If America doesn't directly get involved militarily which I believe they won’t, to avoid triggering a wider regional war , then Israel is
f’ed.
Iran holds the upper hand with its missile capabilities. They have an essentially inexhaustible supply, while Israel’s defense systems , like Iron Dome and David’s Sling are extremely costly and prone to depletion over time.
So in the long run, what you’ll see is a steady barrage of destruction on the Israeli side. Attrition works in Iran’s favor here.
The handful of Iranian commanders Israel has killed so far means little in strategic terms. Everyone at the top of any chain of command is replaceable, and many of those targets turned out to be decoys. You can tell they were decoys because Iran’s posture hasn’t changed significantly , they recovered quickly, maintained composure, and kept escalating on their own terms.
Israel also faces a major structural challenge: they simply can’t do much damage to Iran due to the country’s sheer size, hardened infrastructure, and geographic depth.
That leaves Israel with only two real cards on the table:
1) Resorting to nuclear weapons (which would be globally catastrophic and politically suicidal)
2) Pressuring the U.S. to either intervene directly, or at least supply them with advanced bunker-busting bombs capable of penetrating Iran’s underground facilities.
Either way, without decisive U.S. support, Israel is locked into a long war of attrition it cannot win on its own.