Jan 19 - Somaliland Economic Outlook

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SirLancelLord

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The Annual Headline Inflation for the year ending January 2019 decline at 7.7 percent compared to the 8.0 percent recorded January 2018.

The Annual Food Crops Inflation increase 6.4 percent for the year ending January 2019 compared to 3.4 percent recorded in January 2018. The drivers of changes were Lettuce increased to 20.0 percent for the year ending January 2019 compared to the (7.8) percent registered similar month of the previous year. Cabbages (Fresh Or Chilled) inflation registered increase to 27.6 percent for the year ending January 2019 compared to the 21.1 percent recorded for the corresponded similar month of the Previous year. Similarly, Mangoes, avocado pea inflation Increase 13.0 percent for the ending year ending January 2019 compared to 6.1 percent to corresponding month of the previous year. and, Mandarin inflation increase 7.5 percent for the ending year ending January 2019 compared to 4.1 percent corresponded similar month of the previous year.

In addition, the Annual Energy Inflation, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) decline to 8.0 percent for the year ending January 2019 compared 11.1 percent recorded Corresponding month of the previous year. The drivers were Charges – Use of Electricity inflation decline that (58.3) percent for the year ending January 2019 compared to (28.9) percent recorded for the Corresponding similar month of the preceding year. In addition, the Charcoal inflation that increased to (1.3) percent for the year ending January 2019 compared (14.1) percent recorded in Corresponding similar month. Similarly, the Paraffin or kerosene Inflation decline by (20.4) percent in January 2019 compared 12.9 percent recorded in Corresponding similar month of the previous year.

The Annual Core inflation also declined to 7.8 percent for the year ending January 2019 compared to the 8.3 percent Corresponding month January 2018. This was driven by the Sorghum grain inflation decline that registered (16.3) percent the ending January 2019 compared to minus (9.1) percent recorded during the Corresponding similarly month of the previous year. In addition, Dried, salted meat inflation decline to 13.9 percent for the year ending January 2019 compared to the 17.0 percent recorded for the Corresponding similar month of the last year. Similarly, Cement inflation decline to 12.5 percent for the year ending January 2019 compared to the 25.0 percent recorded for the Corresponding similar month. Finally, the Services inflation decline to 4.8 percent for the year ending January 2019 compared to the 6.2 percent recorded for the Corresponding similar month.

  1. Monthly Inflation
The Monthly Headline Inflation for January 2019 increased by 0.6 percent compared 0.4 percent recorded in December 2018. The Food Crop & Related items monthly Inflation increased by 3.1 percent in January 2019 compared 1.1 percent recorded in December 2018. In addition, Core monthly inflation that increased 0.6 percent during January 2019 compared the 0.2 percent recorded in December 2018. Similarly, the Monthly Energy Fuel & utilities Inflation decline by (3.1) percent for the month of January 2019 compared 1.4 percent recorded during December 2018.
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