Kenyan Somalis invest in Mogadisho
- Thread starter Barkhadle1520
- Start date
Espaa_
Ku sali nabiga {scw}
Contribute to global warming which is hitting somalia the most. Crazy stuff
Hotchick12
VIP
i’m all for building more development, how can you be a nimby in somalia, you are not old white middle age people, destroy those villiages!!!!
Looking back on it, if we had a decent government that receives enough taxes, we would be OP as a nation, poor governments are nerfing somalis so hard
Theres people in galmudug that are wealthier than the whole state government
We have a ridiculous amount of small companies that could go global with government subsidies and build the country even more with government contracts, for example we have lots of electrical companies that set up street lights or construction companies that build roads, but the governments are too poor to give them major projects or better equipment
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Somalia's govt will eventually stabilize and regroup. Our state capacity is honestly very underrated. Even besides the literacy project of the 70s. The fact that after the ogaden war somalia was able to take in 1 million refugees when our pouplation was only 6 million is incredibly insane when you think about it. That was baiscally the equivalent of accepting 20% of our pouplation and would be like if America suddenly accepted 50 million refugees.
although in the end that was probably the single largest reason why we collapsed. But the fact there wasn't some insane mass starvation is a testament to our state capacity even in the 80s.
Pretty sure there was
The famine happned after the state collapsed in 1991 whereas these refugees came in right after the war in 1978.
It happened during siad and hundreds of thousands of rx died
The worst famine happned during the early 90s and even then all across Somalia it was only a couple hundred thosuand who died.
But your saying there was this famine in the 80s where hundred of thosuand of rahanweyn died but we've never heard of it ?
Idk much about it but a trusted source told me so, ill ask him again
There was some starvation creeping into the North in the late 80s, but that was mainly because rebel groups cut off food supplies and delivery routes.
But you’re mostly right there wasn’t full-blown famine until 1991 when the entire food system collapsed. In fact, throughout much of the 80s Somalia had become food self-sufficient, with large agricultural surpluses. They were even able to feed both the displaced Ogaden population and the domestic population. The government just had to bulk-purchase food from the markets.
I agree with you that the Somali government can regroup, and that state capacity is often underrated. Even the ICU, in their short time in power, managed to mobilize funds effectively to finance services, the military, police, coast guards, a judicial-bureaucratic structure, schools, waste managment and hospitals.
And they did this mainly through taxes:
Somalia's Islamists Begin Collecting Taxes in Mogadishu's Markets
What’s interesting is that businesses were actually compliant in paying those taxes, and the ICU also taxed the ports.
To me, this shows it really comes down to reforming the political system and building legitimacy through transparency and service delivery. If that’s done, then gradually the economy can be formalized, which would expand the tax base.
There’s actually a huge opportunity here. Even if governments struggle to tax businesses, Somalia has a large and complex financial sector that handles massive volumes of capital flows and transactions.
If they can manage to tax even a fraction of that which right now is basically under-utilized they could generate substantial revenue for the state.
Read this:
It's usually this same financial system that steps up to finance those electricity and construction companies and micro-finance small businesses.
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Its as easy as taxing 10% of mobile money transactionsThere’s actually a huge opportunity here. Even if governments struggle to tax businesses, Somalia has a large and complex financial sector that handles massive volumes of capital flows and transactions.
If they can manage to tax even a fraction of that which right now is basically under-utilized they could generate substantial revenue for the state.
Read this:
It's usually this same financial system that steps up to finance those electricity and construction companies and micro-finance small businesses.
Maybe I don't know enough but if FGS pushed to do this they would boost their revenues by billions, my guess is that there are operators which are completely outside of their control in puntland and sl
Somalia's rise over the next 20 years is probably the biggest dark horse that nobody's predicting.There was some starvation creeping into the North in the late 80s, but that was mainly because rebel groups cut off food supplies and delivery routes.
But you’re mostly right there wasn’t full-blown famine until 1991 when the entire food system collapsed. In fact, throughout much of the 80s Somalia had become food self-sufficient, with large agricultural surpluses. They were even able to feed both the displaced Ogaden population and the domestic population. The government just had to bulk-purchase food from the markets.
I agree with you that the Somali government can regroup, and that state capacity is often underrated. Even the ICU, in their short time in power, managed to mobilize funds effectively to finance services, the military, police, coast guards, a judicial-bureaucratic structure, schools, waste managment and hospitals.
And they did this mainly through taxes:
Somalia's Islamists Begin Collecting Taxes in Mogadishu's Markets
What’s interesting is that businesses were actually compliant in paying those taxes, and the ICU also taxed the ports.
To me, this shows it really comes down to reforming the political system and building legitimacy through transparency and service delivery. If that’s done, then gradually the economy can be formalized, which would expand the tax base.
There’s actually a huge opportunity here. Even if governments struggle to tax businesses, Somalia has a large and complex financial sector that handles massive volumes of capital flows and transactions.
If they can manage to tax even a fraction of that which right now is basically under-utilized they could generate substantial revenue for the state.
Read this:
It's usually this same financial system that steps up to finance those electricity and construction companies and micro-finance small businesses.
Honestly if we play our cards right with the oil money and somali galbeed situation we have a decent chance of being a country of like 70 million + people with a 700-800 billion dollar economy by like 2060
Not saying its impossible but you've got all odds against you politically wise, I think 2026-2027 Somalia will either die or it will show signs of recovering politically, theres no in between but somalia is closer to not existing in a few years right now than rising to the top
70 million is a big stretch max 40m in like 50 years, and 800b usd economy ?? Be realistic, theres no signs right now it could reach that far
The 70 million comes from somali galbbed which has somewhere between 15-20 million people joining us and then our pouplation doubling from the current 35-40 million to 70-80 million.
When you add somali galbeed I dont think a total gdp of between 30-40 billion is ridiculous. And you would need a 10% growth rate to reach 700 billion in 30 years which which if considering the hypothetical size of our oil reserves and our mercantile culture doesnt seem to impossible if we're very strategic about it.
Ok but 700b is the biggest stretch ive ever seen, especially in 30 years
Just because SK did it doesn't mean anyone can do it, their growth was very atypical and came with huge downsides on the long run
Its about 10% growth rate for 30 years which a china with a billion people was able to pull of for 40 years.
There will of course be some downsides since nothing is ever perfect. But south Korea's problem have a lot to do with their unique growth model of having the entire economy being run by a few companies and their societal pathology of being an colletivist society that also takes everything to the extreme. I mean look at north korea which became the most extreme communist state. This also isn't something new either in the premodern world the most confucian country in the world wasn't china but korea. These guys just love adopting an ideaology and taking it to the extreme.
I kinda agree with both of you, it really depends on whether Somalia’s political situation resolves itself. Somalia is at a crossroads politically.
But honestly, I’d say Somalia could easily reach $300 billion in just 5 years, assuming the real economy is already around $90–100 billion if you include the informal sector (which we know shows up in mobile money transaction volumes and in real income/costs).
Somalia’s advantage is that it’s an extremely diversified economy compared to most nations. Capital is accumulated from many different sources: diaspora investments, services, trade, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, mining, energy/fuel, construction & real estate, logistics and more. If production, expansion, investments, and exports scale up properly, I don’t see why growth couldn’t accelerate much faster than people expect. It’s not like a mono-export country that depends on only one sector.
On top of that, Somalia is already a highly urbanized, market driven, service based economy with an active financial sector a rare position for a country at this stage of development. Most African or developing countries still have large rural populations that are subsistence based and dominated by the state or multinational corporations
If the political situation stabilizes, Somalia would be starting from a larger economic base because of its diversified + highly monetized system. Scaling to $300B in a short span isn’t as absurd as it would be for, say, Ethiopia or Kenya.
Even formalizing just part of the informal economy would be a huge boost, and if you add oil + gas, uranium mining/energy, port expansions, and explosive growth in finance and trade (if political legitimacy improves), the trajectory becomes very realistic.
Also in Somalia, development spreads fast because the system is decentralized and financial penetration is high. There are no real bottlenecks hampering growth, unlike in many other countries
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Will say this last thing, if the political situation stays stable and even improves, the growth from these planned developments and more is going to be substantial.
Their plan is region wide as well:
Just imagine how much progress and development has already been driven by the private sector and the community. Now, you’re seeing increased involvement and support from the state, with more public-private partnerships and mobilization of diaspora investments.
It’s going to be incredibly transformative in the next few years, assuming the political situation doesn’t derail it
They are starting with a 5% tax on digital transactions, they announced it last year. Starting off lower to gradually increase tax compliance.
I shared it in another thread that they are establishing a National Revenue Authority(NRA) to harmonize and unite all revenue collection and sharing across all states. Create an inter-government agreement and decrease tax competition.
Just from skimming through, it honestly sounds very promising.
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Thats the big If
Are you sure its mobile money ?
They would be making a bigger fuss and more procedures if it was mobile money, 5% is big its more than a billion in tax money generated locally way more than they get from donors
If this is true it would be huge news, I think its another sort of tax no way its mobile money
It was introduced by Bihi Egeh in july 2024 so I have some faith in it, hes a very good finance minister ngl, he deserves all these awards
There's a catch tho, tax is only in Xamar not countrywide, they're probably just testing it this year, we'll see at the end of this year if it paid off or if it was rubish
I honestly think if they manage to expand this they wouldnt need external donors funding their whole budget every year, even 1b is a good start and would completely change how FGS works since they wouldnt be so dependent on external donors
The only criticism I seen so far was if they were going to tax small amounts of money like 1$, and if they were going to tax hospitals and schools
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