IOG and Kenyatta join forces to prevent Somalian president's re-election

Ibro

When you want to fool the world, tell the truth.
Following Uhuru Kenyatta's lead, Djibouti's head of state is using Somaliland as leverage to damage Farmajo's reputation.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) summit on 20 December in Djibouti created divisions rather than bringing countries together, as was initially intended. Following in Uhuru Kenyatta's steps (Africa Intelligence, 21/12/20), Djibouti's head of state Ismaïl Omar Guelleh (IOG) openly showed his distrust of Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, aka Farmajo. Kenyatta and IOG met privately during the summit to discuss what they could do to prevent Farmajo's re-election.

According to our information, the two men agreed to continue using Somaliland as leverage to discredit Farmajo locally and internationally. However, they are not prepared to go so far as to officially recognise the self-proclaimed independent state that seceded in 1991.

"Our two countries"

This agreement led IOG to roll out the red carpet in Djibouti just three days following the summit for Somaliland president Musa Bihi Abdi and his minister of foreign affairs Yacin Hadj Mahamoud, who stayed for an entire week. On 31 December, Bihi chose to return to Hargeisa by car rather than by plane. This allowed Djibouti to stage a grand and stately border reopening with Somaliland, attended by Djibouti's minister of agriculture Mohamed Ahmed Awaleh and its chief of police Abdillahi Abdi Farah.

Though Somaliland has not been officially recognised by any African state, Abdillahi Abdi used the words "our two countries" during his speech at the border reopening. Upon his return to Hargeisa, Bihi sang IOG's praises in a speech broadcast on national television.

Diplomatic uproar

Over the last few months, regional tensions have been crystallising around the upcoming presidential election in Somalia (Africa Intelligence, 05/01/21). On 20 December, while IOG and Kenyatta were discussing Farmajo, the latter was meeting with his ally, Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (Africa Intelligence, 16/11/20). Farmajo can also count on the support of Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki, also a long-time enemy of IOG.

Link: https://www.africaintelligence.com/...omalian-president-s-re-election,109632630-ar1
 

Ibro

When you want to fool the world, tell the truth.
Kenyatta aims to get the Horn of Africa on to Security Council agenda

Kenya's new permanent representative to the UN Martin Kimani made no mention of the security situation in the Horn of Africa when he attended his first meeting of the United Nations Security Council on 4 January. It is, however, the priority issue on the roadmap he has been given by Uhuru Kenyatta.

Arrangement reached over Tigray

The Kenyan president has instructed his ambassador to win the Security Council's support for the security policy being carried out by Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed Ali in Tigray, which means opposing as far as possible any foreign intervention there. At the end of November, Kenyatta tried to convince Abiy to accept regional supprt but without success (Africa Intelligence, 30/11/20). The military operation carried out against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in November put Abiy in a difficult position and the Nobel Peace Prize winner launched a wide-ranging public relations exercise to try to win acceptance for his handling of the Tigray crisis (Africa Intelligence,02/12/20), which will now be echoed at the Security Council.

Abiy won Kenyatta's support when he met the Kenyan head of state on 9 December in the border town of Moyale, where the two heads of state were inaugurating a jointly operated customs post. In return, the Ethiopian prime minister reaffirmed his support for the LAPSSET Corridor (Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor). Without Ethiopian traffic, the Kenyan government would struggle to pay back the $5bn it has spent on expanding the port of Lamu.

Mogadishu in the firing line

Abiy and Kenyatta continue nevertheless to disagree on the Somalian question. While Abiy has given strong support to outgoing president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, aka Farmajo, Kenya and Somalia have broken off diplomatic relations (Africa Intelligence, 05/01/21). Kenyatta's principal fear, however, is that the elections, which are due on 8 February, will result in the mandate of AMISOM, the African Union mission in Somalia, being terminated, leading to Kenya being overrun by self-proclaimed Jihadist group Al-Shabaab, which is based in Somalia but already active in Kenya.

Link: https://www.africaintelligence.com/...a-on-to-security-council-agenda,109632964-ar1
 

The Somali Caesar

King of Sarcasm• Location: Rent free in your head
VIP
I’m a Lander but that’s cap. Djibouti aren’t cozying up to us. We (politically) have a complicated relationship to put it best. Even though the citizens of both Djibouti and SL view each other as brethren’s it’s clear politically we’re not allies.
 

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