Is Somalia An Ethiopia Checkmate

[DR OSMAN]

I am suprised with the world order not wanting a balance of power in the region of the horn and this throw your lot with one side thinking which leads to centralized losses rather then diversifying it's interest to create some sort of equilbirum situation like between pakistan n india or saudi n iran. There no real nation in africa that can give ethiopia a run 4 it's money bar Somalia. Even the wars they have with Eritrea it doesn't ever reach the scale of geopolitical interference like the ethio-somali war in 77.

I mean Russia-Cuba-South Yemen came all rushing in knowing the 'day of reckoning' was near. There is no war ethiopia has had that has reached that tipping point proving the horn needs a dual order equation like pakistan-india or iran and saudi. Plus its written in futuh al habash by arab chroniclers of the scale of the medieval war period and some of the devastating cultural practises ethiopia was force to revert to(eating raw meat cuz they couldn't cook cuz of the smoke from the fire giving away their positions to ahmed gurey). Eating raw meat may sound like a delicacy in todays world but in the past it would be seen as the lowest form of cowardice because their nothing different between you and the animals.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I think it's in both somalia n ethiopia interest we realize if we keep each other in check, it can lead to internal stability since both houses will have more fear from the other causing internal stability.

I am big fan of that, but this current order is only going to lead to ethiopia looking internally to stop fires since they are not feeling threatened externally at least in a 'subtle' way like pakistan n india dual equation. But the west is always out-dated in foreign policy, they don't weigh up long term results or even evaluate their current policies for outcomes achieved or the potential risks.

 

[Somali Saayid]

I doubt Somalia n Ethiopia can compete nowadays. The biggest and most obvious difference is our population stats and HDI compared to Ethiopia. The size of the country dwarfs us in all aspects of the matter dwarfs us. Iran n Saudi - India n Pakistan all have different advantages that give each side an uneasy balance but Somalia? But this one? Not so much.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I doubt Somalia n Ethiopia can compete nowadays. The biggest and most obvious difference is our population stats and HDI compared to Ethiopia. The size of the country dwarfs us in all aspects of the matter dwarfs us. Iran n Saudi - India n Pakistan all have different advantages that give each side an uneasy balance but Somalia? But this one? Not so much.

I know their is no challenge to ethio but thats strongly due to the world supporting a 1 nation dominance of the region leading to a lack of diversifying the order or creating a balance. Somalia did prove it can give em a good run 4 their money to the point the world intervened, even their wars with eritrea are not seen as the same scale or international importance let alone interference.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Somali Ugaas population is over-rated in somalia, israel defeated all arabs in 6 days, tigray defeated a nation of 80 million in 91 and controlled a nation of 80 million while being 5 million

 

[anon2]

I don't think either a powerful Somalia nor a powerful/stable Ethiopia can co-exist at the same time. Ethiopia's survival pretty much depends on a weak Somalia. If the Irir groups that Ethiopia created in the 80's (USC and SNM) never existed and we invaded them again in 1990, they would've never recovered, in fact Ethiopia would be 4-5 different countries right now, all whom (except Eritrea) would be reliant on the Somali coastline. Even without taking into account the resources such Oil and mineral Somalia has, we'd essentially have a monopoly on the Horn and East Africa thanks to our coastline and ports. We would be considered a "great" power in Africa and who's say matters in world affairs would be taken seriously due to this monopoly and strategic area of control, it would be hard to place sanctions on us without harming other nations.

Maybe in a different timeline this would've happened.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@anon2 the west foreign policy follows in the spirit of ancient world of throwing your eggs 1 way and this sounds good in theory but in practise, their constantly turning off fires becuz internal stability becomes weak cuz their no boogey man to keep em united. Plus west foreign policy cud be executed very quickly by threatening one side that it will pull its support to the other making the other nudge quickly to their policy like a good boy in fear of the balance of order. But now they cant do that by throwing its eggs 1 way and creating no 'balance of order' to use on either side.

Russia did the balance of order in this region perfectly, but we were new nations not knowing the wisdom behind it somalia was only 17 years old at the time, but now we have experience, the west shud tap into that strategy. After a nation has a civil war they emerge far more maturer as long as they know it's in their interest n region why balance of order is being done and how it will help their internal stability and western foreign policy goals to threaten 1 side to comply by using the other side as domino.

 

[DR OSMAN]

The other problem when u put ur eggs 1 side beside the centralized losses, the constant instability, the harder it is 4 west to pursue its foreign policy leading to no growth, it leads to other powers like china to fill the void n compete for its sphere of influence to expand. It leads to nations being sidelined being hot pickings for new empires to set up its axis using their grievance, that's a dangerous outcome two world power with two axis in one continent or one region, surely these simpletons in the west can work out the likely outcome.

 

[nanat]

The only hope for Somalia is to go to the east block.
China is hungry for any kind of resources, be it fish & other sea food, camel milk, fresh mangos & banaana, oil & gas, uranium, Farmlands, strategic Ports.
The richer china gets the more commodities and materials they'll need.