President of Somalia met with some of Somalia's international partners

[bidenkulaha]

 

[bidenkulaha]

U.K ambassador

 

[bidenkulaha]

 

[bidenkulaha]

I notice the Ciise Maxmuud Foreign Minister is still patriotically pursuing the new NCC agreements despite PL being dumped. Mashallah this shows real leadership

 

[warside]

They're are also going to Garowe to congratulate Deni for 1m1v. But their true intention is to mediate between the two sides.

 

[bidenkulaha]

They're are also going to Garowe to congratulate Deni for 1m1v. But their true intention is to mediate between

Too late for talks. HSM has no interest

 

[bidenkulaha]

 

[warside]

Too late for talks. HSM has no interest

A man can't defy his masters who pay 75% of his budget.

 

[bidenkulaha]

A man can't defy his masters who pay 75% of your budget.

IC won’t cut the budget I can assure you that. HSM has the leverage over them given it’s so early in his term.

Regardless EU are literally funding the NCC reforms. Why would they sanction their own plans? This is what you miss and why HSM still hasn’t bothered engaging seriously with Deni. He has nothing to offer him or PL. Why waste his time

 

[warside]

IC won’t cut the budget I can assure you that. HSM has the leverage over them given it’s so early in his term.

Regardless EU are literally funding the NCC reforms. Why would they sanction their own plans? This is what you miss and why HSM still hasn’t bothered engaging seriously with Deni. He has nothing to offer him or PL. Why waste his time

You will see that they will eventually convince him to negotiate with PL. HSM thinks Deni will not come back so he's buying his time, but I don't think his successor will be any different.

 

[bidenkulaha]

On the security side

 

[bidenkulaha]

You will see that they will eventually convince him to negotiate with PL. HSM thinks Deni will not come back so he's buying his time, but I don't think his successor will be any different.

No HSM has nothing to offer any future PL president either. His plans are totally contradictory to PL’s. And he’s allied with the 4 states he needs for re-election. It’s irreconcilable, HSM loses his support base if he were to try bring in PL.

By the end of the year and if Deni is gone, it’ll be too late. Constitution is likely done by the end of the next parliamentary sitting, debt relief is completed and elections will be in motion in other states. PL can agree to take part in the election but refuse the rest of the NCC agreements or declare independence like SL and have their MPs selected in Xamar

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

No HSM has nothing to offer any future PL president either. His plans are totally contradictory to PL’s. And he’s allied with the 4 states he needs for re-election. It’s irreconcilable, HSM loses his support base if he were to try bring in PL.

By the end of the year and if Deni is gone, it’ll be too late. Constitution is likely done by the end of the next parliamentary sitting, debt relief is completed and elections will be in motion in other states. PL can agree to take part in the election but refuse the rest of the NCC agreements or declare independence like SL and have their MPs selected in Xamar

HSM could have played hardball with Puntland if he had:

1. won the war against Alshabab, driving them outside Galmudug & Hiirshabelle
2. blocked/sabotaged the local council elections held by Deni

He has failed in both of these tasks, having already hit his presidency's peak, it's downhill from here. He will negotiate.

The IC don't take seriously FMS that have their budgets come out of HSM pocket. How can Koonfur Galbeed resist the FGS on a constitutional provision if HSM can cut their funding at any time?

The parliament will not approve any constitution which does not have consensus support from all of Somalia's political actors. Somaliland can be ignored in the meanwhile because there is a process tailored for it running in parallel.

Puntland will not declare independence. HSM will break long before we do. We are a patient people.

 

[bidenkulaha]

HSM could have played hardball with Puntland if he had:

1. won the war against Alshabab, driving them outside Galmudug & Hiirshabelle
2. blocked/sabotaged the local council elections held by Deni

He has failed in both of these tasks, having already hit his presidency's peak, it's downhill from here. He will negotiate.

The IC don't take seriously FMS that have their budgets come out of HSM pocket. How can Koonfur Galbeed resist the FGS on a constitutional provision if HSM can cut their funding at any time?

The parliament will not approve any constitution which does not have consensus support from all of Somalia's political actors. Somaliland can be ignored in the meanwhile because there is a process tailored for it running in parallel.

Puntland will not declare independence. HSM will break long before we do. We are a patient people.

It’s hilarious you think the parliament will come save you. 100+ MPs are on the payroll (either got positions in government or are UDP). HSM only needs to bribe a 50 or more to finish the constitution. The other thing is half of them are shit-scared given their security is reliant on the FGS and their salaries paid for by them. They’ve passed a gazillion laws in the past few months without any questions.

SL and PL MPs were literally pushing for an extension two weeks ago which wasn’t supported by the allied MPs because they want to change the constitutional term with the constitution process in the next few months, not as a stand-alone motion that’ll create claims HSM is trying to overstay his term etc

 

[Abdalla]

Those are lip services. Their action speaks louder than their words. They stopped all the major programs

 

[bidenkulaha]

Beesha Caalamka have once again said clearly to Deni ‘come back to the table WITHOUT ANY CONDITIONS’. They also said ‘don’t lose your place in ‘geedi-socodka’ Somalia. ‘We will not accept any man going where he wants’.

Ignore the rubbish with HSM as Jibril tends to get his briefings from PL’s office, not Villa Somalia and has been consistently wrong on IMF progress. But very interesting ‘shuruud la aan’. ‘Ma yeelayno’. ‘Ha lumin’. Can be described as diplomatic ’hanjabaad’.

This comes as Deni is under increasing pressure in Garowe as massive buildup in mucaarad as he plans to change PL’s constitution despite only having 5 months left and also to get an extension while HSM is set to begin the process of completing Somalia’s constitution in the next couple months. Interesting times!

 

[Abdalla]

HSM is asking Ethiopia to reconcile with Puntland and act as impartial negotiator. The relationship between PL and FGS has never been this severe. The several ongoing clan wars in Barawe and KG is showing the world that FGS is losing control.

From HSM vs Deni perspective, Deni is gaining popularity with his anti FGS stance, he won’t win anything by negotiating with FGS.

I want to add that there are already two heavy anti FGS presidents, Deni and laftagareen of KG. Qoorqoor might join the ranks and it’s over.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

This humpty-dumpty trusteeship of a whale, crawling at a snail's pace, with its one-eyed, impotent driver is on a grind with its tail tied to its spout.

Whenever I have the misfortune of listening to, or reading on discourse on Somali politics, I am reminded of this noble interaction between Farage and caller, Mark in his saying 'I was kicked in the head by a horse'. Brexiteers would appreciate the derision!

 

[warside]

View attachment 279440

Beesha Caalamka have once again said clearly to Deni ‘come back to the table WITHOUT ANY CONDITIONS’. They also said ‘don’t lose your place in ‘geedi-socodka’ Somalia. ‘We will not accept any man going where he wants’.

Ignore the rubbish with HSM as Jibril tends to get his briefings from PL’s office, not Villa Somalia and has been consistently wrong on IMF progress. But very interesting ‘shuruud la aan’. ‘Ma yeelayno’. ‘Ha lumin’. Can be described as diplomatic ’hanjabaad’.

This comes as Deni is under increasing pressure in Garowe as massive buildup in mucaarad as he plans to change PL’s constitution despite only having 5 months left and also to get an extension while HSM is set to begin the process of completing Somalia’s constitution in the next couple months. Interesting times!

Deni said yesterday he's ready for negotiations, He's also said that to Catriona laing when she visited last week, and she welcomed that in her speech. So I don't think he's against negotiations or has any conditions.

 

[bidenkulaha]