Real talk, even if Farmaajo is re-elected....

[Bariire]

Will he stay in power?

We live in an era where sitting Presidents literally get dragged from their home and shot point blank dead, i.e case in point Presidents of Chad, Congo, Hiati, Yemen and Libya all got assassinated.

So does it really matter if Farmaajo returns knowing he literally has pissed off 90% of all Somali politicians and also foreign countries are pissed too because of his antagonisms.

I'm just saying this nigga is the most hated Somali President ever.

 

[Periplus]

Personally, all the candidates atm are trash. That may change if others decide to run.

If Farmaajo gets re-elected, which is very possible, then we should respect the results of the election. Likewise, if Farmaajo loses, Nabad iyo Nolol should accept it.

Simple as that.

Anyone who mentions using violence because they lost an election is an enemy of the Somali people.

 

[cow]

he will win and there is nothing you can do about it. he is hated by the likes of hasan sheikh, madoobe and aaw. however majority of the somali people love him.

 

[0117]

Farmaajo must win and will stay in power

 

[TekNiKo]

He will stay another 8 years and nothing you can do

 

[Clllam]

There is no force if youre a proponent of democracy, Farmajo lacks in many things, but he brought positive changes to the nation, more so than Corrupt HSM and Sh Sharif. At the end of the day, Even If he’s re elected, I doubt the corruption will ever come to a stop, the biggest problem along with federal states acting as independent countries

 

[Aden22]

Farmaajo prolly goes to the washroom with a bullet proof vest on I highly doubt hes gonna get smoked lmao

 

[Bernie Madoff]

For your sake OP you better hope that he wins so the hobyo port can get the Ethiopian traffic

 

[Gadhwayne]

I'm just saying this nigga is the most hated Somali President ever.

Thats the real question. What percent of Wanlaweyn hate him. I have a feeling he is supported by many Benaadir/GM/HS residents otherwise he wouldnt be able to stomp on madasha protests. Also there might be many PL citizens like @DR OSMAN and @Thegoodshepherd who either secretly support him or they will take him him hands down once/if it comes down to MrCheese as the only Jabarti and the last standing southern Irir candidate

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For now Im giving MrCheese the edge to get re-elected reselected because he appears to have KG. He has the most money to buy the votes of Isaaq fugitives MPs that larp as Dir. EasternSool and Badhan MPs might still vote for him even though Deni was supposed to vet them before selecting their delegates.

As long as MrCheese does not universally repulse Benaadir residents, he can survive another term. The worst case scenario is an NuurCadde-style assertive PM trying to take executive powers but if MrCheese has parliament on his side he has nothing to worry about and he can even stomp on Benaadir/HS protestors as long as he has a large minority of Benaadir residents behind him stomping on protestors from the main GM community could have repercussions for walaalahaGalgaduud and thats why he had to replace Kheyre with Rooble before he attacked madasha

 

[Som]

Will he stay in power?

We live in an era where sitting Presidents literally get dragged from their home and shot point blank dead, i.e case in point Presidents of Chad, Congo, Hiati, Yemen and Libya all got assassinated.

So does it really matter if Farmaajo returns knowing he literally has pissed off 90% of all Somali politicians and also foreign countries are pissed too because of his antagonisms.

I'm just saying this nigga is the most hated Somali President ever.

A few reasons why it would be difficult to see Farmaajo being removed by force.
1) the opposition is divided, who is going to remove Farmaajo? Hawiye? PL? They aren't united enough to stage a coup or something.
2) again, a coup requires a united army. The somali army is divided on qabil lines, I think they could manage to remove Farmaajo but qabils will slowly start fighting among themselves like in 1991
3) Amisom won't allow that. After what happened in Afghanistan I doubt the international community would ignore a potential coup that could allow the terrorist to have more power.

 

[Gadhwayne]

A few reasons why it would be difficult to see Farmaajo being removed by force.
1) the opposition is divided, who is going to remove Farmaajo? Hawiye? PL? They aren't united enough to stage a coup or something.
2) again, a coup requires a united army. The somali army is divided on qabil lines, I think they could manage to remove Farmaajo but qabils will slowly start fighting among themselves like in 1991
3) Amisom won't allow that. After what happened in Afghanistan I doubt the international community would ignore a potential coup that could allow the terrorist to have more power.

1. The only relevant factions in Muqdisho are Benaadir/HS/GM community and it appears he has a large minority or even a plurality behind him
2. A potential coup against MrCheese would only require united Benaadir/HS/GM militias but some them are supporting him
3. Interesting thought experiment that Im not sure it could ever materialize. If it gets to the point where Benaadir/HS/GM community are united against him, and MrCheese is already opposed by most southernJabartis in PL/GM, then he would be forced out through parliament. Hypothetically speaking, if the Benaadir/HS/GM violently community unite against him, that could be the end of FGS in Muqdisho and Muqdisho could have parallel governments with chaos. Many MPs might leave the city, or parliament could be relocated. This is the worst case scenario for FGS. In this scenario, UNISOM probably leaves again, like they did in the 90s, and that would formally end FGS.

 

[Som]

1. The only relevant factions in Muqdisho are Benaadir/HS/GM community and it appears he has a large minority or even a plurality behind him
2. A potential coup against MrCheese would only require united Benaadir/HS/GM militias but some them are supporting him
3. Interesting thought experiment that Im not sure it would ever reach. If it gets to the point where Benaadir/HS/GM community are united against him and MrCheese is already opposed by most southernJabartis in PL/GM then he would be forced out through parliament. Hypothetically speaking, if the Benaadir/HS/GM community unite against him, that could be the end of FGS in Muqdisho and Muqdisho could have parallel governments with chaos. Many MPs might leave or parliament could be relocated. This is the worst case scenario. UNISOM might leave again like they did in the 90s and that would formally end FGS.

I agree with your points.
The 3rd point you make is interesting. I think the international community won't allow that scenario. Right now Somalia's state is perfect for countries like US, EU countries, Turkey. China, Gulf Arabs etc. Somalia stable enough that they can still benefit from trading and extending their influence but they won't allow it to become more stable because that could possibly give birth to a stronger somali leadership that doesn't do everything they want. I think these countries (especially turkey) will do anything in their power to stop war from happening.
Another issue is foreign aid money. If the opposition gets power through violence and chaos starts somalia won't receive aid money from the west. That's basically the only reason that is stopping the anti farmaajo folks from acting. It's smarter for them to wait, even if Farmaajo gets another term he will step down in 4 years and then somebody else will get the presidency and the aid money. If they act now they will lose aid money and bring chaos that won't allow anyone to be a true president

 

[Murax]

I get it, and I don’t blame the OP @Bariire

He took one hard look at Madasha, and said damn Cheese might actually come back

 

[digaagjecel]

If he wins he will stay in power till 2028, just make sure he doesn’t win. These next four years will determine the future of Somalia and I have a good feeling that farmajo my turn it around especially with his team.

 

[Gantaal97]

Faramajo would get re elected with the support of most Hawiye MP and one of you guys would be chosen as the new PM diffusing the situation

 

[Jiron]

If he wins he will stay in power till 2028, just make sure he doesn’t win. These next four years will determine the future of Somalia and I have a good feeling that farmajo my turn it around especially with his team.

2028 or 2025? I am sure the 4 year term did not get extended but it's important to support who ever is elected/selected, so that we can move instead of always being opposition.

 

[Ilamos07]

I don't think he will get re-elected.