In case Ethiopia tries to invade Eritrea, do you think Somalia and Somali groups like ONLF will stand with Eritrea ?

EritreanPost_

Inactive
HSM didn't congratulate Eritrea to its national day this year. And Somali gov didn't condemn Abiy Ahmed’s remarks on Eritrea’s Assab port and on the redsea

On the other side the deployment of Egyptian troops into Somalia keeps Ethiopia encircled and weakened.
 

EritreanPost_

Inactive
most somalis will support eritrea symbolically. we are a currently in bad perion and can't do anything.
Do you think Somalia or some regions of Somalia would let Eritrea bring in equipment to ONLF and the Somali Issas in Galbeed
 
Last edited:

reer

VIP
Do you think Somalia or some regions of Somalia would let Eritrea bring in equipment to ONLF and the Somali Issas in Galbeed
no. because somali leadership usually ranges from pro ethiopian to being pimped out by ethiopia. ismail omar geelle is leaving fellow issas galbeed alone.
 

Som

VIP
Unfortunately it's not the good old days anymore. There are somalis who would support foreigners invading our own country let alone Eritrea. I think most somalis would be against it and support Eritreans I don't think there will be any militia support. Somalis also live quite far away from the ethio-eritrea border , any fighting will take place in areas that have no Somali population
 
In case Ethiopia tries to invade Eritrea, do you think Somalia and Somali groups like ONLF will stand with Eritrea?
No chance this ain't the 90s no warlords or actors Eritrea can use as an intermediary to transport equipment to the somali region like they've done in the past.

ONLF is a spent force has no relevancy today
On the contrary Somalis will be used as canon fodder for Abiys War
the best they can hope for is being an observer.

 
Our Facebook brigade will offer their full support. We will be present on the digital battlefield🫡

1757196952197.jpeg
 

Hilmaam

i wasted time and now time wasting me
VIP
no war coming relax. Ethiopia will not be able to take port by force they will be destroyed by sanctions even if they win and try to keep it. A war would also allow countries like Egypt to pour gasoline into region. Ethiopia and Eritrea will be another Sudan with Arabs laughing and playing sides. Ethiopia talks about sea to build nationalism and support its cheap talk
 
Just make a huge diplomatic fuss about it like HSM a broken arm getting locked in a room in Addis and overdue haircut are bonus points.
 
Just make a huge diplomatic fuss about it like HSM a broken arm getting locked in a room in Addis and overdue haircut are bonus points.
Goes to show once again that the SL qabil fantasy project is just that, a fantasy. There will be no recognition without the approval of the UN recognized official government in Mogadishu. Otherwise any separatist movement throughout Africa and beyond can claim independence and fight the official government for legitimacy. Its a nightmare pandora's box that no one wants to open.
 
Regarding military support, diverting SNA forces to assist Eritrea would directly benefit al-Shabaab by reducing the pressure currently containing them. Somalia cannot afford to weaken counter-terrorism operations when al-Shabaab still controls significant territories.

Somalis/somalia would though exhaust all political partners, not purely symbolically, to exert as much financial pain ethiopia cannot withstand.

Djibouti faces constraints from hosting foreign bases that limit military operations, but Guelleh also has economic incentives to oppose Ethiopian control of Assab. So that is honestly up in the air what they can actually do.

anyways there is not a chance ethiopia can launch any attack on a sovereign nation, they can barely do so in their own borders. Ethiopia is a failed state, this asseb rethoric is an unrealistic distraction. Any attack on eritrea would finish this prolonged project they’ve had going, which they fully are aware of.
 
Somalia is in no position, in any meaningful sense, to support Eritrea neither politically nor militarily. The presence of Ethiopian troops on Somali soil underscores the complex entanglements that hinder such an alignment. If any Somali actors were to express tacit or explicit support for Eritrea, it would most likely be limited to non-state groups such as Al Shabaab, or perhaps the Ogaden National Liberation Front However, the ONLF's influence has considerably waned since its more militant heyday in the early 2000s indeed


Should Eritrea genuinely wish to rally the Somali people to its cause, it must take bold and constructive steps to mediate the longstanding disputes that have fragmented Somali unity. This would include brokering a resolution between Somalia and Somaliland, as well as addressing the protracted conflict between the Federal Government of Somalia and AlShabaab. If Eritrea were to successfully resolve these delicate impasses, it would likely gain the respect and alignment of Somalis across the political spectrum and there would be some solution to it.


As it stands now Mogadishu appears to be warming relations with Addis Ababa, particularly in light of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's apparent retreat from supporting the controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland. Puntland, entangled in its own tensions with the central government in Mogadishu, would likely adopt a posture of neutrality in the event of a renewed conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, having little vested interest in the matter. simply it doesnt concern them.


As for Djibouti, for its part, may offer discreet support to Eritrea, motivated by a strategic interest in preventing Ethiopia from securing direct access to the red sea an outcome that would diminish Djibouti’s own geopolitical relevance and economic stability .


As for Somaliland, the situation is more nuanced. While it enjoys a cordial relationship with Ethiopia, it also stands to lose considerably should Ethiopia obtain sovereign access to the coast, berbera would become useless Thus, Somaliland finds itself in a delicate quandary, uncertain of how best to proceed.


That said, it seems unlikely that Prime Minister Abiy Axmed ali would act with such recklessness as to launch a direct military incursion into Eritrean territory. The risks, both regional and international, would far outweigh any perceived strategic gain. Somalis as people might morally back eritrea but that would be meaningless since it wont have any impact at all
 
Somalia is in no position, in any meaningful sense, to support Eritrea neither politically nor militarily. The presence of Ethiopian troops on Somali soil underscores the complex entanglements that hinder such an alignment.

This part doesn’t really logically sync. Ethiopia undercut somalias sovereignty last year, somalia bringing in egyptian troops to replace the ethiopians.

How can you say that the political landscape not steady enough for somalia to support them. Are you saying that somalia would not see an expansionist state that undermined its own sovereignty, see it doing expansionist operation and not view it as ample moment to further highlight this on the political world stage. If somalia does not it further emboldens that nation. There is literally no other intelligent angle but to place that chess piece.

That said, it seems unlikely that Prime Minister Abiy Axmed ali would act with such recklessness as to launch a direct military incursion into Eritrean territory. The risks, both regional and international, would far outweigh any perceived strategic gain. Somalis as people might morally back eritrea but that would be meaningless since it wont have any impact at all

I do agree here in that ethiopia will not launch any attack on eritrea, but let’s not give too much credit to abyi himself. He is the man that brought egyptian troops/influence in somalia
 
Top