It’s defo a gamble. Also there’s a funding conference soon for SNA post ATMIS withdrawal. Probably wants this promised earlierI don't understand what the plan is here. SNA is not yet ready to replace Amisom at the job of holding territory. It is hard to imagine that the SNA will be able to hold Lower Shabelle on its own by next year.
It seems Culusow wants to put the Security Council's feet to the fire later this year and have them lift the weapons embargo. That can explain rushing the already rushed Amisom withdrawal. If this is the case, Culusow has much more confidence in the SNA than I do.
This is a huge gamble, and the chance that it succeeds is imo below 50%. Very risky.
Great News.
Nooooo not halaneDid the somalia goverment finally gain a backbone?? Next is to kick out those in halane
Inshallah it goes well. I respect HSM for this decision. Atmis will be leaving soon and having their funding cut, if we can’t fight Al Shabab on our own at this point then f*ck it, we lose the country. This is a do or die moment now. Good luck to my hu2s and southern somalians.
I don’t think that the risks of a full & speedy Amisom withdrawal have been explained to the people. Culusow should level with the people on his gamble.
This strategy raises the likelihood of an outcome similar to that in Afghanistan. Why people have faith in the SNA’s ability to replace Amisom, I will never know. The SNA is not ready, this is a fact. The only explanation is that Culusow thinks the Macawiisley/clans will rise to the occasion. If Abgaal are struggling, D&M are unlikely to succeed. Baydhabo, with a population close to 1 million now, may fall to Alshabab.
Huge gamble, massive. I give it a 33% chance.
I don't understand what the plan is here. SNA is not yet ready to replace Amisom at the job of holding territory. It is hard to imagine that the SNA will be able to hold Lower Shabelle on its own by next year.
It seems Culusow wants to put the Security Council's feet to the fire later this year and have them lift the weapons embargo. That can explain rushing the already rushed Amisom withdrawal. If this is the case, Culusow has much more confidence in the SNA than I do.
This is a huge gamble, and the chance that it succeeds is imo below 50%. Very risky.