to the colonialists education/military system, the fact of the matter is Somalia's post independence political elite lauded by the West as Africa's 'Switzerland' was thanks to the Italians and British, it is what it is.

 

[DR OSMAN]

We literally don't even have a foreign policy, at least in the Kacaan era Somalis used to protect and advance their interests and concerns. Abdullahi Yusuf, Aideed, Barre, Morgan, etc. They were educated statesmen and excellent diplomats, whatever we have going on today is a clown show, somehow Somalis have REGRESSED. I truly believe the 'golden' generation (flawed) was only thanks to the colonialists education/military system, the fact of the matter is Somalia's post independence political elite lauded by the West as Africa's 'Switzerland' was thanks to the Italians and British, it is what it is.

We did gain a wealth of experience in a short time-span 1960-1991.

1. Free-Market Capitalism economic structures 1960-1969
2. Communist structures 1969-1991
3. Black Market Economics post 91 till today

That alone can guide us to select the best economic development system by collecting the positives of each and creating a more robust model.

Our foreign policy experience is pretty strong

1. We maintained historical/cultural/religious nations
2. We would grade our trade partners on importance(knowledge transfer vs bagaash vs machinery)
3. We kept a continental policy due to location
4. We threw our cards with the USSR in the cold-war geopolitical order and LOST
5. We developed the strongest military in Africa

Areas we need to add now is to craft the past policy stance and begin assessing the gains/losses from a neutral position like oman has mastered to survive global changes. We need to get outside our comfort zone of established foreign policy partners (mid-east, africa, china, russia, west). We need to decide if were with the free world vs the non free world or neutral.

We need to end this 'trade' mentality in security domain and embrace being the 'knowledge' domain on the continent for security, so we can develop our own ''security weapons' not be held hostage to trade partner.

 

[Chase]

We did gain a wealth of experience in a short time-span 1960-1991.

1. Free-Market Capitalism economic structures 1960-1969
2. Communist structures 1969-1991
3. Black Market Economics post 91 till today

That alone can guide us to select the best economic development system by collecting the positives of each and creating a more robust model.

Our foreign policy experience is pretty strong

1. We maintained historical/cultural/religious nations
2. We would grade our trade partners on importance(knowledge transfer vs bagaash vs machinery)
3. We kept a continental policy due to location
4. We threw our cards with the USSR in the cold-war geopolitical order and LOST
5. We developed the strongest military in Africa

Areas we need to add now is to craft the past policy stance and begin assessing the gains/losses from a neutral position like oman has mastered to survive global changes. We need to get outside our comfort zone of established foreign policy partners (mid-east, africa, china, russia, west). We need to decide if were with the free world vs the non free world or neutral.

We need to end this 'trade' mentality in security domain and embrace being the 'knowledge' domain on the continent for security, so we can develop our own ''security weapons' not be held hostage to trade partner.

I don't think you understand what I was trying to get at Doc, what I'm saying is this, it's over.

All the experienced men of that era are either dead or on their death beds, there has been no transfer of knowledge/experience to the next of kin, hence the dysfunction we see today. We will NEVER get back to that level of competence, ever.

Somalia is dead, it's a rouge entity merely tolerated by the world as a anarchist hell-hole masquerading as a 'democratic' leaning state, we can't even produce our own food, let alone build a productive economy. Everything of value is imported, meanwhile all raw resources are being exported to the dime, this model is simply unworkable. I believe the next phase due for Somalia is cheap resources to be exploited by the world economy, nothing of value is created or produced in Somalia, other than frankincense if we want to go there.

Hell Djibouti already fills the role of a maritime base on the red sea for the world economy, something we could have leveraged if we weren't backwards, let's just call a spade for what it is, it's over. Somalia will remain a fourth tier outpost guarded by International forces who will loot everything as they see fit, they're already setting up an illicit organ trade right IN Xamar, HAG destroyed Somalia.

If it was up to me in the 90s, I would've pushed these Hutu out of Mudug and declare de-facto independence denouncing Mogadishu as the Capital, Abduallhi Yusuf put us in this predicament, something he even alluded to before his passing AUN, it's high time we accept this.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I don't think you understand what I was trying to get at Doc, what I'm saying is this, it's over.

All the experienced men of that era are either dead or on their death beds, there has been no transfer of knowledge/experience to the next of kin, hence the dysfunction we see today. We will NEVER get back to that level of competence, ever.

Somalia is dead, it's a rouge entity merely tolerated by the world as a anarchist hell-hole masquerading as a 'democratic' leaning state, we can't even produce our own food, let alone build a productive economy. Everything of value is imported, meanwhile all raw resources are being exported to the dime, this model is simply unworkable. I believe the next phase due for Somalia is cheap resources to be exploited by the world economy, nothing of value is created or produced in Somalia, other than frankincense if we want to go there.

Hell Djibouti already fills the role of a maritime base on the red sea for the world economy, something we could have leveraged if we weren't backwards, let's just call a spade for what it is, it's over. Somalia will remain a fourth tier outpost guarded by International forces who will loot everything as they see fit, they're already setting up an illicit organ trade right IN Xamar, HAG destroyed Somalia.

If it was up to me in the 90s, I would've pushed these Hutu out of Mudug and declare de-facto independence denouncing Mogadishu as the Capital, Abduallhi Yusuf put us in this predicament, something he even alluded to before his passing AUN, it's high time we accept this.

That's why I Sit by and listen 'intentively' to Morgan, Yey, Siyad, or people older that remember the SYL generation. I try to milk as much institutional memory. We should bring them all back and host all clans across the golden generation in PL and even pay them to stay with us, so we MILK IT for ourselves