New academic book "The horn of Africa since 2018"

[Midas]

I found this new academic book published by roulette that focuses on how the horn of africa has changed since 2018. The chapter on somali politics was an incredible interesting summary of the last few years.

 

[Midas]

@Idilinaa this is exactly what I was talking about for somalia to succeed the power of the fms has to be reduced. But they will always fight against this because they dont want fo give up their power.

Funnily enough it seems the main people back in farmjos presidency and even now who oppose this are puntland and jubbaland. Even that shaytan James swam recognizes how unreasonable they are.

This part was also interesting i didnt realize that extent to which puntland and jubbaland went to oppose farmajo.

 

[marxist]

where can i find the pdf of this book

 

[Midas]

where can i find the pdf of this book

Just go to annaarchive or just Google " the Horn of africa since 2018"

 

[marxist]

got the book

 

[Midas]

Lol its kind of funny how deni and Ahmed madobe support hsm because they thought he would just focus on mogadishu and let them do what they want. But even he realized unless he centralized his hands would be tied.

 

[Idilinaa]

I was reading through it and at first it seemed informative until I came across the line “The Islamic State West Africa Province” being mentioned like it was somehow a federal member state of Somalia.

That’s literally Boko Haram’s offshoot in Nigeria, a designated terrorist organization, not some administrative region in Somalia.

He even repeats “The ISWAP” again throughout the text which just makes it worse.

Did he somehow confuse Boko Haram with South West State? I genuinely don’t understand how that kind of error is even possible, especially in a piece discussing Somali federalism.

South West State of Somalia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This honestly makes me question the credibility of the entire piece. If such a basic, glaring error slipped through, what else did?

I’ll definitely be going through the references and sources later but this doesn’t look peer-reviewed or fact-checked at all.

 

[Midas]

I was reading through it and at first it seemed informative until I came across the line “The Islamic State West Africa Province” being mentioned like it was somehow a federal member state of Somalia.

That’s literally Boko Haram’s offshoot in Nigeria, a designated terrorist organization, not some administrative region in Somalia.

View attachment 366857



He even repeats “The ISWAP” again throughout the text which just makes it worse.
View attachment 366861

Did he somehow confuse Boko Haram with South West State? I genuinely don’t understand how that kind of error is even possible, especially in a piece discussing Somali federalism.

South West State of Somalia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This honestly makes me question the credibility of the entire piece. If such a basic, glaring error slipped through, what else did?

I’ll definitely be going through the references and sources later but this doesn’t look peer-reviewed or fact-checked at all.

Yh i noticed that too I think somebody made a typo in the final editing. But the book is published by roulettedge.

 

[Midas]

I just looked at the refrences and they correctly cite south west state. I guess the people who were doing the final editing really fucked up. Kind a wild since routledge is a pretty well known university press

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Lol its kind of funny how deni and Ahmed madobe support hsm because they thought he would just focus on mogadishu and let them do what they want. But even he realized unless he centralized his hands would be tied.

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[Idilinaa]

Yeah Farmaajo recognized the problem with the current system because its creates a politically fragmented landscape.

It takes me back to something @Three Moon said:

The word ‘Federal’ in countries like the United States has a certain prestige that is completely absent in the Somali interpretation. If you commit a crime that spans two states, FBI agents drawn from across the country go on a man hunt. If real-estate planners in a major city commit fraud in a Federal housing project, the prosecutors and the jury come from a different city and state, so whatever corrupt power or influence the local elites built up over the years, they can’t buy off a Federal prosecutor or jury. Their monetary policies is maintained and guided by the Federal reserve, their waters, lands, air space are all controlled by different Federal agencies.

Their form of Federalism is a centralised system with checks and balances that supersedes local agencies and politics. The Somali version is the exact opposite, a system of infinite disintegration and divisiveness, perfectly designed to keep the country looking inward and ensure it remains impoverished.

 

[Idilinaa]

Where Farmaajo failed was in not building trust in the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), and that’s exactly where the resistance stemmed from. His approach lacked transparency and didn’t involve grassroots engagement which are essential when trying to unify a country with such complex regional dynamics.


The author completely overlooks this when he places the blame squarely on the Federal Member States (FMS), writing:

'''the security has allen apart and the country is a the brink of falling into the hands of Al Shabab again. This has made abundantly clear that the FGS in its current form and behaviour cannoty be trusted with the security of the country"

But what guarantees did the FGS offer the FMS in terms of competence, fairness, or accountability?

As @Hornaristocrat have shown on his thread, the SNA has been riddled with corruption and dysfunction , so why would any FMS confidently hand over their security apparatus to the FGS?


The same goes for the electoral process. What safeguards exist to ensure proper representation or transparency?

Centralization must come through inclusion and integration, not by reducing power and imposing top-down control. Trust and legitimacy can’t be forced they have to be built.

 

[Idilinaa]

That being said, despite his flawed and at times heavy-handed attempt at centralization, Farmaajo was still leagues ahead of HSM.

He introduced a number of key reforms including regulatory frameworks, audits, and oversight mechanisms, that laid the groundwork for institutional accountability.

He secured debt relief and initiated financial reforms aimed at expanding the government's revenue base into the billions.

He made strides in military development not just by strengthening the SNA, but by successfully integrating rival factions under a unified command.

He cracked down on corruption and ensured the consistent payment of salaries to the armed forces something that had long been a persistent issue.

For all his shortcomings, Farmaajo was at least focused on building institutions and laying long-term foundations.


I just hope that in 2026, we finally get leadership that is the complete opposite of HSM , someone serious about nation-building, transparency, and security.

 

[Idilinaa]

I just hope that in 2026, we finally get leadership that is the complete opposite of HSM , someone serious about nation-building, transparency, and security.

Someone like minister Abdirisaaq Ibraahim Mahamed Ataash. No idea if he is planning on running to be president.

 

[Zak12]

That being said, despite his flawed and at times heavy-handed attempt at centralization, Farmaajo was still leagues ahead of HSM.

He introduced a number of key reforms including regulatory frameworks, audits, and oversight mechanisms, that laid the groundwork for institutional accountability.
View attachment 366999

He secured debt relief and initiated financial reforms aimed at expanding the government's revenue base into the billions.
View attachment 367000

He made strides in military development not just by strengthening the SNA, but by successfully integrating rival factions under a unified command.

He cracked down on corruption and ensured the consistent payment of salaries to the armed forces something that had long been a persistent issue.
View attachment 366998

For all his shortcomings, Farmaajo was at least focused on building institutions and laying long-term foundations.


I just hope that in 2026, we finally get leadership that is the complete opposite of HSM , someone serious about nation-building, transparency, and security.

What about Farmaajo's foreign policy? Tbh I think that is the one area HSM is arguably better at since Somalia's economic relationship with Turkey started in his first term and Farmaajo was too submissive to Ethiopia, like when he gave away members of the ONLF over to them. He also sold fishing rights to China.

I will say however he did good on fighting Kenya during the ICJ maritime case even though Kenya unfortunately got some of Somalia's EEZ in the end.

 

[Idilinaa]

That being said, despite his flawed and at times heavy-handed attempt at centralization, Farmaajo was still leagues ahead of HSM.

He introduced a number of key reforms including regulatory frameworks, audits, and oversight mechanisms, that laid the groundwork for institutional accountability.
View attachment 366999

He secured debt relief and initiated financial reforms aimed at expanding the government's revenue base into the billions.
View attachment 367000

He made strides in military development not just by strengthening the SNA, but by successfully integrating rival factions under a unified command.

He cracked down on corruption and ensured the consistent payment of salaries to the armed forces something that had long been a persistent issue.
View attachment 366998

For all his shortcomings, Farmaajo was at least focused on building institutions and laying long-term foundations.


I just hope that in 2026, we finally get leadership that is the complete opposite of HSM , someone serious about nation-building, transparency, and security.

Lets not forgot that it was under his tenure that Alshababs control shrank significantly

What about Farmaajo's foreign policy? Tbh I think that is the one area HSM is arguably better at since Somalia's economic relationship with Turkey started in his first term and Farmaajo was too submissive to Ethiopia, like when he gave away members of the ONLF over to them. He also sold fishing rights to China.

I will say however he did good on fighting Kenya during the ICJ maritime case even though Kenya unfortunately got some of Somalia's EEZ in the end.

I’d argue Farmaajo actually had a stronger and more strategic foreign policy overall. He stood his ground against UAE and crucially, maintained neutrality during the Yemen conflict a smart move given how polarizing that war has been.


At the time, before the TPLF-Ethiopia fallout, there was genuine optimism that Abiy Ahmed was steering Ethiopia in a new direction. That’s why Somalia and Eritrea were on board with normalizing relations and forming closer regional cooperation.


As for the Qalbi Dhagax incident while controversial it’s worth noting that he later became the interim leader of ONLF:

Abdikarim Qalbi-Dhagax Appointed Interim Leader of ONLF Amid Leadership Shakeup - Mustaqbal Media

The Central Committee of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has removed party chairman Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi from his post following an official meeting held in the city of Jigjiga according to reports. A statement released by the party confirmed that, after an internal investigation...

mustaqbalmedia.net

His handover happened in the context of an agreement with Abiy’s government: releasing political prisoners, delisting ONLF as a terrorist organization, and allowing them to function as a legitimate political party within the Somali region.


Farmaajo also strengthened ties with Eritrea, which eventually allowed for joint military training programs , a significant step in building Somalia’s defense capacity."

 

[Midas]

View attachment 367010

Lets not forgot that it was under his tenure that Alshababs control shrank significantly



I’d argue Farmaajo actually had a stronger and more strategic foreign policy overall. He stood his ground against UAE and crucially, maintained neutrality during the Yemen conflict a smart move given how polarizing that war has been.


At the time, before the TPLF-Ethiopia fallout, there was genuine optimism that Abiy Ahmed was steering Ethiopia in a new direction. That’s why Somalia and Eritrea were on board with normalizing relations and forming closer regional cooperation.


As for the Qalbi Dhagax incident while controversial it’s worth noting that he later became the interim leader of ONLF:

Abdikarim Qalbi-Dhagax Appointed Interim Leader of ONLF Amid Leadership Shakeup - Mustaqbal Media

The Central Committee of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has removed party chairman Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi from his post following an official meeting held in the city of Jigjiga according to reports. A statement released by the party confirmed that, after an internal investigation...

mustaqbalmedia.net

His handover happened in the context of an agreement with Abiy’s government: releasing political prisoners, delisting ONLF as a terrorist organization, and allowing them to function as a legitimate political party within the Somali region.


Farmaajo also strengthened ties with Eritrea, which eventually allowed for joint military training programs , a significant step in building Somalia’s defense capacity."

Yet nobody ever brings this up when they're talking about farmajo. Its always criticism about how he didnt focus on fighting alshabab or how the soliders sent to eritrea dissoeared. Although now the people who had those criticisms have stepped mentioning these examples.

If hsm had been semi-comptenet he wouldn't have dismantled the army but built upon the work farmajo did. But I guess as this article makes clear the reason deni and Ahmed madobe supported him is because they knew he would never do that.