Potential peace talk between fgs and shabaab in Doha hosted by Turkey & Norway

[Step a side]

How do you think Trump getting re-elected will impact these peace talks and future U.S-Somalia relations?

How would Ethiopia coup with this don't the need Somali to degree be down wouldn't oil rich Somali cause Ethiopia problems in the long run

Somalia sits on 8.3 trillion dollars worth of reserves. This is beyond Donald Trump and Ethiopia.

 

[AP123]

Imagine these guys actually do come to an agreement, it would be huge. Other than them there's really no other destabilizing force in the south. SL would probably hop back in If the south stabilises.

 

[Dharbash]

If this news is true then my predictions have come true. I have been saying this for years but people never believed me. Shabaab would only leave once the west who sponsors them doesn’t need them anymore. Oil drilling is due soon. Every contract has been signed. Shabaab will now surrender in Qatar. This was why Xassan sheikh was in Norway few weeks ago. People were mocking him for attending a forum but he was there for a very special reason. It was regarding Shabaab and oil and how to reconcile between the FGS and the Shabaab.

Yeah this government is cooked, not only have they reversed the previous governments gains on Shabaab lands and released as well as elected Ex Shabaab leader to be a minister but now you’re saying they want to “talk” with them

I hate Somalia, what a sh*t country

 

[Dharbash]

All of Somalia will be free from shabaab. All the federal member states will come to an agreement with the FGS. They will all fall in line. They will all sign papers because the oil money is crazy and no one wants to be left out.

Why would oil money entice a terror group and make them stop everything they’ve done for the past 20 years

 

[Hilmaam]

There is no proven oil. They need to do seismic studies and do more exploring. All these offshore and onshore numbers is Hypotethical. Somalia has 0 proven oil reserves. This is oil that can economically be recovered. For example for long time Canada had a bunch of oil called tar sands that was way to expensive to process but as technology improves and oil got more expensive the oil was finally recovered . Watch first 2 minutes if u have time.

Somalia sits on 8.3 trillion dollars worth of reserves. This is beyond Donald Trump and Ethiopia.

 

[Step a side]

There is no proven oil. They need to do seismic studies and do more exploring. All these offshore and onshore numbers is Hypotethical. Somalia has 0 proven oil reserves. This oil that can economically be recovered. For example for long time Canada had a bunch of oil called tar sands that was way to expensive to process but as technology improves and oil got more expensive the oil was finally recovered . Watch first 2 minutes if u have time

Venezuela has the largest oil reserve in the world but it’s not the same quality as Saudi Arabia. Somalia and the Horn in general is geologically similar to oil-rich Gulf countries. Our oil will be very easy to extract and use. 2D Geo seismic studies have shown that Somalia has at least 30 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves. Thats the bare minimum. They never tell you the real amount. That’s business. Coastline exploration CEO Richard Anderson told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"I think the potential is there for multiple tens of billions of barrels, recoverable, or even more over time," Anderson said. "Just the areas we are looking at would be in that range, in the upside case, and that is just in our blocks."

 

[Step a side]

Why would oil money entice a terror group and make them stop everything they’ve done for the past 20 years

The terorist group are controlled that’s why. They will go when they are told to go.

 

[Hassano]

People forget al shabab were the military wing of ICU and they break away because they couldn't share power with a slightly moderate sharif and you think they will do it with fgs who are apostate to them?

Extremists groups like shabab will only engage in talk in the position of strength and don't usually compromise, leave alone laying down arms

 

[Hilmaam]

It’s good if true there should be negotiations to end war and kick out foreigners taking advanatage of situation

Venezuela has the largest oil reserve in the world but it’s not the same quality as Saudi Arabia. Somalia and the Horn in general is geologically similar to oil-rich Gulf countries. Our oil will be very easy to extract and use. 2D Geo seismic studies have shown that Somalia has at least 30 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves. Thats the bare minimum. They never tell you the real amount. That’s business. Coastline exploration CEO Richard Anderson told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Yes Saudi Arabia has very light oil with very high profit margin. Heavy and sulfur oils take more processing.

Nobody knows what’s Somalia has. Even the guy in quote says I think and speculating.

I think Al shabab negotiations will be good put war to end and kick out foreigners. If robow can be absorbed so can rest of them I just don’t think oil will shift anything. Nobody will invest billions in Somalia for exploration and drilling it’s to corrupt and unstable

 

[FAST_LANE]

Step a side, if you can tell me even one meeting between FG and Al-shabab in the past, I will believe you. Al-shabab consider the federal government as infidels and will never entertain the idea of abandoning their identity and sit with Kuffar. Also Al-shabab is more than 10 splinter groups without a unifying supreme leader. We all saw when Robow, who was one of the main leaders defected to the federal government, he was promptly replaced. If Ali Dheere makes a deal with FG, he will be tossed just like Robow. 80% of Al-shabab income comes from taxation in the South and the other 20 comes from local business extortion. There is no prove that the west supplies them with anything.

Al-shabab knows one language and that's brute force. Even if happens and the talks do take place, Al-shababs demands will be :
-
-All Foreign troops must leave
-establish an Islamic state with strict Sharia implantation., therefore ending the current 4-5 System
-50/50 Power Sharing .
-

 

[Step a side]

Step a side, if you can tell me even one meeting between FG and Al-shabab in the past, I will believe you. Al-shabab consider the federal government as infidels and will never entertain the idea of abandoning their identity and sit with Kuffar. Also Al-shabab is more than 10 splinter groups without a unifying supreme leader. We all saw when Robow, who was one of the main leaders defected to the federal government, he was promptly replaced. If Ali Dheere makes a deal with FG, he will be tossed just like Robow. 80% of Al-shabab income comes from taxation in the South and the other 20 comes from local business extortion. There is no prove that the west supplies them with anything.

Al-shabab knows one language and that's brute force. Even if happens and the talks do take place, Al-shababs demands will be :
-
-All Foreign troops must leave
-establish an Islamic state with strict Sharia implantation., therefore ending the current 4-5 System
-50/50 Power Sharing .
-

No meeting ever took place between shabab and FGS because the time to get rid of Al Shabaab was still not due yet. Next year this time lakin is literally oil drilling time. Shabaab has to go. Their time is expired. Time will do the talking. Let’s wait till next month. Hope my predictions become true.

It’s good if true there should be negotiations to end war and kick out foreigners taking advanatage of situation

Yes Saudi Arabia has very light oil with very high profit margin. Heavy and sulfur oils take more processing.

Nobody knows what’s Somalia has. Even the guy in quote says I think and speculating.

I think Al shabab negotiations will be good put war to end and kick out foreigners. If robow can be absorbed so can rest of them I just don’t think oil will shift anything. Nobody will invest billions in Somalia for exploration and drilling it’s to corrupt and unstable

Nigeria is super corrupt yet they are selling oil to the world. HSM will be replaced with a competent leader. US has given up on HSM especially after the Danab corruption. Turkey already invested a total of 1 billion since they arrived in Somalia. InshaAllah we will see how things unfold. I will bring back this thread next month

 

[Kingmufasa]

Imagine thinking the west (primarily the US and the UK) don’t fund terror groups? Like can you justify your thinking for me because I’m a bit baffled with how we went from 0 “Islamic“ terrorists (no different than the Latin America death squads) to having them implanted in multiple nations that were targeted by America in 2001.

Personally I don’t think it changes much because the US needs a reason to dig its claws deeper. A sovereign Somalia escaping after carrying out their multi-decade long scheme isn’t going to happen

Islamic groups in Somalia have a long history, these groups started in the 1980s.

 

[MrDeeni1]

The terorist group are controlled that’s why. They will go when they are told to go.

listen this is just silly.

Arsenal know this would be there last chance after hsm they would get finished by the next president.

Hsm pulls this off he’s the greatest president in Somali history. That’s all

 

[X29]

No meeting ever took place between shabab and FGS because the time to get rid of Al Shabaab was still not due yet. Next year this time lakin is literally oil drilling time. Shabaab has to go. Their time is expired. Time will do the talking. Let’s wait till next month. Hope my predictions become true.

Nigeria is super corrupt yet they are selling oil to the world. HSM will be replaced with a competent leader. US has given up on HSM especially after the Danab corruption. Turkey already invested a total of 1 billion since they arrived in Somalia. InshaAllah we will see how things unfold. I will bring back this thread next month

Inshallah

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

Al-shabab knows one language and that's brute force. Even if happens and the talks do take place, Al-shababs demands will be :
-
-All Foreign troops must leave
-establish an Islamic state with strict Sharia implantation., therefore ending the current 4-5 System
-50/50 Power Sharing .
-

These are reasonable demands IMO

 

[Jungle]

Anyone who thinks this will happen is deluded

OP is a shabab sympathiser and so is anyone else who would be open to talks with khawaarij. You will find most of the time its people from the clans overran and their oday dhaqan under total khawaarij control who welcome talks

 

[Hared]

Delusional as usual. I know some might say blah blah blah somalia is not like Afghanistan but we have seen this movie before and Qatar as usual being the setting. Taliban and afghan govt talks and how it ended. The talks might begin that I accept but only as a pretext to pull troops out because thats where this is headed. Hassan ashraf ghani should start picking the country he would be airlifted to with his millions.

 

[Zak12]

somalia is not like Afghanistan

Because for the thousandth time it is not. Taliban had the support of most of Afghanistan and had the backing of the most powerful tribe in the country. For Al Shabab to win, all Darood and Hawiye clans have to support Al Shabab. As things stand, even without SNA, Shabab will still face stiff resistance from local militias who refuse to submit.

Remember that ultimately the reason why Al Shabab became so powerful was because the entire south supported them back in 2006 but by the time they started to become unpopular it was too late.

 

[Aseer]

So I'm guessing we can benefit of this

I dont know I am saying this as a general overview only allah knows.

 

[Hared]

Because for the thousandth time it is not. Taliban had the support of most of Afghanistan and had the backing of the most powerful tribe in the country. For Al Shabab to win, all Darood and Hawiye clans have to support Al Shabab. As things stand, even without SNA, Shabab will still face stiff resistance from local militias who refuse to submit.

Remember that ultimately the reason why Al Shabab became so powerful was because the entire south supported them back in 2006 but by the time they started to become unpopular it was too late.

What's the difference both are terrorist groups used by the west. Go see the so called feared haqqani being hosted now in Abu Dhabi by MBZ .when are you gonna stop being deluded and acting as if these are organic groups or movements. Shabab will soon be reinforced by the alictisam group led by scholars to legitimise them after the mou between ethiopia and somaliland is finalised and we move to the jihad phase of so called struggle. Stay turned big things about to happen in the region. Brace yourselves