My UPD source explained to me why they surrendered to Laftagareen

[The Midlands]

The first point i was ignorant of is that there was no SNA in Baidoa only regional forces and police loyal to Laftagareen trained by the british and Ethiopia . Farmaajo granted KG the status of a semi-autonomous region contrary to Hirshabelle and Galmudug where they depend on SNA and special forces so the SFG is not strong in there as there is no SNA to force its policy. I will explain the Ethiopian role after. In this situation, if a war takes place in Baidoa the opposition will be defeated and have no their own free villages to resort to so they agreed to extend for him a year untill they establish SNA in Baidoa and free the villages for the opposition meantime the opposition will be able to operate in Baidoa and deconstruct his mps and infiltrate in his bases and they will get help with money. As for Ethiopia they are not backing him but are saying they don't wanna to involve in politics and enforce Govts agenda like they were under Farmaajo this is their position from this Govt so i really now understand the situation very good. There is another strategy like this region is the king maker in the elections so Hassan Sh who works on his reelction wants to stay neutral from outside and have good relations with all of D&M instead of backing one clan and targetting another clan.

 

[Bowda-dheer]

There’s SNA in baydhabo what happened did they disappear last 5 years? Or you mean there’s no SNA-hawiye?

 

[The Midlands]

There’s SNA in baydhabo what happened did they disappear last 5 years? Or you mean there’s no SNA-hawiye?

i found out that even the eelaay are ahead of Hawiye
Yes there is SNA 60naad but they are trained for southwest by the UK the Govt can appoint for them commanders and remove others like Sanka from Gedo but they have regional orientation besides the EU joint policing program and south west darvish forces who are loyal to laftagareen all these are not existing in Galmudug and Hirshabelle. WAARE tried for Hirshabelle and put their cornerstone in Baladweyne but they fought him. For Galmudug, Fiqi was the first to try create Darvish from some already existing clan militias but they r still loyal to their different clans not PROPER regional forces so they want to change the military structure of Southwest first taking advantage of the current war within this year meantime southwest regional forces are not allowed to target the politicians who will enjoy free movements.

 

[Bowda-dheer]

i found out that even the eelaay are ahead of Hawiye
Yes there is SNA 60naad but they are trained for southwest by the UK the Govt can appoint for them commanders and remove others like Sanka from Gedo but they have regional orientation besides the EU joint policing program and south west darvish forces who are loyal to laftagareen all these are not existing in Galmudug and Hirshabelle. WAARE tried for Hirshabelle and put their cornerstone in Baladweyne but they fought him. For Galmudug, Fiqi was the first to try create Darvish from some already existing clan militias but they r still loyal to their different clans not PROPER regional forces so they want to change the military structure of Southwest first taking advantage of the current war within this year meantime southwest regional forces are not allowed to target the politicians who will enjoy free movements.


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I remember fiqi creating a daraawish in galmudug when he was named interior in galmudug did they disband them too? Abgaal prefer to be under the military system since they will benefit from xamar compared to the other clans. Darawish are paid by the mamul goboled so galmudug and hirshabele will not be able to pay them. I don’t know where kGS is getting the money from is the UK paying them? No federal government pays for maamul goboled darawish.

 

[bidenkulaha]

I remember fiqi creating a daraawish in galmudug when he was named interior in galmudug did they disband them too? Abgaal prefer to be under the military system since they will benefit from xamar compared to the other clans. Darawish are paid by the mamul goboled so galmudug and hirshabele will not be able to pay them. I don’t know where kGS is getting the money from is the UK paying them? No federal government pays for maamul goboled darawish.

Darawish exist yes. Which is why QQ is safe from FGS (he also elders support).

But this can change if Mahad Salad and Qeybdiid pull out. Would split the forces in Galmudug.

 

[Bowda-dheer]

Darawish exist yes. Which is why QQ is safe from FGS (he also elders support).

But this can change if Mahad Salad and Qeybdiid pull out. Would split the forces in Galmudug.

Qeybdid pays for them? Or is it because he owns the heavy weapons there. Qoor qoor is broke and doesnt even tax galmudug.

 

[bidenkulaha]

I fortunately understood most of this.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Qeybdid pays for them? Or is it because he owns the heavy weapons there. Qoor qoor is broke and doesnt even tax galmudug.

Nah just mean Mahad can pull out Cayr and qeybdiid Sacad.

 

[Rationale]

Your prediction was wrong save us the drama. Is this what passes for an analyst?

 

[Macawisley]

Your prediction was wrong save us the drama. Is this what passes for an analyst?

Forget his analysis, HSM got hoodwinked by Laftagareen who was supposed to be on his deathbed ffs. I still can’t believe Qoslaaye got bamboozled.

 

[Rationale]

Forget his analysis, HSM got hoodwinked by Laftagareen who was supposed to be on his deathbed ffs. I still can’t believe Qoslaaye got bamboozled.

Why would I forget his analysis? Its what Ive been told he does best. Big flop from his part.

And yes Lafta staying beyond December was a big L for this government and reer SWS the boon will waste another year for them. iA soon a man who doesn't enter with Ethiopan tanks and his ppls blood will lead that state.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Why would I forget his analysis? Its what Ive been told he does best. Big flop from his part.

And yes Lafta staying beyond December was a big L for this government and reer SWS the boon will waste another year for them. iA soon a man who doesn't enter with Ethiopan tanks and his ppls blood will lead that state.

This is a good situation. Let’s take the win, KG will be free of Laftagareen, sure it’ll take time but the elders will be preparing for selection of parliament before too long Alhamdulilah. And KG people will select their own leader without FGS/Ethiopia forcing it on them.

Good times are ahead. In the meantime we must liberate KG from Shabaab after the GM opps are complete

 

[The Midlands]

Why would I forget his analysis? Its what Ive been told he does best. Big flop from his part.

And yes Lafta staying beyond December was a big L for this government and reer SWS the boon will waste another year for them. iA soon a man who doesn't enter with Ethiopan tanks and his ppls blood will lead that state.

Perhaps Hassan Sheikh changed his mind after Al Shabaab took over middle Shaballe again he saw how "areey qawmiyadaanahay" are buu n sho and will take longer to come to KG

In my analysis there were two scanarios; 1-Qoorqoor mediation accepted by Abshir Bukhari they suggested to let afagareen get away with his 1 year extenstion i said leftageen is not happy since he didnt get clear answer in the first phase. In the second phase i said Hasaan sh said let us postpone this to post-KG liberation he didnt give a date and i said nothing official "wich could take 6 months" if you watch that maxay kula tahay guy he just said every thing i said in the second phase; until Shababaab Shabaab Shabaab
Finally Hassan Accepted the one year suggestion for the liberation and i believe he surrendered to laftagareen be of your useless isbaaro militias evacauating Ruunnirgood, hilowele gaab galcad nuur dugle what a buu n sho clan al Shabaab waa idin afuuftey

They are bringing all gorgor and danab and Eritrea to middle shabelle as Abgaal is not enough for this tiny gobol smaller than Hawadle side of Hiiraan than they will say "areey qawmiyadaan nahay"

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/my-6-months-theory-on-laftagareen-is-coming-true.142269/#post-3512229

 

[Rationale]

This is a good situation. Let’s take the win, KG will be free of Laftagareen, sure it’ll take time but the elders will be preparing for selection of parliament before too long Alhamdulilah. And KG people will select their own leader without FGS/Ethiopia forcing it on them.

Good times are ahead. In the meantime we must liberate KG from Shabaab after the GM opps are complete

I know HSM picked peace over blood, but Im just disappointed at how LG will get to leave a rich man after being a bloody bastard who was extra loyal to the N&N and doing jackshit for the state.

 

[bidenkulaha]

I know HSM picked peace over blood, but Im just disappointed at how LG will get to leave a rich man after being a bloody bastard who was extra loyal to the N&N and doing jackshit for the state.

Unfortunately there has been no consequences for the NN puppets. The only solace we can take is each and everyone is being removed from office slowly but surely.

 

[Rationale]

Perhaps Hassan Sheikh changed his mind after Al Shabaab took over middle Shaballe again he saw how "areey qawmiyadaanahay" are Marehansho and will take longer to come to KG

In my analysis there were two scanarios; 1-Qoorqoor mediation accepted by Abshir Bukhari they suggested to let afagareen get away with his 1 year extenstion i said leftageen is not happy since he didnt get clear answer in the first phase. In the second phase i said Hasaan sh said let us postpone this to post-KG liberation he didnt give a date and i said nothing official "wich could take 6 months" if you watch that maxay kula tahay guy he just said every thing i said in the second phase; until Shababaab Shabaab Shabaab
Finally Hassan Accepted the one year suggestion for the liberation and i believe he surrendered to laftagareen be of your useless isbaaro militias evacauating Ruunnirgood, hilowele gaab galcad nuur dugle what a Marehansho clan al Shabaab waa idin afuuftey

They are bringing all gorgor and danab and Eritrea to middle shabelle as Abgaal is not enough for this tiny gobol smaller than Hawadle side of Hiiraan than they will say "areey qawmiyadaan nahay"

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/my-6-months-theory-on-laftagareen-is-coming-true.142269/#post-3512229

You and your fake news coupled with your ignorance. We are behind every negative development in your analyses. Kkkkkk you sound crazy

 

[The Midlands]

I know HSM picked peace over blood, but Im just disappointed at how LG will get to leave a rich man after being a bloody bastard who was extra loyal to the N&N and doing jackshit for the state.

BS. As i explained here Hassan Sh would have been defeated. Why not focus on your isbaarist Guudlawe atleast Laftagreen is ahead of All Hawiye and has built baydhabo. I support autonomous Southwest how can they put their fate under your Isbaaro and lawlessness? Right now you can go out after 6 pm bc of ciyaal waaro do you want to export this to them?

 

[bidenkulaha]

BS. As i explained here Hassan Sh would have been defeated. Why not focus on your isbaarist Guudlawe atleast Laftagreen is ahead of All Hawiye and has built baydhabo. I support autonomous Southwest how can they put their fate under your Isbaaro and lawlessness?

Pick a line. First it’s ‘HSM was defeated and LG won’ and second is ‘LG is leaving after the year’. How can one be victorious when they give up the election process to the person who plans to replace them. This is like saying Farmaajo defeated mucaarad cos he got an extra year and handed election process to Rooble.

You are all over the place.

For this and your many disloyal transgressions, Xawadle should be punished and terrorist Gaaljecel should get kursi before y’all. I’ll support re-election of guudlawe. Hirshabelle is Hiraab state now

 

[The Midlands]

Pick a line. First it’s ‘HSM was defeated and LG won’ and second is ‘LG is leaving after the year’. How can one be victorious when they give up the election process to the person who plans to replace them. This is like saying Farmaajo defeated mucaarad cos he got an extra year and handed election process to Rooble.

You are all over the place.

For this and your many disloyal transgressions, Xawadle should be punished and terrorist Gaaljecel should get kursi before y’all. I’ll support re-election of guudlawe. Hirshabelle is Hiraab state now

Hiraab? you refused to share airport and port for 2 decades closed it and started exporting it from Boosaaso the worst you Sacad HG blocked Abdiqasim from Villa Somalia and welcomed Cabdullahi yusuf (Qaybdiid and Hussein Caydiid) even in this Govt your divided and Hassan Sheikh intends to get rid of Fiqi in a cabinet reshuffle why? HG infighting( Fiqi vs AAW, Bukhari vs Mahad Salad)
Kid don"t talk about what you dont know There is no one HG let alone "Hiraab"

 

[Rationale]

Pick a line. First it’s ‘HSM was defeated and LG won’ and second is ‘LG is leaving after the year’. How can one be victorious when they give up the election process to the person who plans to replace them. This is like saying Farmaajo defeated mucaarad cos he got an extra year and handed election process to Rooble.

You are all over the place.

For this and your many disloyal transgressions, Xawadle should be punished and terrorist Gaaljecel should get kursi before y’all. I’ll support re-election of guudlawe. Hirshabelle is Hiraab state now

As long as its a free elections and we move into system where the people choose representatives who elect the state President, VP, Speaker and governors. We dont care if its Sanbaloolshe, Guudlaawe or Shiidle who will lead the state.

What I understood recently is, these Xawaadle guys will always calaacal if they dont get the kursi. Kkkkk very Doofàar charasteristic. Its in the religion to not give leadership for the one who constantly calaacals to the position.