Serious question about Al Shabab and why some groups allow their territory to be annexed by them

Farm

VIP
While I was reading Harun Maruf’s new book, I began to wonder why when my town of Garacad was attacked by Al Shabab in 2016 they were completely destroyed and rejected unlike other parts of the former Somalia, it was also the first and only time Al Shabab admitted defeat.

On March 14, 2016, the group attempted an audacious seaborne attack on the coast of Puntland, using six repurposed fishing boats and about seven hundred men.

The force left the seaside town of Hobley in two convoys, with two boats carrying 250 fighters, and four boats carrying the other 450. They sailed north for a spot on the Puntland coast


From that point on, the mission was a disaster. The men in the lead convoy landed and trekked into the strategic Suuj Valley but were attacked by Puntland government forces. The militants who landed in Gara’ad tried to slip into the jungle and make their way north to rejoin their comrades but were also ambushed by Puntland forces. The following week, officials declared victory over both groups of fighters. Casualties in the Suuj group were said to be 167 militants killed, 100 captured; in the Gara’ad group, 115 dead, 110 taken captive.


Out of 700 militants less than 30 managed to escape alive.

A senior Puntland military commander said that less than thirty militants escaped,

Source: Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally by Harun Maruf



To make things more interesting these were the same fighters who massacred 200 Kenyan soldiers a few months earlier.

Most of the young fighters are also dressed in combat fatigues, some with small-sized T-shirts underneath. Investigators believe, CNN is told, that these combat fatigues were stolen, along with weapons, artillery and ammunition from African Union troops.

The young fighters have admitted to being part of previous Al-Shabaab attacks, such as a recent deadly attack on a Kenyan African Union base in southern Somalia. Some of the boys say many more like them are in the Al-Shabaab ranks.


https://www-m.cnn.com/2016/03/31/africa/al-shabaab-child-soldiers/index.html?r=https://www.google.ca/

So the questions are why do some communities tolerate Al Shabab on their territory while others don’t? Currently Shabab is stuck in the mountains in PL due to the fact they can’t hold any territory... will the rest of the former Somalia manage to do the same or will Shabab control the south until the end of times?

@Abdalla @Reiko @Karim @Armadillo @Ugaaso @Cabdi @PuntiteQueen @GBTarmy @Reer-Bari @Poets @Boqor Quark Boqor Cisman @Crow @Manzana @Tukraq @DR OSMAN @Tjioux
 
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DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
While I was reading Harun Maruf’s new book, I began to wonder why when my town of Garacad was attacked by Al Shabab in 2016 they were completely destroyed and rejected unlike other parts of the former Somalia, it was also the first and only time Al Shabab admitted defeat.









Out of 700 militants only 30 managed to escape alive.



Source: Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally by Harun Maruf



To make things more interesting these were the same fighters who massacred 200 Kenyan soldiers a few months earlier.






https://www-m.cnn.com/2016/03/31/africa/al-shabaab-child-soldiers/index.html?r=https://www.google.ca/

So the questions are why do some communities tolerate Al Shabab on their territory while others don’t? Currently Shabab is stuck in the mountains in PL due to the fact they can’t hold any territory... will the rest of the former Somalia manage to do the same or will Shabab control the south until the end of times?

@Abdalla @Reiko @Karim @Armadillo @Ugaaso @Cabdi @PuntiteQueen @GBTarmy @Reer-Bari @Poets @Boqor Quark Boqor Cisman @Crow @Manzana @Tukraq @DR OSMAN @Tjioux

The most likely reason is the people in the south are disunited and shabab takes advantage and fills the vaccuum. They can muster 500 boys on each town in the south, if those towns cannot respond with 500 boys due to division, hatred, tribal animosity, of course they will be captured and controlled. The key to shabab success is to operate in places of disunity.

Sool for example would be a great hunting ground for them if it wasn't for PL/SL already present there and one of the reason holding PL back is not to allow shabab take advantage of the disunity in those community and establish 'cells' like they do in the south.
 

DR OSMAN

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VIP
@Farm think of this way when clans are disunited and cannot work together for the interest of their villages, towns, or state. What happens is shabab walks in and see's an easy take over with little resistance. So the clans then just sit there and allow it to happen and then join shabab as shabab now begins to be seen as middle man for the 'warring' communities of the south. Each town in the south you will find the same narrative of disunity, no political settlement, no cooperation till they solve that which can only be solved by themselves at a 'grass root' level like Puntland did in 98, their future is bleak. Even if shabab leaves some other project will enter and establish a cell.
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
I also suspect it's better having a big state with multiple tribes then a 'clan' state. The reason being, the last thing we want is competition to become 'internal' like Galmudug which is primarily Habar Gedir. Where as JL is very well balanced with Ogaden and Marehan and Harti in the 'heart' of Kismayo. This allows for 'devolution' of power. The Harti using their economic power. Ogaden using their 'man power' and Marehan using their opposition power. Where-as In Galmudug the competition and division will happen at the Habar Gedir level because there is no-one else to pose a challenge. Hobyo is controlled by them which will be their future economical leverage. The capital is controlled by them. The population power is controlled by them. So obviously the conflict will be within Habar Gedir. To unite clans you need to put them in a state where there is a good balance of an opposing clan.

One of the reasons Puntland isn't working is they concentrated everything into Majerten Side of Puntland and should've of expanded into Sool/Sanaag and devolved power into those regions in order to keep Majerten united. I for one don't think the capital should've of been Garowe. It should've been assigned to To either SSC or Makhir.

I hope these dumb sade use their opposition power smartly and ask Jubaland not to assign their capital to 'buale' which is an Ogaden strong-hold and negotiate for a Garbaharey Capital while Kismayo remains a business capital. This would be fair since the president would remain Ogaden.

The business capital will be Kismaayo and kept separate from the political capital(so something like Mogadishu doesn't ever happen to it).
 

Farm

VIP
I also suspect it's better having a big state with multiple tribes then a 'clan' state. The reason being, the last thing we want is competition to become 'internal' like Galmudug which is primarily Habar Gedir. Where as JL is very well balanced with Ogaden and Marehan and Harti in the 'heart' of Kismayo. This allows for 'devolution' of power. The Harti using their economic power. Ogaden using their 'man power' and Marehan using their opposition power. Where-as In Galmudug the competition and division will happen at the Habar Gedir level because there is no-one else to pose a challenge. Hobyo is controlled by them which will be their future economical leverage. The capital is controlled by them. The population power is controlled by them. So obviously the conflict will be within Habar Gedir. To unite clans you need to put them in a state where there is a good balance of an opposing clan.

One of the reasons Puntland isn't working is they concentrated everything into Majerten Side of Puntland and should've of expanded into Sool/Sanaag and devolved power into those regions in order to keep Majerten united. I for one don't think the capital should've of been Garowe. It should've been assigned to To either SSC or Makhir.

I hope these dumb sade use their opposition power smartly and ask Jubaland not to assign their capital to 'buale' which is an Ogaden strong-hold and negotiate for a Garbaharey Capital while Kismayo remains a business capital. This would be fair since the president would remain Ogaden.

The business capital will be Kismaayo and kept separate from the political capital(so something like Mogadishu doesn't ever happen to it).

Puntland is the most united state, I don’t really agree with what you are saying. JL is barely a state and look at HS which is divided by Xawaadle and Abgaal and it doesn’t function, also your proposal of Sool holding our capital would have been a disaster it would be apart of SL today.
 

DR OSMAN

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VIP
Puntland is the most united state, I don’t really agree with what you are saying. JL is barely a state and look at HS which is divided by Xawaadle and Abgaal and it doesn’t function, also your proposal of Sool holding our capital would have been a disaster it would be apart of SL today.

That's exactly what Ajuuran did. Invested everything into their side of the South while the hinterland Hawiye had nothing and were similar to sool/sanaag. Guess what happened? Ajuuran died out. What if Hawiye attacks and wipes out Majerten one day? Harti will become a minority because we invested everything into the majerten side. It's not good planning. Similar to what happened to Somalia, all Somalis collapsed when Mogadishu collapsed. Highly centralized states even at a federal region level is not a good idea.

We need to think where else will Majerten or the wider arhti survive in the advent of a mass genocide like that happened to Ajuuraan? Where can we regroup so we don't become like Ajuuran. We need state planners who think beyond their clan sxb. The last thing I want is Harti as a whole being known as Ajuuraan in 500 years time because of our lack of foresight because we can't think beyond 'majerten' level. That's exactly how ajuuran was, they couldn't think beyond Ajuuran level and look at them today. Whatever was left of their people has been assimilated into Oromo or Madows. To the point where they get burned alive in Mogadishu for even daring to marry an 'abgaal' woman.

That could be us or anyone who doesn't plan well for their future. One of the reasons a clan is successful in Somalia is due to what our 'awoowe' handed to us, but let's not ruin it with poor planning. Anyone can become an ajuuran, no clan is immune.
 
Most of them are from bay and bakol those eelaay are such weak and illiterate people, if I had nuke I wouldn’t hesitate to drop it in their jungle towns.
 

SomaliWadaniSoldier

When will Xaarmaajo stop fearing Abiy?
Interahamwe
VIP
The same can be said about why AS failed to capture C**Y*R towns in Galgaduud.
Once a clan is united , terrorists cannot infiltrate them.

In Mogadishu u have braindead communities from Ceelbuur and Bakool. If u tell them blow urself up in ur parents house for a place in Paradise, they will do it.
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
The same can be said about why AS failed to capture C**Y*R towns in Galgaduud.
Once a clan is united , terrorists cannot infiltrate them.

That's why they can't control Habar Gedir Areas, they operate thru 'dumasho' similar to Puntland, hiding in mountains. Your right, it's due to the unity. They are nowhere near any place with a road for habar gedir to come and clean them up. Dhusomareeb- Cadaado-South Galkayo. They operate in far remote areas like Hobyo which is hard to access but since that road was done, see how they left now. The only place they operate is harardheere due to no road, once a road done, way iska cararayan. The one thing that stops them the most is a united clan.
 

World

VIP
The most likely reason is the people in the south are disunited and shabab takes advantage and fills the vaccuum. They can muster 500 boys on each town in the south, if those towns cannot respond with 500 boys due to division, hatred, tribal animosity, of course they will be captured and controlled. The key to shabab success is to operate in places of disunity.

Sool for example would be a great hunting ground for them if it wasn't for PL/SL already present there and one of the reason holding PL back is not to allow shabab take advantage of the disunity in those community and establish 'cells' like they do in the south.
Go f*ck yourself. No terrorist group has ever set foot into Sool before. Whereas they have bases in Bari and Sanaag and have operated there for well over 10 years. You d*habacyos need to stop your fucking obsession with Dhulbahante, the biggest terrorists in Puntland are your Cali Saleeban cousins and most of the people(unfortunately) who have died fighting against ISIS have been Naleye Ahmed, Dhulbahante.
 

Reer-Bari

COMMANDER OF THE PUNTLAND DEFENCE TEAM
Go f*ck yourself. No terrorist group has ever set foot into Sool before. Whereas they have bases in Bari and Sanaag and have operated there for well over 10 years. You d*habacyos need to stop your fucking obsession with Dhulbahante, the biggest terrorists in Puntland are your Cali Saleeban cousins and most of the people(unfortunately) who have died fighting against ISIS have been Naleye Ahmed, Dhulbahante.
get out of here you coward. isis is about 50 men stuck in the mountain top. they cant even step foot in qandala. qandala is controlled by the puntland marines. our armed forced has these cowards running around in mountains.
 

Reer-Bari

COMMANDER OF THE PUNTLAND DEFENCE TEAM
Go f*ck yourself. No terrorist group has ever set foot into Sool before. Whereas they have bases in Bari and Sanaag and have operated there for well over 10 years. You d*habacyos need to stop your fucking obsession with Dhulbahante, the biggest terrorists in Puntland are your Cali Saleeban cousins and most of the people(unfortunately) who have died fighting against ISIS have been Naleye Ahmed, Dhulbahante.
you been buying into this dr osman propaganda. terrorists consist of broke tribes who fight not for ideology but for money. cali saleebaan are well off and dont need to involve themselves with filth. mj is one in puntland stop trying to cause division it wont work.
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
you been buying into this dr osman propaganda. terrorists consist of broke tribes who fight not for ideology but for money. cali saleebaan are well off and dont need to involve themselves with filth. mj is one in puntland stop trying to cause division it wont work.

The other common thing about the terrorist is, they like disunited clans, because they can just walk in without much resistance and serve as 'middle' man for them while he uses one against the other to keep them subdued.

Where-as In united areas they prefer remote areas that cannot be accessed easily like qandala mountains, sanaag mountains, etc. For example they operate in harardheere in galmudug, cause there is no road there.

They were also in Hobyo till the road was done because they ran for their lives when HG marched in. So the best way to end terrorism in Puntland is to create 'roads' into the mountain, walahi they will no longer stay in Puntland. Even a dirt road will be sufficient for those areas as their isn't much traffic that will use the road anyway plus it will give PL forces access to the mountain areas to begin operations.
 

Reer-Bari

COMMANDER OF THE PUNTLAND DEFENCE TEAM
The other common thing about the terrorist is, they like disunited clans, because they can just walk in without much resistance and serve as 'middle' man for them while he uses one against the other to keep them subdued.

Where-as In united areas they prefer remote areas that cannot be accessed easily like qandala mountains, sanaag mountains, etc. For example they operate in harardheere in galmudug, cause there is no road there.

They were also in Hobyo till the road was done because they ran for their lives when HG marched in. So the best way to end terrorism in Puntland is to create 'roads' into the mountain, walahi they will no longer stay in Puntland.
dr osman. you see all this time you were talking shit about cali saleebaan. now our enemies like @World will use this fake news against us. walahi calisaleebaan kicked isis out of qandala and cant even step foot there. walahi its so safe that a american guy spend over two weeks there about 6 months ago. he was there to do a study on fishing and the tuna can factory build by siad barre. he went there with no security. walahi. my uncle took him there in his car. they are childhood best friends and he came here because my unce has been planting seeds in his head for years. stop lying about cali saleebaan. pls brother we are all puntlanders. enemies like this will use this fake news to create disunity.
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
dr osman. you see all this time you were talking shit about cali saleebaan. now our enemies like @World will use this fake news against us. walahi calisaleebaan kicked isis out of qandala and cant even step foot there. walahi its so safe that a american guy spend over two weeks there about 6 months ago. he was there to do a study on fishing and the tuna can factory build by siad barre. he went there with no security. walahi. my uncle took him there in his car. they are childhood best friends and he came here because my unce has been planting seeds in his head for years. stop lying about cali saleebaan. pls brother we are all puntlanders. enemies like this will use this fake news to create disunity.

I never said the terrorists operate in any village or town in Qandala. I thought it was common knowledge when I say Qandala, I am referring to the remote mountains. That is a fact, they are there and they need to be flushed out immediately.
 
get out of here you coward. isis is about 50 men stuck in the mountain top. they cant even step foot in qandala. qandala is controlled by the puntland marines. our armed forced has these cowards running around in mountains.
these people are obsessed with CS, ISIS is not even a problem Alshabab is a much bigger issue with foreigners/shisheeye clans hiding in our land.
 

World

VIP
you been buying into this dr osman propaganda. terrorists consist of broke tribes who fight not for ideology but for money. cali saleebaan are well off and dont need to involve themselves with filth. mj is one in puntland stop trying to cause division it wont work.
If MJ was one, then Cali Saleeban wouldn’t have assassinated Ali Sharmake.

@DR OSMAN the terrorists are your kin, and if not then it’s other habar majerteeen. There has never been a terrorist from Sool, over 20 Naleye Ahmed died fighting against Cali Saleeban terrorists in the terrorist attack of summer of 2017 in Galgala.
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
If MJ was one, then Cali Saleeban wouldn’t have assassinated Ali Sharmake.

@DR OSMAN the terrorists are your kin, and if not then it’s other habar majerteeen. There has never been a terrorist from Sool, over 20 Naleye Ahmed died fighting against Cali Saleeban terrorists in the terrorist attack of summer of 2017 in Galgala.

There is 2 terrorist camp. One is Galgala which is run by Isaaq. Where they source their foot soldiers I don't know. Some reports say from the south, some say locally, some say both. I would say the bulk is from the south in terms of 'foot soldiers' in particularly rahanwayn, with a few locals involved at the top level in key positions.

That's my best guess. The other cell is Qandala mountains. Now that is 20 boys and not a big deal, where-as galgala is around 200-300 estimated. The key thing to remember is, if their so strong, they wouldn't be in the mountains or carrying out hit n run attacks similar to how crushed they are in mogadishu by amisom, they revert to hit n runs. In PL they do the same because of the superior strength of puntland military.
 

Reer-Bari

COMMANDER OF THE PUNTLAND DEFENCE TEAM
If MJ was one, then Cali Saleeban wouldn’t have assassinated Ali Sharmake.

@DR OSMAN the terrorists are your kin, and if not then it’s other habar majerteeen. There has never been a terrorist from Sool, over 20 Naleye Ahmed died fighting against Cali Saleeban terrorists in the terrorist attack of summer of 2017 in Galgala.
lol there is not a single calisaleeban in galgala idiot they are only in isis and they are a few outcast losers who got disowned by their tribe, lol your fake news wont pass here. galgala terrorist are trained and their wounded are treated in burco. im pretty sure thts dulbahante city
 

SomaliWadaniSoldier

When will Xaarmaajo stop fearing Abiy?
Interahamwe
VIP
Go f*ck yourself. No terrorist group has ever set foot into Sool before. Whereas they have bases in Bari and Sanaag and have operated there for well over 10 years. You d*habacyos need to stop your fucking obsession with Dhulbahante, the biggest terrorists in Puntland are your Cali Saleeban cousins and most of the people(unfortunately) who have died fighting against ISIS have been Naleye Ahmed, Dhulbahante.
:deadrose: the brotherhood is real :cosbyhmm:
 

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