Who do you think is going to win the presidential election in Somalia and why?
Put aside your biases and explain your reasoning.
Put aside your biases and explain your reasoning.
Somali Elections 2021
- Thread starter Unionist1960
- Start date
I believe Farmaajo will get re-elected.
The opposition has not consolidated and is unorganized. Farmaajo's tenure has been rather successful in that government has become more efficient, the military has become stronger, Somali air space is now under Somali control, our national debt has been forgiven etc.
Can you imagine if we have another 4 years of progress?
The opposition has not consolidated and is unorganized. Farmaajo's tenure has been rather successful in that government has become more efficient, the military has become stronger, Somali air space is now under Somali control, our national debt has been forgiven etc.
Can you imagine if we have another 4 years of progress?
Lets make hybrid. deni as president and mr.cheese for vice president.
I asked who you think will win and why you think that.
I will give my non-biased opinion,
Right now Somalia's election is based on who has Federal State, because having a Federal state garantuees candidates of the same Qabiil state to garner support from it, so far qabiils with Federal State are below in the map;
And the Candidates for Somalia Presidential elections are:
Abdinuur Xawaadle- Hirshabelle
Deni MJ- Puntland
Farmaajo the incumbent President with no Clan-State of its own, he purely sits on Somalia's Presidency by chance.
Guuleed and AAW both are HGs - Galmudug
Shariif, HSM and Dahir Geele all Abgaal - Hirshabelle
Shariif sakiin an D&M- Koonfur Galbeed
So far the election votes is heading this way, every clan states are supporting their clansmen.
The last 3 candidates will be Guuled, Farmaajo and Deni, and since Somalia is based on Hawiye & Darood powersharing the 2 Darood candidates Deni and Farmaajo need to do dealing with Guuled for either PM or President powersharing.
Simply Any other candidates without a clan state is automatically disqualified./
Right now Somalia's election is based on who has Federal State, because having a Federal state garantuees candidates of the same Qabiil state to garner support from it, so far qabiils with Federal State are below in the map;
And the Candidates for Somalia Presidential elections are:
Abdinuur Xawaadle- Hirshabelle
Deni MJ- Puntland
Farmaajo the incumbent President with no Clan-State of its own, he purely sits on Somalia's Presidency by chance.
Guuleed and AAW both are HGs - Galmudug
Shariif, HSM and Dahir Geele all Abgaal - Hirshabelle
Shariif sakiin an D&M- Koonfur Galbeed
So far the election votes is heading this way, every clan states are supporting their clansmen.
| Candidates | Senators |
|---|---|
| Deni | 14 (11PL) (3JL) |
| Rooble | 11 SL |
| Farmaajo | 8 KG+ 1 GM |
| Abdikarim Gulled | 7 GM |
| Ahmed madobe | 5 JL |
| Hassan Sh Mahmoud | 1 JL |
| Total seats | 44/54 , Somaliland is left over but since last Saturday election Rooble took over Somaliland Committee expelling both Mahdi guuleed and Abdi Hashi |
The last 3 candidates will be Guuled, Farmaajo and Deni, and since Somalia is based on Hawiye & Darood powersharing the 2 Darood candidates Deni and Farmaajo need to do dealing with Guuled for either PM or President powersharing.
Simply Any other candidates without a clan state is automatically disqualified./
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If what @Bariire says is true about elections being based on which qabiils holds a state.
Then let our future presidents be any qabiil without a state in their name.
Let reer xamar, bantu, leelkase, barawaani, dir etc. lead.
Then they'll have no bias towards any state, if that is what your argument is.
Then let our future presidents be any qabiil without a state in their name.
Let reer xamar, bantu, leelkase, barawaani, dir etc. lead.
Then they'll have no bias towards any state, if that is what your argument is.
Farmaajo doesn’t have a state.
Yeah but he's debatable in that his qabiil is still politically relevant.
Regardless, he's winning this election but for the next one, they should make sure no powerful qabiil touches the presidency.
I am MJ but I know any president from my qabiil will biased towards PL which is not what a president of Somalia should do. A president from a smaller qabiil would not have the same biases as an Isaaq, MJ, HG, Xawaadle, OG or even MX president.
That will be the easiest way to prevent the qabyalaad infighting.
You believe Farmaajo might win? Why?
Read this thread, I agree with its points on Farmaajo's almost certain re-election.
The Somali election is about money and Farmaajo has too much of it.
@Dalalos_ibn_Adali is right The next President is Darood Deni or Farmaajo with HG PM, if Hawiye candidates don't back HG President than waa bilahi Towfiiq we HG/Galmudug will vote for the either of the 2 above for the PM seat.
We HG/Galmudug want presidency or else its kamikaze for the PM seat.
We HG/Galmudug want presidency or else its kamikaze for the PM seat.
Somalia is more than few clans drawn up on photoshop maps, we are millions of people who are individuals with our own thoughts and political views. This is why we must stop entertaining qabiil politics that favor corruption and embrace universal suffrage for all. That is the only answer that will work and solve our political problems 
We dont care about bias for a state its disdain and sabatoge for the federal system which is our problem. We dont want any stateless clan to ever have the presidency again.
It’s either we incentivise Somalis to settle in different gobols to break up clan areas or we make sure one clan cannot hold both a state and presidency.
It’s either that or Somalia will remain mired in clannist infighting.
At what point will you put your nation’s progress over qabyalaad.
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What about your nation makes it necessary for me to throw my clan under the bus or the clan next door?
Why should Xawaadle have to depose their state president mid-term? Why should Ogadens be expected to give up their home state for Ethiophiles? Why should Puntland give itself over to the fed.? Why should Koonfur Galbeed have its leaders picked for them? Why should Northern seats be picked by southerners?
This “Nation” is the amalgamation of all clans, demonizing the idea of “clans” and their freedoms/rights from one another is nothing more then sabatoging the Somali people for the sake of a few clans benefit.
At what point will you put your Nations progress and peoples freedoms over your obsession of power?
You can’t have supremacy and a functioning nation-state. One has got to give.
The establishment or re-establishment of a nation-state requires sacrifices from its stakeholders. 4.5 and Somali federalism is a system that keeps the biggest clans happy but the only sacrifice is made by smaller clans.
Qabiil is nothing at the end of the day. It is not religion or ethnicity but rather weak or dubious familial links. Someone in Bosasso or Garowe is my 200th cousin at best.
What you need to consider is whether your 200th cousin is actually family or just another Somali.
Will you invite them to your birthday party?
If the answer is no, then the concept of clan becomes irrelevant.
Realistically, Somalia should be the most harmonious or equitable society in Africa yet it’s the most divided.
When you ponder on that and the reasons for it, everything becomes clearer.
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