Madoobe will be Somalia’s Hamedti
- Thread starter Abaq
- Start date
Abaq
VIP
In a significant development, Ethiopia and the Jubaland State in Somalia have reached a major agreement to restore relations between the two sides, which have been frayed since 2019.
The agreement, brokered by the UAE, which involved top officials from the Ethiopian National Defence Forces, the intelligence and the President of Jubaland Ahmed Mohamed Madobe marks a shift away from the usual regional alliances and rivalries and could have implications for the relationship between Somalia’s central government left on the sidelines, Jubaland and Ethiopia moving forward.
One surprising aspect of this agreement immediately observed by experts is that it was brokered by the UAE instead of Kenya, Jubaland’s old traditional ally. This move could have unforeseen consequences for regional politics and could leave Kenya feeling blindsided.
During talks in Addis Ababa on Friday, the top Ethiopian intelligence and army chief also accepted Madobe’s requests for the country’s military to abandon a planned joint military offensive involving the Ethiopian military and local forces based in Gedo aimed at capturing Buale, a major al-Shabab stronghold.
The liberation of Buaale without Jubaland’s involvement was perceived by Madobe, the President of Jubaland, as a threat to his longstanding presidency. That could have weakened his political influence in the region.
In return for abandoning the planned offensive by Ethiopia which also committed to stepping back from the region’s internal political affairs, Madobe would have to reestablish and forge closer ties with Gedo’s administration by fulfilling the demands by the rebellious region.
The agreement represents a slap in the face of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has been at odds with Madobe over the struggle for the control of the Gedo region, located across the border between Somalia and Kenya.
The deal effectively gives the Jubaland’s leader a significant advantage in the dispute with the central government over the strategic region, thereby putting him at stronger positions to consolidate his power across Jubaland at the expense of Mohamud’s government.
MADOBE’S GEDO BREAKTHROUGH
Despite the significant achievement by Mr. Madobe, however, the agreement does not grant him a complete authority over Gedo, as Ethiopia has made it clear that they will not force the region to accept his demands.
Instead, under the deal stated that the aim is for Madobe and the region to collaborate and reach a consensus over their long-standing political and security disputes.
According to reliable sources, Ethiopia has also pledged to withdraw 12,000 non-ATMIS troops stationed in Gedo’s borders originally planned to help liberate Buale, which is a significant achievement for Madobe.
Despite multiple past attempts by Madobe to restore the strategically important region under his administration, Gedo remains outside of his control.
But with the new development, Madobe has scored a significant victory in his bid to extend his influence throughout the region, with the recent deal serving as a major breakthrough.
it comes at a time when the Jubaland leader is facing mounting pressure to step down, with opposition politicians from Gedo, who are aligned with him, seeking to unseat him and bring an end to his 13-year rule.
Despite this, the agreement marks a turning point in Madobe’s favor, as he has effectively outmaneuvered the central government.
Analysts immediately observe that the agreement indicates Jubaland’s rejection of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration, with the role played by the UAE in facilitating the negotiations between Madobe and Ethiopia seen by the Somali Government as a betrayal by the Emirates, a major ally of Mr. Mohamud.
ETHIOPIA’S NETT GAIN
In the meantime, the agreement hands Ethiopia the key cards and greater influence in the Federal Member State, making it essentially a crucial external actor in the region.
Through its role in facilitating the talks between Ethiopia and Jubaland, the UAE asserts itself as a formidable stakeholder. Somalia’s reaction to the agreement was muted — However, as the president of the country’s central government, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has a reason to be concerned about the growing UAE clout in this area.
The deal has dealt a major blow to his efforts in expanding his government’s influence over the federal states and attempts to extend its authority throughout the country amidst a growing rifts between the regional states and the government. But the agreement is nett positive for Ethiopia, at least in the short term.
Despite being a strategic regional ally and partner of Ethiopia, Kenya may not take the agreement lightly, given that Jubaland has mostly favored Ethiopia.
However, experts suggest that instead of pressuring Madobe and his State, which could lead to further distancing, Kenya should explore alternative options to safeguard its economic and security interests in the region in response to this new development.
SOMALIA’S DIPLOMACY
This development will likely have significant implications for Somalia’s diplomacy and poses a challenge to Villa Somalia, the government’s seat of power in Mogadishu.
The UAE’s involvement in Somalia’s politics is not new, as the country has been actively supporting various regional leaders and administrations for years. However, this latest move signals a shift in power dynamics in Somalia’s political landscape.
Under the terms of the deal, Ethiopia has agreed to support Ahmed Madobe’s Jubaland administration in exchange for his cooperation in the region and Somalia as a whole. In addition, Ahmed Madobe’s administration will in return reportedly receive political and military aid from Ethiopia.
This development has however unnerved the Somali Government, with its officials have privately accused the UAE of interfering in its internal affairs. Saying that the deal violates Somalia’s sovereignty and undermines its efforts to establish a unified federal system.
The UAE’s involvement in Somalia’s politics has long been a contentious issue, with some accusing the country of pursuing its own interests at the expense of Somalia’s central government .
The UAE Government has also been accused of supporting separatist movements including the breakaway Somaliland and Puntland with whom it signed multiple deals including ports and military bases which has had a ripple effect on Somalia’s economy.
The deal between Ethiopia and Ahmed Madobe is likely to deepen the rift between the Somali government and regional administrations, further complicating efforts to establish a stable federal system.
www.hornexaminer.com
The agreement, brokered by the UAE, which involved top officials from the Ethiopian National Defence Forces, the intelligence and the President of Jubaland Ahmed Mohamed Madobe marks a shift away from the usual regional alliances and rivalries and could have implications for the relationship between Somalia’s central government left on the sidelines, Jubaland and Ethiopia moving forward.
One surprising aspect of this agreement immediately observed by experts is that it was brokered by the UAE instead of Kenya, Jubaland’s old traditional ally. This move could have unforeseen consequences for regional politics and could leave Kenya feeling blindsided.
During talks in Addis Ababa on Friday, the top Ethiopian intelligence and army chief also accepted Madobe’s requests for the country’s military to abandon a planned joint military offensive involving the Ethiopian military and local forces based in Gedo aimed at capturing Buale, a major al-Shabab stronghold.
The liberation of Buaale without Jubaland’s involvement was perceived by Madobe, the President of Jubaland, as a threat to his longstanding presidency. That could have weakened his political influence in the region.
In return for abandoning the planned offensive by Ethiopia which also committed to stepping back from the region’s internal political affairs, Madobe would have to reestablish and forge closer ties with Gedo’s administration by fulfilling the demands by the rebellious region.
The agreement represents a slap in the face of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has been at odds with Madobe over the struggle for the control of the Gedo region, located across the border between Somalia and Kenya.
The deal effectively gives the Jubaland’s leader a significant advantage in the dispute with the central government over the strategic region, thereby putting him at stronger positions to consolidate his power across Jubaland at the expense of Mohamud’s government.
MADOBE’S GEDO BREAKTHROUGH
Despite the significant achievement by Mr. Madobe, however, the agreement does not grant him a complete authority over Gedo, as Ethiopia has made it clear that they will not force the region to accept his demands.
Instead, under the deal stated that the aim is for Madobe and the region to collaborate and reach a consensus over their long-standing political and security disputes.
According to reliable sources, Ethiopia has also pledged to withdraw 12,000 non-ATMIS troops stationed in Gedo’s borders originally planned to help liberate Buale, which is a significant achievement for Madobe.
Despite multiple past attempts by Madobe to restore the strategically important region under his administration, Gedo remains outside of his control.
But with the new development, Madobe has scored a significant victory in his bid to extend his influence throughout the region, with the recent deal serving as a major breakthrough.
it comes at a time when the Jubaland leader is facing mounting pressure to step down, with opposition politicians from Gedo, who are aligned with him, seeking to unseat him and bring an end to his 13-year rule.
Despite this, the agreement marks a turning point in Madobe’s favor, as he has effectively outmaneuvered the central government.
Analysts immediately observe that the agreement indicates Jubaland’s rejection of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration, with the role played by the UAE in facilitating the negotiations between Madobe and Ethiopia seen by the Somali Government as a betrayal by the Emirates, a major ally of Mr. Mohamud.
ETHIOPIA’S NETT GAIN
In the meantime, the agreement hands Ethiopia the key cards and greater influence in the Federal Member State, making it essentially a crucial external actor in the region.
Through its role in facilitating the talks between Ethiopia and Jubaland, the UAE asserts itself as a formidable stakeholder. Somalia’s reaction to the agreement was muted — However, as the president of the country’s central government, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has a reason to be concerned about the growing UAE clout in this area.
The deal has dealt a major blow to his efforts in expanding his government’s influence over the federal states and attempts to extend its authority throughout the country amidst a growing rifts between the regional states and the government. But the agreement is nett positive for Ethiopia, at least in the short term.
Despite being a strategic regional ally and partner of Ethiopia, Kenya may not take the agreement lightly, given that Jubaland has mostly favored Ethiopia.
However, experts suggest that instead of pressuring Madobe and his State, which could lead to further distancing, Kenya should explore alternative options to safeguard its economic and security interests in the region in response to this new development.
SOMALIA’S DIPLOMACY
This development will likely have significant implications for Somalia’s diplomacy and poses a challenge to Villa Somalia, the government’s seat of power in Mogadishu.
The UAE’s involvement in Somalia’s politics is not new, as the country has been actively supporting various regional leaders and administrations for years. However, this latest move signals a shift in power dynamics in Somalia’s political landscape.
Under the terms of the deal, Ethiopia has agreed to support Ahmed Madobe’s Jubaland administration in exchange for his cooperation in the region and Somalia as a whole. In addition, Ahmed Madobe’s administration will in return reportedly receive political and military aid from Ethiopia.
This development has however unnerved the Somali Government, with its officials have privately accused the UAE of interfering in its internal affairs. Saying that the deal violates Somalia’s sovereignty and undermines its efforts to establish a unified federal system.
The UAE’s involvement in Somalia’s politics has long been a contentious issue, with some accusing the country of pursuing its own interests at the expense of Somalia’s central government .
The UAE Government has also been accused of supporting separatist movements including the breakaway Somaliland and Puntland with whom it signed multiple deals including ports and military bases which has had a ripple effect on Somalia’s economy.
The deal between Ethiopia and Ahmed Madobe is likely to deepen the rift between the Somali government and regional administrations, further complicating efforts to establish a stable federal system.
Exclusive: UAE-brokered Ethiopia-Madobe deal puts Villa Somalia at jeopardy - Hornexaminer.com
In a significant development, Ethiopia and the Jubaland State in Somalia have reached a major agreement to restore relations between the two sides, which have been frayed since…
www.hornexaminer.com
Abaq
VIP
Yes he is but there is always a grain of truth somewhere
Abaq
VIP
I don’t know how reliable this is but if it is true, then Madoobe scored big during his recent trip to Addis. It seems the UAE has settled on a Madoobe led Jubbaland being their ally in Somalia. With the supposed island deal, the recent arms they sent to Kismaayo, and now this Addis mediation between Madoobe and Abiye, things seem to be going Madoobe’s way once again. And with many Liyu members pouring into Jubbaland, word on the street is they will be added to an expanded Jubbaland Darawiish which will be funded and armed by the UAE. In return, Madoobe and the Jubbaland Darawish will “fulfill” UAE interests in the country
Abaq
VIP
You are veteran political analyst sxb, remove the emotion. In the cold world on politics, all that matters is interest. If this news is true and Ogaden gets armed by UAE further entrenching our power in Jubbaland and the country, I’m more than willing to give them a few more islands on top.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
In what way can Madoobe be a Hemedti. Not that this is even something to aspire to as Hemedti has destroyed Sudan.
Hemedti has become insanely rich from the gold he’s stealing of the Sudanese people. Allowing him to conscript a paramilitary force of more than a 100,000 people.
I know CBB are anti-UAE given their support to Madoobe but surely they can see how unrealistic this is.
Hemedti has become insanely rich from the gold he’s stealing of the Sudanese people. Allowing him to conscript a paramilitary force of more than a 100,000 people.
I know CBB are anti-UAE given their support to Madoobe but surely they can see how unrealistic this is.
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Prince of HS
VIP
Madoobe isn’t even allowed to travel 10KM north of kismaayo by road yet they think he’s capable of being a Hemedti.look at what we are dealing with here people
KKkkkkkkkk Look at these cagdheers coping, Buale will be liberated by Mareexan langaabs
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SPMLegend
VIP
Brother @Abaq don’t fall for CBB propaganda. The recent talks in Adis I’m hearing a lot of good news for JL. Also our policies towards UAE should be mutual. We should not offer ourselves to them like CBB did with brother Abiye’s Ethiopia because politics is always changing. I know Madoobe doesn’t make agreements without knowing he has advantages in them.
SPMLegend
VIP
You can’t even travel even travel 10 Kms north of Jowhar without coming across Ja.reer Cismaan kkk
bidenkulaha
GalYare
racism isn’t something to be proud of. @Prince of HS can travel from Xamar to xaradheere today. The best lands in Somalia
I am thinking rather logical. I would never compare my leader to Hamedti, or support a someone who’s a Hamedti. Hamedti is a lackey with no free will, he’s a wardog unleashed to the enemies of his handlers.
Prince of HS
VIP
My uncle lived in Jilib. It’s vast majority are the noble Bantu. Middle Jubba in general is minority central. No wonder it’s Al Shabaab base.
SPMLegend
VIP
yes that’s true in 10 years from now it will be normalized as a Ja.reeeweyne degmo
Congratulations to the marginalized
SPMLegend
VIP
Those Fufus will be deported to Lower Shabelle soon
