Let’s think clearly here

[hayran]

Let’s skip the BS and information overload going on in the other threads and twitter

SL is saying they’re getting recognition but Ethiopia is keeping quiet on it, so aqoonsi isn’t happening. And if they do it’ll only be as some Ethiopian client state, at best it’s gonna be UAE and their rogue puppets. EAC is legally obligated to not recognise SL and the wider IC defers their diplomacy to the AU, which left SLs fate to us

The deal being reported is 20km near the Djibouti chokepoint for a stake in Ethiopian airlines, which is hilarious. SL would be getting royally fucked, biggest rip off of all time and I’m being genuine.

FGS can’t do SHIT but write a strongly worded letter, don’t expect any serious reaction from them. We would get steamrolled in a war with Ethiopia and people just don’t have the taste for war anymore. And we don’t have ‘allies’ that will fight and die for what they consider a failed state

So what’s on the table?

1. SL sees they aren’t getting recognition, no contracts/deals are signed and it fizzles out like the 4 ports thing. Just ends up as noise like all things in Somali politics (I wouldn’t expect rationality from bihi however)

2. It goes through and SL gets ‘recognised’. Isaaq have their calories counted while oromos flood the triangle. SL becomes a part of Ethiopia in 2040

3. It goes through just how Ethiopia wants. Same thing as 2 but muse bihi and elites get left with junk stocks from a debt ridden 3rd world airline

5. HSM, IOG and MB hatched up some political theatre as a way to maintain power, nothing happens in the end.

anything is possible, I wouldn’t have an issue with SL seceding but giving these Ethiopians a navy is SUICIDE. Committing suicide for a mere share of Ethiopian airlines is just….. I don’t have words. I’ll leave it there

 

[hayran]

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[NidarNidar]

Let’s skip the BS and information overload going on in the other threads and twitter

SL is saying they’re getting recognition but Ethiopia is keeping quiet on it, so aqoonsi isn’t happening. And if they do it’ll only be as some Ethiopian client state, at best it’s gonna be UAE and their rogue puppets. EAC is legally obligated to not recognise SL and the wider IC defers their diplomacy to the AU, which left SLs fate to us

The deal being reported is 20km near the Djibouti chokepoint for a stake in Ethiopian airlines, which is hilarious. SL would be getting royally fucked, biggest rip off of all time and I’m being genuine.

FGS can’t do SHIT but write a strongly worded letter, don’t expect any serious reaction from them. We would get steamrolled in a war with Ethiopia and people just don’t have the taste for war anymore. And we don’t have ‘allies’ that will fight and die for what they consider a failed state

So what’s on the table?

1. SL sees they aren’t getting recognition, no contracts/deals are signed and it fizzles out like the 4 ports thing. Just ends up as noise like all things in Somali politics (I wouldn’t expect rationality from bihi however)

2. It goes through and SL gets ‘recognised’. Isaaq have their calories counted while oromos flood the triangle. SL becomes a part of Ethiopia in 2040

3. It goes through just how Ethiopia wants. Same thing as 2 but muse bihi and elites get left with junk stocks from a debt ridden 3rd world airline

5. HSM, IOG and MB hatched up some political theatre as a way to maintain power, nothing happens in the end.

anything is possible, I wouldn’t have an issue with SL seceding but giving these Ethiopians a navy is SUICIDE. Committing suicide for a mere share of Ethiopian airlines is just….. I don’t have words. I’ll leave it there

I highly doubt it be anywhere near Zeila, since that will dissolve the marriage of convenience for the people of Awdal with SL.

 

[El Nino]

I am still on team #nothinghappens, but Im a little bit worried. I have been underestimating Abiy. While Ethiopia is seeing worsening ethnic divide and conflict, he seems to be pulling through. He is competent, which means he is dangerous in a sea of incompetence.


Part of me thinks, how will they fund this? Itoobiya doesn’t have money now but frighteningly they always seem to pull through.

In conclusion, Im just worried the fück out.

 

[Zak12]

Let’s skip the BS and information overload going on in the other threads and twitter

SL is saying they’re getting recognition but Ethiopia is keeping quiet on it, so aqoonsi isn’t happening. And if they do it’ll only be as some Ethiopian client state, at best it’s gonna be UAE and their rogue puppets. EAC is legally obligated to not recognise SL and the wider IC defers their diplomacy to the AU, which left SLs fate to us

The deal being reported is 20km near the Djibouti chokepoint for a stake in Ethiopian airlines, which is hilarious. SL would be getting royally fucked, biggest rip off of all time and I’m being genuine.

FGS can’t do SHIT but write a strongly worded letter, don’t expect any serious reaction from them. We would get steamrolled in a war with Ethiopia and people just don’t have the taste for war anymore. And we don’t have ‘allies’ that will fight and die for what they consider a failed state

So what’s on the table?

1. SL sees they aren’t getting recognition, no contracts/deals are signed and it fizzles out like the 4 ports thing. Just ends up as noise like all things in Somali politics (I wouldn’t expect rationality from bihi however)

2. It goes through and SL gets ‘recognised’. Isaaq have their calories counted while oromos flood the triangle. SL becomes a part of Ethiopia in 2040

3. It goes through just how Ethiopia wants. Same thing as 2 but muse bihi and elites get left with junk stocks from a debt ridden 3rd world airline

5. HSM, IOG and MB hatched up some political theatre as a way to maintain power, nothing happens in the end.

anything is possible, I wouldn’t have an issue with SL seceding but giving these Ethiopians a navy is SUICIDE. Committing suicide for a mere share of Ethiopian airlines is just….. I don’t have words. I’ll leave it there

Its not just about the airlines. Muse also wants weapons from Ethiopia so they can combat SSC

 

[Mayor]

Its not just about the airlines. Muse also wants weapons from Ethiopia so they can combat SSC

Tbh this is my main concern. Idc about Ethiopia getting a piece of the Berbera port, it was originally supposed to have an ownership stake before that deal fell through

What I’m worried about is if this deal gives SL the weapons it needs to restart its war with SSC

 

[Three Moons]

Somalia in early December 2023 invited members of the Egyptian Air Force to built a new air base in Somalia for the Somali Air Force, which some have speculated would also double as an Egyptian base. This deal with SL could be Abiye’s way of telling HSM to reverse that decision. Their silence on extending recognition and insisting that this deal only involves access to the sea for shares in Ethiopian Airlines is very suspect. This is a major geopolitical decision, why would they remain silent about it? Unless they are feeling out the current backlash; politically, militarily and economically before doubling down or rescinding that MOU.

If Ethiopia does persist, then Somalia should proceed a step further and directly host Egyptian F-16s with a clear line to the Renaissance Dam, since the genie is out of the bag there is no need to indulge in regional sensitivities anymore. Concurrently Somalia should also import heavy weaponry such as drones, jet fighters and ships to secure its skies, borders and sea since the arms-embargo is fully lifted.

Ethiopia cannot intervene in the North without looking like a poor African version of Russia, it also doesn’t have the excuse of fighting an Islamist group, nor can its forces be quickly camouflaged into a peacekeeping force as ATMIS is departing in the thousands. This leaves the rules based international community with no choice but to impose crippling sanctions, not because Somalia means anything to them, but to prevent other despots in Venezuela, etc from seeing the Ethiopian blunder as a green light for their own adventures. This leaves the military scenario as one of indirect support, which is something Somalia can swing in its favour by providing adequate support to the Northern unionists and make it clear its ready to extend diplomatic recognition to any group wishing to secede from Ethiopia.

Abiye’s Ethiopia is a bankrupt conflict ridden state building palaces it cannot afford and taking out loans it cannot repay. It’s dealing with multiple internal conflicts on a conventional scale. This rabbit out of the hat move is clearly a way to deflect from domestic pressure, and once the euphoria dies down and reality sets in, those issues will resurface.

The fact that they did it now when Somalia is returning to the world stage and rebuilding itself economically, politically and militarily, is very telling.

 

[Riftvalley]

Its not just about the airlines. Muse also wants weapons from Ethiopia so they can combat SSC

Somaliland army could not breach Laascaanood for days in the beginning of the conflict when the city was being defended by local youths. Goojacade also showed the complete and utter disaster that was called an “army”. It was basically some old guys from SNM heavily. reliant on artillery superiority. I haven’t even mentioned the corruption involved in budget allocation and the stealing of funds by the senior ranks. SL will need years of rebuilding and training to professionalise the army, and hold a large stretch of land such as SSC lands, especially when the the entire population is against SL.

In the hypothetical situation SL gets better funding and weapons, I don’t think it will be a game changer. A few drones are useless if you don’t have tanks, helicopters and a professional infantry to hold towns and cities.

I would be more interested in knowing the implications of this for the Awdalite clan. Should the Xabashis permanently entrench themselves in the Berbera area, SL can use them to thwart any attempts of them (Gababursi) leaving the secessionist state.

as for how all this will pan out, the answer is “you never know in Somali politics”. It is hard to make a prediction when the Somali President was laughing and smiling with Biixi a few days ago.

 

[Abdisamad]

Let’s skip the BS and information overload going on in the other threads and twitter

SL is saying they’re getting recognition but Ethiopia is keeping quiet on it, so aqoonsi isn’t happening. And if they do it’ll only be as some Ethiopian client state, at best it’s gonna be UAE and their rogue puppets. EAC is legally obligated to not recognise SL and the wider IC defers their diplomacy to the AU, which left SLs fate to us

The deal being reported is 20km near the Djibouti chokepoint for a stake in Ethiopian airlines, which is hilarious. SL would be getting royally fucked, biggest rip off of all time and I’m being genuine.

FGS can’t do SHIT but write a strongly worded letter, don’t expect any serious reaction from them. We would get steamrolled in a war with Ethiopia and people just don’t have the taste for war anymore. And we don’t have ‘allies’ that will fight and die for what they consider a failed state

So what’s on the table?

1. SL sees they aren’t getting recognition, no contracts/deals are signed and it fizzles out like the 4 ports thing. Just ends up as noise like all things in Somali politics (I wouldn’t expect rationality from bihi however)

2. It goes through and SL gets ‘recognised’. Isaaq have their calories counted while oromos flood the triangle. SL becomes a part of Ethiopia in 2040

3. It goes through just how Ethiopia wants. Same thing as 2 but muse bihi and elites get left with junk stocks

Tbh this is my main concern. Idc about Ethiopia getting a piece of the Berbera port, it was originally supposed to have an ownership stake before that deal fell through

What I’m worried about is if this deal gives SL the weapons it needs to restart its war with SSC

They'll just get disarmed on a second round, beside the weapons embargo on Somalia has been lifted so we can also buy heavy weapons and after the traitorous act of criminal bixii the rest of Somalia will join in to support the fight.. I think Ethiopia did this move to destabilize Somalia now things are getting better for us.. They're our eternal enemy and anyone who's in cohorts with them should be treated as such.

 

[Mayor]

They'll just get disarmed on a second round, beside the weapons embargo on Somalia has been lifted so we can also buy heavy weapons and after the traitorous act of criminal bixii the rest of Somalia will join in to support the fight.. I think Ethiopia did this move to destabilize Somalia now things are getting better for us.. They're our eternal enemy and anyone who's in cahoots with them should be treated as such.

If HSM doesn’t support SSC that may be political suicide. There were a number of politicians who spoke out against this deal. Those same politicians can turn the people against HSM if he doesn’t do anything to stop this

The question is, does Somalia have the funding to acquire weapons? I want to see what the IC says about this situation, especially the US

But you’re definitely right about this uniting everyone. I even see a lot of videos from SL showing that many of the people there aren’t happy either

 

[Abdisamad]

If HSM doesn’t support SSC that may be political suicide. There were a number of politicians who spoke out against this deal. Those same politicians can turn the people against HSM if he doesn’t do anything to stop this

The question is, does Somalia have the funding to acquire weapons? I want to see what the IC says about this situation, especially the US

But you’re definitely right about this uniting everyone. I even see a lot of videos from SL showing that many of the people there aren’t happy either

I personally have no high faith on HSM he's acting like qof sixran and not a capable leader of a nation.. Regarding acquisition of weapons, we can borrow money to finance the deal, I'm sure countries like Turkey, China and Russia would be able to supply us arms.. I wish we didn't have to this route but it seems we have no choice but to act when we have Ethiopians trying to xoog our coast.

 

[Garaad Awal]

I personally have no high faith on HSM he's acting like qof sixran and not a capable leader of a nation.. Regarding acquisition of weapons, we can borrow money to finance the deal, I'm sure countries like Turkey, China and Russia would be able to supply us arms.. I wish we didn't have to this route but it seems we have no choice but to act when we have Ethiopians trying to xoog our coast.

When will you start your fight against the ENDF in the South?

 

[Abdisamad]

When will you start your fight against the ENDF in the South?

They should be kicked out along side all other foreign entities, but this doesn't justify selling off the Somali coast and empowering Ethiopia.. Anyway why does Ethiopia need a naval base when it is land locked country? Ask yourself this if you are a true Somali and see what conclusion you'll reach to at the end of your rational evaluation.

 

[Mayor]

I personally have no high faith on HSM he's acting like qof sixran and not a capable leader of a nation..

I also have no faith in him, but the severity of this could make him take action. His career is on the line. If he acts poorly this can ruin his political aspirations. Not to mention how this could damage his fight against Al-Shabbab. They could use this as a way to recruit so many new members

Regarding acquisition of weapons, we can borrow money to finance the deal, I'm sure countries like Turkey, China and Russia would be able to supply us arms..

Tbh I don’t think China or Turkey will take our side as they are Ethiopia’s 1st and 2nd largest foreign investors. They’ve invested too much into Ethiopia. Turkey will vocally support Somalia to appease us, but it won’t do anything to harm Ethiopia. Similar to how it vocally supports Palestine, while still selling oil to Israel

I’m curious to see if the EAC will comment on this. They didn’t get in between Rwanda and the DRC’s conflict, but that was between two member states. Ethiopia is not apart of the EAC so let’s see if this gets treated differently

 

[Sigmundd]

They'll just get disarmed on a second round, beside the weapons embargo on Somalia has been lifted so we can also buy heavy weapons and after the traitorous act of criminal bixii the rest of Somalia will join in to support the fight.. I think Ethiopia did this move to destabilize Somalia now things are getting better for us.. They're our eternal enemy and anyone who's in cohorts with them should be treated as such.

Your onto something omdsss

 

[hayran]

Turkey, China and Russia

They are the main arms suppliers of Ethiopia, why would they damage the good relationship with a loyal client?

 

[Abdisamad]

They are the main arms suppliers of Ethiopia, why would they damage the good relationship with a loyal client?

Business is business, I'm sure they'll sell to anyone who pays for the arms. China also wouldn't approve of Ethipoas move since this could give them further issues with Taiwan.

 

[Garaad Awal]

They should be kicked out along side all other foreign entities, but this doesn't justify selling off the Somali coast and empowering Ethiopia.. Anyway why does Ethiopia need a naval base when it is land locked country? Ask yourself this if you are a true Somali and see what conclusion you'll reach to at the end of your rational evaluation.

Again they won’t leave just because you told them. Ethiopia & Kenya have admitted this many times over the last decade. Nobody takes your govt seriously because you don’t even take yourselves seriously. You want to declare war on Ethiopia when their troops aren’t that far Xamar and ridicule SL for signing a mutually beneficial agreement with clear terms on how long the lease will be.

 

[Mayor]

Business is business, I'm sure they'll sell to anyone who pays for the arms. China also wouldn't approve of Ethipoas move since this could give them further issues with Taiwan.

SL developing ties with Taiwan will make it so that China probably won’t recognize its independence. I wonder if China will pressure Ethiopia to do the same

 

[Abdisamad]

SL developing ties with Taiwan will make it so that China probably won’t recognize its independence. I wonder if China will pressure Ethiopia to do the same

If you notice during the deal announcement there was only one flag present in the meeting room, this tells me Ethiopia doesn't consider SL to be an independent country, they're probably saying we'll recognize you to manipulate the puplic opinion.