JimmytheGiant Debunks fabricated viral UK Ethnic/Migrants Crime Stats.

[Idilinaa]

People on this forum have a tendency to eat all the right wing nonsense and slander and dump them here. But watch how he does what i tend to do which is dig into the sources behind how they arrived at these numbers and academic reporting around these things.

Apparently no one even bothered to even click on the source and the pdf links to them that these news articles created headlines out of and find out directly where they got these crazy numbers from and how they added them together.



Just to break this down, for context and comparison.

Now how did they get to these numbers. Well it turns out it's from the CMS (Center For Migration Control) who on their blog post, includes the freedom of information act from the police.

Here is the scummy part, when you download the FOI file, there is huge sections that have been deleted

They dug around online and found the original and there it is the large section

It includes a very specific note that says that number of custody records do not equal the number of individuals. Basically 1 person could have been arrested multiple times and some people would even have been arrested and not been found guilty.

If you have 1 guy that commits 10 crimes for instance , this report would log each of them as separate incidents but done by 1 person. The police makes this very clear but what the CMS did was delete this section that specified this and count every single incident as separate individuals/people committing different offenses.

This is not even the scummiest part. They don’t use real census population data of any of these groups in London in the report, they use a fabricated number of 12.000 for each immigrant population

They just made up “12,000” as the baseline number for immigrant groups because they admitted they didn’t have the data.

So lets say we use the number CMS gives but put it against the actual population number of Afghans for example which stands on 50k according to public census data.

10k = 16.5/50K X 10.000 = 3.3 rate which is very similar to the British rate of 2.20

So you don't even get that crazy rate of 20 times higher or whatever they reported on which is BS. It's complete pseudo science junk they farted out. But it get's shared everywhere and you constantly hear it. They rarely gets fact check on it.

And it’s not new. I noticed the same with Norwegian stats (that @The alchemist helped translate). Right wing outlets spun them into clickbait headlines about Somalis being the “worst offenders.” But when you dig, it’s the same manipulation.

He also makes another key point, that is comparing a youth heavy migrant population to an elderly native population is dishonest. Most crimes are committed by young men in general , so of course the rate will look a bit skewed if you compare it like that.

Another thing he shows is how some crime areas are due to unequal urban economic factors not immigrants or cultural ethnic make up.

He creates the analogy to show this by using Blackpool which is 94% white British with high crime rate of 65.33 and compares it to Rabbat in Morocco which has a very low crime rate of 29.73. If we followed the same faulty logic they use against immigrants we can argue that white pool has high crime because it is White British culture or race.

It’s obviously ridiculous, but this is exactly the kind of false causation they leap to create. You can see the clear pattern here: very dodgy data collection, full of massive assumptions and sometimes they just outright make numbers up

 

[sums20]

So those sources painting us as one of the top 5 biggest crime commiters in the UK is a straight lie?

 

[BlackCrow]

People on this forum have a tendency to eat all the right wing nonsense and slander and dump them here. But watch how he does what i tend to do which is dig into the sources behind how they arrived at these numbers and academic reporting around these things.

Apparently no one even bothered to even click on the source and the pdf links to them that these news articles created headlines out of and find out directly where they got these crazy numbers from and how they added them together.



Just to break this down, for context and comparison.
View attachment 374984


View attachment 374986

Now how did they get to these numbers. Well it turns out it's from the CMS (Center For Migration Control) who on their blog post, includes the freedom of information act from the police.
View attachment 374987
View attachment 374988

Here is the scummy part, when you download the FOI file, there is huge sections that have been deleted
View attachment 374989

They dug around online and found the original and there it is the large section
View attachment 374990

It includes a very specific note that says that number of custody records do not equal the number of individuals. Basically 1 person could have been arrested multiple times and some people would even have been arrested and not been found guilty.
View attachment 374992

If you have 1 guy that commits 10 crimes for instance , this report would log each of them as separate incidents but done by 1 person. The police makes this very clear but what the CMS did was delete this section that specified this and count every single incident as separate individuals/people committing different offenses.
View attachment 374993

This is not even the scummiest part. They don’t use real census population data of any of these groups in London in the report, they use a fabricated number of 12.000 for each immigrant population
View attachment 374994

They just made up “12,000” as the baseline number for immigrant groups because they admitted they didn’t have the data.
View attachment 374995

So lets say we use the number CMS gives but put it against the actual population number of Afghans for example which stands on 50k according to public census data.

10k = 16.5/50K X 10.000 = 3.3 rate which is very similar to the British rate of 2.20

So you don't even get that crazy rate of 20 times higher or whatever they reported on which is BS. It's complete pseudo science junk they farted out. But it get's shared everywhere and you constantly hear it. They rarely gets fact check on it.

And it’s not new. I noticed the same with Norwegian stats (that @The alchemist helped translate). Right wing outlets spun them into clickbait headlines about Somalis being the “worst offenders.” But when you dig, it’s the same manipulation.

He also makes another key point, that is comparing a youth heavy migrant population to an elderly native population is dishonest. Most crimes are committed by young men in general , so of course the rate will look a bit skewed if you compare it like that.

Another thing he is shows is how some crime areas are due to unequal urban economic factors not immigrants or cultural ethnic make up.

He creates the analogy to show this by using Blackpool which is 94% white British with high crime rate of 65.33 and and compares it to Rabbat in Morocco which has a very low crime rate of 29.73. If we followed the same faulty logic they use against immigrants we can argue that white pool has high crime because it is White British culture or race.

It’s obviously ridiculous, but this is exactly the kind of false causation they leap to create. You can see the clear pattern here: very dodgy data collection, full of massive assumptions and sometimes they just outright make numbers up

Sadly this won't go as viral as a vid spreading hate

 

[Idilinaa]

So those sources painting us as one of the top 5 biggest crime commiters in the UK is a straight lie?

Yeah, I’d reckon it’s the same across other European countries. This whole idea of massive ‘over-representation’ is just pseudo-science junk. They inflate immigrant crime stories with mugshots , stories you could just as easily find among the white native population, who in reality commit more crime overall.

Then they exaggerate those anecdotes with faulty, manipulated data to make it seem like immigrants are disproportionately worse.

 

[NoticeNoticer]

80% of the child r@pists and pedophiles in the UK are white.

 

[Keep it a boqol]

Great find thanks for sharing this @Idilinaa

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

Informative.

 

[Idilinaa]

Another thing he is shows is how some crime areas are due to unequal urban economic factors not immigrants or cultural ethnic make up.

He creates the analogy to show this by using Blackpool which is 94% white British with high crime rate of 65.33 and and compares it to Rabat in Morocco which has a very low crime rate of 29.73. If we followed the same faulty logic they use against immigrants we can argue that Blackpool has high crime because it is White British culture or race.

It’s obviously ridiculous, but this is exactly the kind of false causation they leap to create. You can see the clear pattern here: very dodgy data collection, full of massive assumptions and sometimes they just outright make numbers up

You can see how this kind of false causation was weaponized recently against Somalis by those Kenyan xenophobes during that flag debacle. They just regurgitated right wing nonsense about Malmo and tried to link its crime rate directly to Somalis, as if crime is somehow ‘Somali culture.’ In reality, Malmo’s issue is concentrated poverty in low income immigrant districts where the Swedish government dumps people , not ethnicity.

Here's the tweet:

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Now imagine she said: ‘The highest crime rate is where the Somalis live.’ That’s laughable. I can point you to plenty of Somali communities across the West (including in Sweden) where the crime rate is low, and to Somali regions back home(Somalia/PL/SL including Ogaden the most peaceful area in Ethiopia)

On top of that, NFD in Kenya, a Somali majority area, consistently records the lowest crime rates in the whole country. Garissa , a Somali city , is even ranked as the safest urban center in East-Central Africa. They conveniently ignore all of that, because it doesn’t fit their narrative.

As for being “more peaceful than Somalis,” miss me with that. Somalia actually has one of the lowest crime and murder rates in Africa. You can check the stats :

The same is true inside Kenya: Somali-majority regions like Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera consistently rank among the safest counties in the entire country.

Tana river is another name for Garissa area.

Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Samburu among counties with lowest reported crime cases

Wajir registered 358 reported crimes, followed by Mandera with 373 cases, Lamu with 401, Samburu with 414 and Tana River with 436. Garissa recorded 646 cases, f...

eastleighvoice.co.ke

Wajir, Mandera, Lamu, Samburu and Tana River are the safest counties to live in Kenya.
According to the 2025 Economic Survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), these five counties recorded the lowest number of crimes reported to police in 2024, reflecting their relative safety compared to other parts of the country.

Garissa has literally been voted the most peaceful town in Eastern/Central Africa for decades.

 

[Idilinaa]

Sadly this won't go as viral as a vid spreading hate

Informative.

What Ultra said is really the key point , the main goal is to stay informed. Misinformation and hate always spread faster because they trigger emotions, but that doesn’t make them true.

When you’re informed, you can actually challenge lies with facts, expose the manipulation, and stop internalizing the negativity. That’s way more powerful than chasing viral outrage because in the long run, knowledge is what protects and empowers you

 

[Keep it a boqol]

What Ultra said is really the key point , the main goal is to stay informed. Misinformation and hate always spread faster because they trigger emotions, but that doesn’t make them true.

When you’re informed, you can actually challenge lies with facts, expose the manipulation, and stop internalizing the negativity. That’s way more powerful than chasing viral outrage because in the long run, knowledge is what protects and empowers you

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[Sol]

Any statistic a thinktank provides is something I'd always suggest you look up they always do sneaky shit like this

 

[Riftvalley]

So those sources painting us as one of the top 5 biggest crime commiters in the UK is a straight lie?

It might actually be worse because those studies refer to “foreign born” (which I find strange as most fobs don’t commit crime). An independent study on offending by Somali males born in the UK over the past 30 years would not make for good reading. Yes, things are getting better and there is definitely less ciyaal suuqs than previous years.

 

[Zak12]

On top of that, NFD in Kenya, a Somali majority area, consistently records the lowest crime rates in the whole country. Garissa , a Somali city

If I remember correctly, NFD also recieves little funding and has been kept underdeveloped by the Kenyan government. You posted a source about this before but O don't have it.

 

[Idilinaa]

It might actually be worse because those studies refer to “foreign born” (which I find strange as most fobs don’t commit crime). An independent study on offending by Somali males born in the UK over the past 30 years would not make for good reading. Yes, things are getting better and there is definitely less ciyaal suuqs than previous years.

That’s not really true. If you look at the actual data (as I showed in my first post), a lot of these articles/reports literally invent population figures to exaggerate crime rates.

Census data shows most Somali youth in the UK are in school or education, which makes it far less likely they’re involved in crime:

UK Somalis

Tired of the weird UK Somali jokes so let’s post positive threads and discuss their educational attainment. I could only find statistics for Somali students in Lambeth (London borough) schools so this will focus on them. Link to the research I’m using...

www.somalispot.com

It also shows how misleading those unemployment figures are. Nearly a quarter of Somalis (21%) are students who are ‘economically inactive’ because they’re in education compared to just 7% of the wider British population. On top of that, half of Somalis (48%) are under 21, compared to a much older England/Wales average.

So if an independent study actually controlled for those differences (youth-heavy population, large student base), I wouldn’t be surprised if the crime rate turned out ''lower'' than the British average. The raw numbers without context are part of what mislead people.

 

[Idilinaa]

If I remember correctly, NFD also recieves little funding and has been kept underdeveloped by the Kenyan government. You posted a source about this before but O don't have it.

It was probably this source made by a Somali author from Finland that outlines NFD's case for self-determination

https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1457018/FULLTEXT01.pdf

It’s quite ironic because even though the Kenyan state tried to economically undermine NFD and keep it underdeveloped, they ultimately failed. Now Somalis in Kenya have built a large, wealthy, educated, and politically influential class and leveraging this to reshape NFD.

All that’s left is for the haters to rage on social media and rub shoulders with white supremacists , quoting the same people who see them as subhuman , just to come at Somalis.

 

[Riftvalley]

That’s not really true. If you look at the actual data (as I showed in my first post), a lot of these articles/reports literally invent population figures to exaggerate crime rates.

Census data shows most Somali youth in the UK are in school or education, which makes it far less likely they’re involved in crime:

UK Somalis

Tired of the weird UK Somali jokes so let’s post positive threads and discuss their educational attainment. I could only find statistics for Somali students in Lambeth (London borough) schools so this will focus on them. Link to the research I’m using...

www.somalispot.com

It also shows how misleading those unemployment figures are. Nearly a quarter of Somalis (21%) are students who are ‘economically inactive’ because they’re in education compared to just 7% of the wider British population. On top of that, half of Somalis (48%) are under 21, compared to a much older England/Wales average.

So if an independent study actually controlled for those differences (youth-heavy population, large student base), I wouldn’t be surprised if the crime rate turned out ''lower'' than the British average. The raw numbers without context are part of what mislead people.

I believe Somali males (born in the uk or came at young age) have definitely been over represented in the jail statistics relative to their percentage of the population over the lasts 20-30 years. This is mainly in certain sub genres of crime ( drug dealing, drug related violence and robbery). Yes, things have improved in recent years, hence the rise of number of Somalis in higher education etc. it does not mean there has not been a historical problem though. Somalis also have large families, so if you have 5 kids and 1 child is involved in crime for every x number of families, it will skew the statistics overall. I know families where at least 2-3 Sons have gone to prison and the other siblings are all graduates. In an area close to me, there is definitely a problem with Somali dominated gangs and drug dealing, and this is an area where they’re not even the majority, as there are madows, Arabs, Afghans and so forth. Many rough areas in London have an issue like this.

 

[Zak12]

It was probably this source made by a Somali author from Finland that outlines NFD's case for self-determination

https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1457018/FULLTEXT01.pdf

It’s quite ironic because even though the Kenyan state tried to economically undermine NFD and keep it underdeveloped, they ultimately failed. Now Somalis in Kenya have built a large, wealthy, educated, and politically influential class and leveraging this to reshape NFD.

All that’s left is for the haters to rage on social media and rub shoulders with white supremacists , quoting the same people who see them as subhuman , just to come at Somalis.

Do you know exactly how much money get allocated to NFD compared to other counties? I assume its underfunded.

 

[BlackCrow]

What Ultra said is really the key point , the main goal is to stay informed. Misinformation and hate always spread faster because they trigger emotions, but that doesn’t make them true.

When you’re informed, you can actually challenge lies with facts, expose the manipulation, and stop internalizing the negativity. That’s way more powerful than chasing viral outrage because in the long run, knowledge is what protects and empowers you

That is very true

 

[Idilinaa]

I believe Somali males (born in the uk or came at young age) have definitely been over represented in the jail statistics relative to their percentage of the population over the lasts 20-30 years. This is mainly in certain sub genres of crime ( drug dealing, drug related violence and robbery). Yes, things have improved in recent years, hence the rise of number of Somalis in higher education etc. it does not mean there has not been a historical problem though. Somalis also have large families, so if you have 5 kids and 1 is involved in crime for every x number of families, it will skew the statistics overall. I know families where have at least 2-3 Somalis to prison and the other siblings are all graduates. In an area close to me, there is definitely a problem with Somali dominated gangs and drug dealing, and this is an area where they’re are not even the majority, as there are madows, Arabs, Afghans and so forth. Many rough areas in London have an issue like this.

I would disagree , I don’t think Somalis are overrepresented in prison population at all. There was actually a Somali youth crime organization that tracked this years ago, and even pointed out in a The Sun article about how they inflated numbers by randomly logging other African nationalities as Somali. In reality, crime by Somali youth has been on steady decline and was never that big to begin with.

Beyond that, crime isn’t tied to ethnicity but to certain deprived urban areas , most of which are mixed. Somalis just happened to be placed in those same high crime neighborhoods.

They never “dominated” them either. Here’s a police report from several years back which shows how isolated Somali incidents were blown up in the media. The actual number of Somali offenders was small, mostly petty low-level stuff:

Somalis have made the news for a few ruthless crimes....But police say these villains are unrepresentative. Paul Hurst, a police constable who has patrolled Toxteth's Somali neighbourhood for 21 years (and visited Somalia on a police bursary), reckons a hard core of about 30 Somali youths are active in car crime and low-level drug-dealing in the city.

Nonetheless, crime in Somali “Tocky”, as Toxteth is known, is lower than in neighbouring Picton and Wavertree, and light-touch policing has kept the peace. A repeat of the bloody Toxteth riots of 1981, when local Afro-Caribbeans clashed with police, is unthinkable, everyone agrees

https://www.economist.com/britain/2007/04/04/settling-in

So even in so-called “tough” neighborhoods, Somali areas had lower crime rates than nearby ones. Police also noted Somali youth were far more cooperative and never caused the kind of unrest seen with other groups like Carribeans, they only needed light-touch policing.

There are other cases too. For example, a South Asian politician once tried to scapegoat Somali youth for robberies. Police directly refuted that, noting robberies had actually gone down , the rise in figures was mostly people reporting “stolen” phones to claim insurance and get new ones and there is no evidence that Somalis overrepresented in street crime.

The bigger pattern is clear: Somalis get settled in hostile, deprived areas, often have to defend themselves, and then end up scapegoated.

Mr. Khabra is a classic case , a politician representing his own community’s interests, threatened because Somali entrepreneurs started flourishing in areas that were once seen as his community’s domain.

But generalizing from these neighborhoods is also flawed logic. It’s like pointing to Blackpool , 94% white with one of the highest crime rates and claiming white people are “overrepresented” in prisons.

That’s not how population wide crime works. You can’t take one concentrated area where Somalis were dumped and use that as a stand in for the whole community.

 

[Idilinaa]

Do you know exactly how much money get allocated to NFD compared to other counties? I assume its underfunded.

It most certainly was underfunded for years, they payed taxes and didn't get anything in return for it , there is like clip i shared where they demanded more:

''While the residents while agreeing to continue to paying taxes , also demanded an increase share of resources allocated to develop marginalized areas"

I am not sure about the concrete numbers of funding that gets allocated because they are broken into many counties but i can look it up and try to piece it together. It will come in handy.

Somalis are probably the single demographic that pays the most taxes across the whole country, i plan on showing this soon.