Reer Sanaag want to increase their representation in PL
- Thread starter Chaseyourdreamzz
- Start date
@The Oponian Guild me chating with chat GPT
about the great general Morgan 
For General Mohamed Saeed Morgan—a controversial figure from the Barre regime—to win the Somali Civil War and capture Mogadishu, a lot would have needed to go differently. Below is a plausible alternate scenario built around a narrow window of opportunity between 1998 and 2003, when warlordism was dominant and Islamists had not yet consolidated.
Scenario: “The Return of the Military State”
Core Assumptions:
1. Morgan consolidates Jubaland faster and avoids the 1999 defeat by the JVA.
2. Puntland forms a military alliance with Morgan under Abdullahi Yusuf.
3. Ethiopia provides covert or overt backing to Morgan to counter Islamist and Hawiye dominance in central/southern Somalia.
4. Southern warlords remain fragmented and fail to unite under the TNG (formed in 2000).
Step-by-Step Breakdown
1998–2000: Consolidation of Power in Jubaland
• Instead of being expelled from Kismayo in 1999, Morgan crushes the JVA early.
• He secures Kenyan logistical support and reopens port trade routes.
• Builds a semi-professional army using:
• Ex-Barre regime officers
• Darod clan militias (especially Ogaden, Marehan, and Majeerteen fighters)
• Mercenaries or trainers from Ethiopia or Eritrea
2001–2003: Formation of a Military Coalition
• Puntland, under Abdullahi Yusuf, recognizes Morgan’s control of Jubaland and signs a Mutual Defense Pact.
• This “Darod Axis” pools resources:
• Puntland contributes stability and administrative experience.
• Jubaland provides manpower and port access.
• Ethiopia provides arms and intelligence, viewing Morgan as a secular bulwark against the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and Hawiye militias.
2003–2004: Offensive Toward Mogadishu
• Using Kismayo as a southern base and Bosaso as a supply hub, Morgan launches a multi-pronged military campaign:
• Advances through Baidoa and Afgooye
• Co-opts disgruntled southern clans with promises of inclusion in a new military government
• His forces push into Mogadishu, capitalizing on the disunity among the Hawiye warlords and the ineffectiveness of the Transitional National Government (TNG).
2005: Morgan Declares a New Somali State
• Captures key sectors of Mogadishu (not necessarily the whole city, but enough to claim power).
• Declares himself President of the Somali National Salvation Government (SNSG), claiming to restore order and the military tradition of Barre—but rebranded.
• Receives de facto recognition from Ethiopia, Kenya, and possibly the UAE as a stabilizing force.
Conditions That Enable Victory
Factor Necessary Change
Jubaland control Morgan must never lose Kismayo in 1999
Puntland alliance Formal military pact with Abdullahi Yusuf
Southern fragmentation Continued division among Hawiye warlords
Ethiopian backing Arms, advisors, and political cover
Western indifference U.S. stays focused on Afghanistan/Iraq and ignores Somalia
ICU delay Islamic Courts Union must not rise early or unify in time to resist Morgan
Aftermath: A Militarized Autocracy (2005–2010)
• Repression and reprisals: Morgan targets Hawiye strongholds and former opponents; potential for mass violence.
• Insurgency brews: Al-Shabaab forms earlier, drawing legitimacy from anti-Morgan sentiment.
• International division: Some powers work with Morgan as a “necessary evil,” while others back rival factions.
• Somalia remains nominally unified, but becomes a de facto military dictatorship ruled by Morgan and loyalists from the old regime.
Final Analysis
General Morgan could have won the civil war and captured Mogadishu only under specific conditions:
• Quick consolidation of Jubaland
• Strong Darod coalition
• Ethiopian backing
• Fragmentation of southern rivals
• Delay or absence of an organized Islamist movement
But it would likely have led to:
• Widespread repression
• Clannic resistance and civil unrest
• A probable insurgency and second civil war
Would you like a fictional timeline or map showing this alternate Somali state under Morgan?
about the great general Morgan For General Mohamed Saeed Morgan—a controversial figure from the Barre regime—to win the Somali Civil War and capture Mogadishu, a lot would have needed to go differently. Below is a plausible alternate scenario built around a narrow window of opportunity between 1998 and 2003, when warlordism was dominant and Islamists had not yet consolidated.
Scenario: “The Return of the Military State”
Core Assumptions:
1. Morgan consolidates Jubaland faster and avoids the 1999 defeat by the JVA.
2. Puntland forms a military alliance with Morgan under Abdullahi Yusuf.
3. Ethiopia provides covert or overt backing to Morgan to counter Islamist and Hawiye dominance in central/southern Somalia.
4. Southern warlords remain fragmented and fail to unite under the TNG (formed in 2000).
Step-by-Step Breakdown
1998–2000: Consolidation of Power in Jubaland
• Instead of being expelled from Kismayo in 1999, Morgan crushes the JVA early.
• He secures Kenyan logistical support and reopens port trade routes.
• Builds a semi-professional army using:
• Ex-Barre regime officers
• Darod clan militias (especially Ogaden, Marehan, and Majeerteen fighters)
• Mercenaries or trainers from Ethiopia or Eritrea
2001–2003: Formation of a Military Coalition
• Puntland, under Abdullahi Yusuf, recognizes Morgan’s control of Jubaland and signs a Mutual Defense Pact.
• This “Darod Axis” pools resources:
• Puntland contributes stability and administrative experience.
• Jubaland provides manpower and port access.
• Ethiopia provides arms and intelligence, viewing Morgan as a secular bulwark against the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and Hawiye militias.
2003–2004: Offensive Toward Mogadishu
• Using Kismayo as a southern base and Bosaso as a supply hub, Morgan launches a multi-pronged military campaign:
• Advances through Baidoa and Afgooye
• Co-opts disgruntled southern clans with promises of inclusion in a new military government
• His forces push into Mogadishu, capitalizing on the disunity among the Hawiye warlords and the ineffectiveness of the Transitional National Government (TNG).
2005: Morgan Declares a New Somali State
• Captures key sectors of Mogadishu (not necessarily the whole city, but enough to claim power).
• Declares himself President of the Somali National Salvation Government (SNSG), claiming to restore order and the military tradition of Barre—but rebranded.
• Receives de facto recognition from Ethiopia, Kenya, and possibly the UAE as a stabilizing force.
Conditions That Enable Victory
Factor Necessary Change
Jubaland control Morgan must never lose Kismayo in 1999
Puntland alliance Formal military pact with Abdullahi Yusuf
Southern fragmentation Continued division among Hawiye warlords
Ethiopian backing Arms, advisors, and political cover
Western indifference U.S. stays focused on Afghanistan/Iraq and ignores Somalia
ICU delay Islamic Courts Union must not rise early or unify in time to resist Morgan
Aftermath: A Militarized Autocracy (2005–2010)
• Repression and reprisals: Morgan targets Hawiye strongholds and former opponents; potential for mass violence.
• Insurgency brews: Al-Shabaab forms earlier, drawing legitimacy from anti-Morgan sentiment.
• International division: Some powers work with Morgan as a “necessary evil,” while others back rival factions.
• Somalia remains nominally unified, but becomes a de facto military dictatorship ruled by Morgan and loyalists from the old regime.
Final Analysis
General Morgan could have won the civil war and captured Mogadishu only under specific conditions:
• Quick consolidation of Jubaland
• Strong Darod coalition
• Ethiopian backing
• Fragmentation of southern rivals
• Delay or absence of an organized Islamist movement
But it would likely have led to:
• Widespread repression
• Clannic resistance and civil unrest
• A probable insurgency and second civil war
Would you like a fictional timeline or map showing this alternate Somali state under Morgan?
Janub Darod had one chance to turn the tides and that was on the road to xamar 92 but they collapsed and started fighting each other it is what it is@The Oponian Guild me chating with chat GPT
For General Mohamed Saeed Morgan—a controversial figure from the Barre regime—to win the Somali Civil War and capture Mogadishu, a lot would have needed to go differently. Below is a plausible alternate scenario built around a narrow window of opportunity between 1998 and 2003, when warlordism was dominant and Islamists had not yet consolidated.
Scenario: “The Return of the Military State”
Core Assumptions:
1. Morgan consolidates Jubaland faster and avoids the 1999 defeat by the JVA.
2. Puntland forms a military alliance with Morgan under Abdullahi Yusuf.
3. Ethiopia provides covert or overt backing to Morgan to counter Islamist and Hawiye dominance in central/southern Somalia.
4. Southern warlords remain fragmented and fail to unite under the TNG (formed in 2000).
Step-by-Step Breakdown
1998–2000: Consolidation of Power in Jubaland
• Instead of being expelled from Kismayo in 1999, Morgan crushes the JVA early.
• He secures Kenyan logistical support and reopens port trade routes.
• Builds a semi-professional army using:
• Ex-Barre regime officers
• Darod clan militias (especially Ogaden, Marehan, and Majeerteen fighters)
• Mercenaries or trainers from Ethiopia or Eritrea
2001–2003: Formation of a Military Coalition
• Puntland, under Abdullahi Yusuf, recognizes Morgan’s control of Jubaland and signs a Mutual Defense Pact.
• This “Darod Axis” pools resources:
• Puntland contributes stability and administrative experience.
• Jubaland provides manpower and port access.
• Ethiopia provides arms and intelligence, viewing Morgan as a secular bulwark against the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and Hawiye militias.
2003–2004: Offensive Toward Mogadishu
• Using Kismayo as a southern base and Bosaso as a supply hub, Morgan launches a multi-pronged military campaign:
• Advances through Baidoa and Afgooye
• Co-opts disgruntled southern clans with promises of inclusion in a new military government
• His forces push into Mogadishu, capitalizing on the disunity among the Hawiye warlords and the ineffectiveness of the Transitional National Government (TNG).
2005: Morgan Declares a New Somali State
• Captures key sectors of Mogadishu (not necessarily the whole city, but enough to claim power).
• Declares himself President of the Somali National Salvation Government (SNSG), claiming to restore order and the military tradition of Barre—but rebranded.
• Receives de facto recognition from Ethiopia, Kenya, and possibly the UAE as a stabilizing force.
Conditions That Enable Victory
Factor Necessary Change
Jubaland control Morgan must never lose Kismayo in 1999
Puntland alliance Formal military pact with Abdullahi Yusuf
Southern fragmentation Continued division among Hawiye warlords
Ethiopian backing Arms, advisors, and political cover
Western indifference U.S. stays focused on Afghanistan/Iraq and ignores Somalia
ICU delay Islamic Courts Union must not rise early or unify in time to resist Morgan
Aftermath: A Militarized Autocracy (2005–2010)
• Repression and reprisals: Morgan targets Hawiye strongholds and former opponents; potential for mass violence.
• Insurgency brews: Al-Shabaab forms earlier, drawing legitimacy from anti-Morgan sentiment.
• International division: Some powers work with Morgan as a “necessary evil,” while others back rival factions.
• Somalia remains nominally unified, but becomes a de facto military dictatorship ruled by Morgan and loyalists from the old regime.
Final Analysis
General Morgan could have won the civil war and captured Mogadishu only under specific conditions:
• Quick consolidation of Jubaland
• Strong Darod coalition
• Ethiopian backing
• Fragmentation of southern rivals
• Delay or absence of an organized Islamist movement
But it would likely have led to:
• Widespread repression
• Clannic resistance and civil unrest
• A probable insurgency and second civil war
Would you like a fictional timeline or map showing this alternate Somali state under Morgan?
@The Oponian Guild he will have conquer Mogadishu 1991 it was darood ku xaar Ogaden and marehan that stabbed him in the back a fiercely warrior bu ah ha allah ha u naxaristo
Enlightenednomad
Investigative Journalist
The maxamuud saleebaan horgals in xamar are the worst. They are actively working with damul jadiid to undermine and destroy the state they represent.Waaqooyi bari state is a prank state of hassan gurgurte iyo horgalada mohamud saleeban
View attachment 371034
As long as 4.5 exists these type of figures will always represent PL because of the corrupt elders. Xoosh had his seat locked for him by islaan ciise but at least cismaan maxamuud picked semi decent representatives. Xildhibaan mire was the most outspoken MP in the parliament representing Puntland against the illegal changes to the constitution and dahir ayanle in the Senate.
Next election Deni cannot be allowed to interfere.
Darood ku xaar ba hawiye ka xun atleast hawiye wa niman an qaranka isku heyno but the darood yixir yixir dhaleey maxan isku heyna
but the darood yixir yixir dhaleey maxan isku heyna
Wax darood la yirahdo majiroJanub Darod had one chance to turn the tides and that was on the road to xamar 92 but they collapsed and started fighting each other it is what it is
hawiye iyo issaq wexe dahaan darood an majerteen ehen majiro majerteen nah horgaal maxamud saleeban caalooshi u shaqeeste ba la hareey guskisa iyo caaloshisa ka fikiro dantagud an aqoon
Add iyo add mudane 4.5 based qabyalad formal is cancer to puntland iyo somalia… Puntland marki la asasey1998 wexe ehed one person one veto system in lo gudbo after 3 year interim government but that never happened mohamud saleeban 3 amigos ba isku qabsadhey marki dambana 2004 xamar ba hawiye dowlad logu so diseey instead of dantagud puntland iyo tan Majerteeen jubbaland laga so shaqeeyo
tisa daryeele aya mid kale ku dara anago qaban ban rabna dad kale inan daar u xirno manta maxa laga deefeey an ehen hoyaadi federalka hawiye 24/7 waso
Enlightenednomad
Investigative Journalist
Burhan maryo badane wa tuug an xiishon qabyalad iyo qurun ku shaqesto
boqor ahmed king kong ba ku ficnan laha inu mataalo beesha bah dir ee Osman mohamud
Enlightenednomad
Investigative Journalist
Saxiib cismaan maxamuud hal boqor ayay leeyihiin kaasina waa boqor burhaan. Have some respect.Burhan maryo badane wa tuug an xiishon qabyalad iyo qurun ku shaqesto
King Kong should stay in Toronto.
Enlightenednomad
Investigative Journalist
Halkan 50/50 kama jirto kkk.Interesting times sxb .perhaps 50/50
Me being majerteen waamo issin iyo waxas ma naqaano daqanka wa daqanka galtida aka central and nothern somalis
Enlightenednomad
Investigative Journalist
You've raised some good points qabiilka wax faaido ah uma laha qaranimo. Nidaamka 66 has run its course along with 4.5. I was trolling you about burhaan wallahi magaciisa ma maqli karo my blood boils when I see his stupid face. I was first to go against him in this forum you called me sheegaato because of this lol. I am disillusioned with both PL/Somalia siyaasada faraha ka qaaday sxb. Keeping up with it is a waste of time honestly waxba waqti ha isaga lumin. Read about it here and there but don't consume it too much.
We need shieq like this young man umada somaliyeed jahilnimada ka saaro… somali hada nahay wild animal waxban ma dhano
Garaad Awal
Former African
Fictional borders of SSC who neither control Sool, Sanaag or Buhoodle district of Togjdheer. Sounds like nobody truly controls all of what they claim.I will bet on nothing changing. Somaliland won’t make any major changes neither will puntland each will pretend their current borders exist. Once you make permanent changes means u acknowledge land gone forever
Trending
-
-
-
Yemeni guy goes to Somaliland and makes a very disrespectful video after his visit.- Started by Fobnimo Till I Dhimo
- Replies: 148
